Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 250553
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
153 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 145 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2017

Only minor changes needed for this update. Loaded in the latest
observations to make sure the near term grids were on track with
current conditions. All updates were published and sent to
NDFD/web.

UPDATE Issued at 1058 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017

The forecast remains on track tonight. Mostly clear skies, calm
winds, and valley fog are all on tap for tonight. The latest obs
were ingested into the hourly forecast grids to establish new
trends.

UPDATE Issued at 753 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017

The forecast is still on track this evening with no major changes
needed. Did ingest the latest obs into the hourly forecast grids
to establish new trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 340 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017

The afternoon surface analysis does show a surface high to our
northeast, and this remains one of the main controlling factors of
the sensible weather across the Ohio Valley. We have had some CU
develop mainly in the Cumberland Valley region this afternoon and
this CU will dissipate through the evening. This surface high and
upper level high remains in general control through the period.

This will continue to be a good platform for valley fog in the
overnight and early morning hours. That said, think the overall
better mixing in the Bluegrass should limit fog production similar
to this this morning. Then forecast time heights and soundings do
show better upper level moisture working into the region as we
move toward Monday, and this will provide more high clouds to the
region. We will probably see a few CU in the afternoon Monday,
but this will again dissipate in the evening.

Overall models have handled the forecast well in the short term.
Did hold off on bringing temperatures up too much Monday given
the higher cloud potential.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017

Abnormally warm and dry conditions will remain in play through
midweek ahead of an approaching cool front set to bring near normal
temperatures back to eastern Kentucky Thursday. This will occur as a
northern stream upper low translates through Ontario and breaks down
ridging across the eastern CONUS as Hurricane Maria slowly migrates
north off the mid-Atlantic coast. Will maintain a dry forecast at
this time as the upper low lifts north and shears out with little in
the way if any surface convergence along the front as it passes
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

A stronger cold front will enter eastern Kentucky later Friday into
Friday night ahead of a ~1030 mb surface ridge. Currently expecting
dry conditions to continue into and through the weekend without any
appreciable moisture return behind the previous system.
Additionally, the positively tilted nature of the second trough will
likely keep the bulk of any precipitation east of the Commonwealth.
Fall-like temperatures will begin to take hold as lows begin to fall
into the 40s, including a few valleys in the low 40s by Sunday
morning. Highs on Saturday only look to warm into the mid-upper 60s
before rebounding a few degrees Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2017

High pressure will keep mostly VFR conditions in place through
the TAF period once again. Cloud cover should be sparse through
out the period, with a few mid and high level clouds moving across
the skies tonight, and a few diurnal CU around 4k feet possible
during the afternoon on Monday. Fog will set up once again
tonight, but should remain confined to the deeper valley
locations. IFR or lower conditions can be expected in some of the
deeper river valleys late tonight and through dawn. Included
tempo MVFR conditions at SJS and SME near daybreak since they did
see impacts from fog as it lifted out of the valleys yesterday
morning. Winds will remain light and variable, generally under 5
knots, through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...JMW



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