Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 260739
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
339 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL DURING THIS EARLY MORNING...WITH
CALM CONDITIONS PROMOTING FOG ONCE MORE IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE SUN BEGINS TO
RISE. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO. LATEST GFS IS
SHOWING THIS BOUNDARY SINKING SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY...BUT REMAINING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE QUESTION WITH
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...PARTICULARLY IF THEY
WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AND INTO OUR CWA.
UNFORTUNATELY...EVERY MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT OPINION ON THIS...BUT
THE ONE THING THAT IS AGREED UPON IS THAT WHATEVER DOES OCCUR WILL
BE LIGHT AND BRIEF IN NATURE. ENDED UP JUST INCLUDING SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING. BY NIGHTFALL...THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR CWA BUT WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT DOES SO.
THIS...COUPLED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP ANY POPS
IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IF THEY EXIST AT
ALL.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH FROM WESTERN KY SE TO THE
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...LEAVING MUCH OF
EASTERN KY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BY THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THIS...HIGHER POPS THAN TODAY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE
REASON FOR THIS LIES IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WHERE A SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN STRENGTHENING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. ALL MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS
FEATURE WILL PULL ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THAT POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER APPALACHIAN TERRAIN. THIS WILL
INCLUDE SOUTHEAST KY AND POINTS TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY...PWAT
VALUES ARE QUITE LOW...AND THERE IS LITTLE HELP FROM THE LLVL WINDS
AS FAR AS PRODUCING ANY DECENT SHEER OR LIFT...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OUT OF THIS SYSTEM.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM...THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SWAY TEMPERATURES MUCH. CONTINUED
SUNSHINE TODAY WILL BOOST TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S...AND THE
SLIGHT INFLUX IN MOISTURE WILL UNFORTUNATELY LEAD TO HIGHER HUMIDITY
VALUES. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HELP INSULATE OVERNIGHT...WITH EARLY
MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND 70 DEGREES. THEN FOR
MONDAY...SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT OVERALL DON/T EXPECT THERE TO
BE ENOUGH IMPACT TO SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER TEMPS FROM WHAT THEY REACHED
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MODELS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND FOR
THE MOST PART ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO PAINT VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ITS
GROUND OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE...JUST ABOUT EVERY OTHER SUITE OF
MODELS IS SHOWING A WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AT A MINIMUM. HARD TO RESOLVE THE
DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL STAY TOWARDS A COMPROMISED
FORECAST FOR MONDAY GOING WITH 30 TO 40 POPS. HARD TO GO ANY HIGHER
OR LOWER GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO REAL TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED...SO IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE STRICTLY
TIED TO DAYTIME INSTABILITY WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING VERY LOW.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED WILL COME THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY
BETTER AGREEMENT BY THURSDAY...SO WAS ABLE TO GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. WE SHOULD DRY OUT AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND
NEXT SATURDAY...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OR STALLS JUST TO
OUR SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO SEASONABLE VALUES LATE IN THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION IS MAKING FOR CALM AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE CAVEAT IS THAT A CALM AND CLEAR NIGHT
CULTIVATES FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. GIVEN THAT
LAST NIGHT MANY SITES SAW AFFECTS FROM FOG AND LAMP GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INTRODUCE THE IDEA TONIGHT...HAVE KEPT MVFR TO IFR
VIS IN THE TAFS FOR SME...LOZ...AND SJS. IF LAST NIGHT WAS ANY
INDICATION...SME AND SJS COULD BOTH DROP DOWN BELOW AIRPORT MINS
BRIEFLY AROUND DAYBREAK. DID OPT TO BE MORE CAUTIOUS FOR KSME AND
KJKL...GIVEN THAT ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH
COULD HELP NEGATE THE DROPS WE EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. OTHERWISE
EXPECT SITES TO BOUNCE BACK TO P6SM BY 13Z. AS A BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD...SCT100 WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND POSSIBLY BKN100 AT KSYM. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SOME SCT050 CU COULD ALSO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL BELOW
CRITERIA. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXIST MOSTLY PAST THE TAF PERIOD SO
LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF SH OR TSRA AT THIS TIME. WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW


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