Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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618
FXUS63 KJKL 120618
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
118 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 119 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

TRENDS HAVE RECENTLY POINTED TO SNOW BAND PASSING FARTHER SOUTH
THAN RECENTLY FORECAST...PERHAPS REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY/HIGHWAY 80. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
MUCH OF THE 0Z GUIDANCE AND RECENT SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS HAVE
SHIFTED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW TO THE SOUTH...AND THIS WOULD PUT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OR MORE ON FRI
MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY. THIS SHOULD AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. HOWEVER...SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
TAIL END OF THE MODEL COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS...LOW PRESSURE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP. ON SATELLITE...SOME LOWER AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA WHILE THE NEXT ROUND OF
CLOUDS ARE HEADING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE OF TODAY HELPED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTH.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE
WITH LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH
RETREATING TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
FOLLOWS FOR KENTUCKY A QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE WILL PUNCH THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. THE CORE OF THIS WILL MAINLY
PASS WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT ALSO BRING SOME HEIGHT FALLS
TO THE AREA FOR THE DAY. ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL
SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL STREAMS OF ENERGY BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WILL FAVOR A GENERAL
BLEND ALONG WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET AND CHILLY EVENING WITH
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE WEST AND SHORTLY AFTER IN
THE EAST. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING THE SNOW WILL TARGET THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY NOON FOR MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT COULD LINGER IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA DUE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW. THIS FIRST BATCH OF SNOW WILL BE ROBUST FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE MORNING AND RIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE HOURS.
ON ACCOUNT OF THIS...AND AS IT TARGETS SOME OF THE MAIN
THOROUGHFARES IN OUR CWA...HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OVER TO PIKE COUNTY FROM 10Z THROUGH 17Z. AN SPS
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL SPS OR ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR OUR UPSLOPE AREAS. WILL
DETAIL ALL THIS IN THE HWO...AS WELL.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER.
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT DUE TO TERRAIN DIFFERENCES BOTH NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...WENT
ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH THE MET TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND MUCH ABOVE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

...ANOTHER WINTER STORM ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...

ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY...SETTING
UP A VERY COLD DAY WHERE WE WILL LIKELY EXCEED OUR COLDEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON RECORD FOR THE DATE. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS AND CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW...SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE
MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO THE AREA. A COLD NIGHT WILL BE SEEN SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND WE COULD START SEEING
SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT
SNOW BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
PRODUCE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

THIS BRINGS US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHERE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW AS MODELS ARE STILL SORTING OUT ALL THE DIFFERENCES.
12Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE
LOW...WITH MILDER CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS
MAY SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ON MONDAY...OR FREEZING RAIN IF
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS DON`T RECOVER FAST ENOUGH.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE
SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FALLS...SO UNTIL MODELS COME INTO
AGREEMENT...TRYING TO PIN DOWN DETAILS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT.
REGARDLESS...THOSE WITH PLANS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY AWARE OF
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE COMING DAYS AND CHECK BACK
WITH THE FORECAST. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS BY TUESDAY...IT LOOKS
LIKE A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AGAIN WITH POTENTIAL
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MIDWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE TROUGH EXITS WITH STRONG RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL YIELD A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THIS MORNING/S LIGHT SNOW TO PASS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...WITH KLOZ/KSME POTENTIALLY
BEING THE ONLY SITES TO SEE ANY SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
HOWEVER MATERIALIZE FOR ALL SITES BY MID-LATE MORNING AND LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
TODAY FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-110-112>118-120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GUSEMAN



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