Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 081947
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
247 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 247 PM EST FRI DEC 8 2017

We have two weather systems we are monitoring this afternoon. The
first one is pushing northeast across the southeastern states with
a large plume of moisture extending across the southern
Appalachians. The second system is diving southeastward across the
far western great lakes. Presently, eastern Kentucky is sandwiched
between these two systems, with nothing more than a bit of mid to
high level cloud cover. This will change for a few folks tonight
as moisture associated with the system to our south brushes the
Kentucky counties bordering Virginia. RAP/HRRR have been wavering
around with the northward extent of precipitation over the past 3
or 4 runs, but its looking more likely that some light snow will
push into our counties bordering Virginia late this evening or
overnight. RAP/HRRR/GFS all indicate about 0.05 to 0.10 inch of
liquid equivalent tonight, which would support around an inch of
snowfall with a snow ratio near 15:1. The highest totals will
likely reside in the highest terrain, with drier air eating away
at totals at lower elevations. For all other locations, expect
skies to gradually clear overnight. The clearing skies and
expected light winds will allow for temperatures to plummet
tonight. Lows will fall well into the teens in many areas. The
exception will be in the far southeast where precipitation and
clouds keep temperatures in the 20s.

Any snowfall will end around daybreak Saturday with a mostly sunny
start expected. However, the second system will roll into eastern
Kentucky from the northwest by midday or early afternoon. This
will bring an increase in cloud cover and increased chances for
snow showers. Low level lapse rates will steepen up quite a bit
through the early evening hours, allowing for a few intense snow
showers that could lay down a quick coating of snow. This is
despite highs expected to reach into the mid 30s. We will likely
see temperature falls within the snow showers. However, given the
air temperatures near or above freezing, travel conditions should
not be all that impacted. Expected liquid equivalent is only going
to be a few hundredths of an inch for most, so this won`t support
that much snow. Perhaps up to a half inch in favored westerly
upslope regions. A few snow showers or flurries may linger into
Saturday evening before coming to an end. Most of the moisture
with this system will fall in the dendritic growth zone, so we
could see some decent dendrites with the snow on Saturday. This
could aid in some instances of reduced visibilities, impacting
travel in the heavier snow showers.

Temperatures Saturday night will drop back into the teens again
with another strong push of cold air moving in behind the clipper
system.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM EST FRI DEC 8 2017

Long term discussion to follow shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST FRI DEC 8 2017

A disturbance riding along a stalled frontal boundary to our
southeast will continue to yield mid to high clouds across eastern
Kentucky, but ceilings are expected to stay VFR through midday
Saturday. Winds should also remain light and variable through the
period. Some convective snow showers are expected Saturday
afternoon, and could bring sharp reductions in visibilities and
ceilings at times.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS



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