Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
FXUS63 KJKL 241903
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
303 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 303 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017
Satellite imagery shows diminishing coverage in the low cloud
over the southwest part of the forecast area. This trend should
continue into this evening, before mid cloud begins to increase
across the entire area overnight. The amount of cloud present
tonight is problematic and overnight low temperatures will be
dependent on the amount of cloud cover. Continued to carry a small
ridge valley temperature difference for tonight, but depending on
actual sky cover this could be underdone or overdone.
Focus for the weekend will shift to the mid and upper level low
pressure system showing up nicely on satellite over the Texas
Panhandle this afternoon. The surface low is also over the
panhandle and the entire system will lift northeast on Saturday
and Saturday night. The models are in good agreement that the mid
and upper level low will be north of St. Louis by 12Z Sunday
morning. Current data still points towards Saturday being dry
across the area, with just a slight chance of thundershowers in
the far southwest part of the area by late afternoon. Showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms will spread slowly across the area
Saturday night as a cold front approaches the area. Rain chances
Saturday night will vary from around 50 percent in far east KY to
90 percent over the western part of the forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017
A stacked low pressure system over MO at the start of the period
will be weakening as it slowly moves northeast, reaching the Great
Lakes Sunday night. A stream of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico
coupled with the approaching upper level system will bring showers
to most places Saturday night and Sunday. Weak instability should
also be present, and justifies including a mention of thunderstorms.
As the disintegrating system passes to our north, its cold front is
expected to dissolve and leave us without a change in air mass.
Models show another weakening low pressure system coming out of the
southern plains early in the work week and moving up the Ohio
Valley. This time around, cold frontal passage is expected to occur,
accompanied by an increase in the POP for Monday night into Tuesday.
The GFS and ECMWF are in a little bit better agreement now, as
compared to 24 hours ago, and are both showing the front settling
far enough to our south to allow a period of mainly dry weather from
Tuesday night into Thursday. Yet another in a parade of systems is
expected to track from the southern plains to the Ohio Valley at the
end of the week. While precip from this system can`t be ruled out on
Thursday, it`s more likely to hold off just a bit longer.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017
Clouds increased across the area early this afternoon, and expect
ceilings of 4K to 6K feet to prevail for the remainder of the day.
Southwest winds will be gusty across the Cumberland Valley and
Bluegrass regions with gusts to near 20 knots at times this
afternoon. Winds will diminish early this evening and become more
southerly. VFR conditions will prevail through the night and into
the day Saturday.