Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 211149
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
649 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2017

Rain still well off to the west across western Indiana and western
Kentucky. Before showers arrive late this afternoon, expect cirrus
to gradually lower as abnormally warm temperatures occur once
again.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2017

Abundant cirrus will continue to stream in from the Gulf of Mexico
downstream of a narrow upper trough stretching from the Northwest
Territories into Mexico. The northern portion of this feature,
extending through the Ohio into the Tennessee Valley, will dampen
and shear out through the day as the southern stream cuts off across
the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf of Mexico. South to southeast
surface winds will remain in place as surface ridging moves off the
Atlantic coast with low pressure following a similar course to that
of the southern U.S. upper low. Height falls coupled with arrival
of decaying energy aloft will lead to developing rain shower
chances by late this afternoon across eastern Kentucky. The lack
of any notable surface features nearby, due to a decaying cool
front in the Ohio Valley associated with a low moving through
Ontario, raises some question as to the extent of precipitation
development. Additionally, a downsloping component to the low
level flow raises uncertainty as to how much rain will fall,
especially across southeastern Kentucky nearer the higher terrain.
Nonetheless, the presence of energy aloft in tandem with a moist
warm sector airmass spells showers becoming scattered to numerous
through the evening and tonight. Deeper mixing today, owing to
the recent subsidence inversion lifting, should allow for similar
temperatures despite a relatively cooler pocket of 850 mb
temperatures to tap into. Highs look to top out in the upper 60s
to near 70 degrees.

Far southeastern Kentucky will stand a better chance for
widespread rainfall as the southern stream cutoff low pushes
east/southeast into the northern Gulf later tonight into early
Wednesday. Precipitation amounts may again be cut into with weak
downslope flow in place, but the probability of measurable
precipitation is certainly high.

Weak shortwave upper ridging will follow departure of the weakening
trough Wednesday, but it will not take much forcing to kick off a
few showers through the day given the degree of moisture in place.
Showers lingering from the morning will also be slow to exit east of
the Commonwealth as westerly steering flow weakens into the
afternoon. Although still well above normal, high temperatures
should cool off a tad from Tuesday with readings in the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 401 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2017

Extended period features potential for record high temperatures,
then turning much cooler but remaining near normal.

The period begins with a weak upper level and surface feature that
introduces a chance of showers for Thursday morning into Thursday
afternoon. These features here are quite subtle and therefore
think the chance POPs seem robust enough at this point. Overall
think the NAM seems most overdone QPF wise, but this will depend
on any convection that could develop. Based on the instability the
best chances for storms would be across the Bluegrass, but only
went slight at this point given the cloud cover and before
mentioned very subtle features. Then all eyes turn toward a upper
level trough and surface low developing across the Northern Plains
Thursday night. First thing this will do is bring warm southerly
flow and temperatures will soar into the low to mid 70s for all on
Friday. This system will deepen as the upper level closed low
takes on a negative tilt and ejects the surface low into the Great
Lakes by Friday afternoon and evening.

The feature we will be watching is the trailing cold front
combined with height falls that will bring a good shot of showers
and thunderstorms to the region. Given the dynamics of this system
with strong shear and decent CAPE we could see a isolated strong
storm Friday evening. Overall based on the upper level dynamics
would think the better chances for stronger storms would be west
of the CWA across Western KY and into portions of the Midwest.
This front will cross the region overnight Friday into early
Saturday morning ushering in much cooler air compared to what we
have become accustom. These near normal temperatures will remain
the story for the remainder of the long term period. The model
guidance becomes more divergent with the GFS wanting to bring a
clipper type system through, but little support is rendered from
the ensemble mean of the GFS or other long term synoptic guidance.
Therefore stuck with the slight to chance POPs for Sunday night
into early Monday. Some of this could be more in the way of snow
Sunday night into Monday morning, but given low confidence not
going to put this in HWO at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2017

VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon and at least a
portion of this evening. Cloud bases will lower through the day,
with MVFR ceilings materializing late this evening and tonight.
Rain showers will increase in coverage this evening and tonight
through 12Z Wednesday as south to southeast winds generally remain
near 5 knots. Pilots flying toward LEX/SDF/CVG/BNA should be
cautious of the potential for some south/southwesterly winds of
near 30 knots within the lowest 2000 feet of takeoff/landing early
this morning.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GUSEMAN



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