Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 010803
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
403 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
NOW SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO STALL ACROSS EASTERN PORTION HEADING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
MEANWHILE...THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TRACKING NORTH OUT OF TN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE TRACKING
ALONG THE STALLING BOUNDARY AND INTO KY. THIS AREA WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY...WILL RESULT IN SOME LIKELY POPS THROUGH
THE DAY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. LACK OF GOOD INSTABILITY TODAY
WILL ELIMINATE THE CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS FOR TODAY AND WILL GO
WITH A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE DAY. WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FRONT HANG UP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
THE BEST POPS ALONG THIS AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL GO WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE
AREA WILL THEN LEAD TO A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S
FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE HIGH SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DUE TO THIS AS WELL ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

DURING THE SHORT TERM...EXPECT A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER AND TN VALLEYS. BY THE START
OF THE EXTENDED...THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED INTO A CLOSED
LOW AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A MAJORITY OF THIS TIME...THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO KY AND OUR CWA.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM AS WELL...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE ENERGY
AND DRIVING FORCE FOR WEATHER TO BE LOCATED IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

KY/S PROXIMITY ON THE NE SIDE OF THE LOW WILL PROMOTE SE FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY...SHIFTING MORE TO THE N AND
THEN NW AND WEST AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MAKES A SMALL SHIFT SEWARD
AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. DURING THE PERIOD OF
SE FLOW...SURFACE WINDS...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL BE MORE VARIABLE
AND LIGHT. THE OVERALL FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE
ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
THROUGH OUR AREA YESTERDAY WILL HAVE STALLED OUT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS WELL AT THIS POINT...AND WILL BE THE EPICENTER FOR
ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEK. DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...EXPECT STRONG VORTICITY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...AND MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC...TO LEAD TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN OUR CWA AS WELL...MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION. THAT
BEING SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE LOW WILL FINALLY START SHIFTING SOUTHWARD BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
THE ABOVE MENTIONED WIND CHANGE TO THE NORTH. WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS
WOULD GENERALLY IMPLY A MORE SETTLED DRY PATTERN...UNFORTUNATELY
THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE. A COLD FRONT TO OUR NW WILL MAKE A QUICK
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. WHILE MODELS ARE STILL LACKING ON THE EXACT
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS COLD FRONT...WE CAN STILL EXPECT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS A RESULT. GIVEN SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENTS THIS FAR OUT...RELIED HEAVILY ON THE
SUPERBLEND...UNDERCUTTING POPS SOME SO THAT IT WASN/T LEANING SO
HEAVILY ON THE GFS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THIS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HERE AND THERE WILL
COMPOUND THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT SO WILL KEEP
AN OVERALL PREDOMINANT LOW CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
AS CONVECTION FIRES AGAIN ALONG THE AND AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD
FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...WOULD EXPECT JLK...LOZ...AND SJS TO
REMAIN IN IFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SME AND SYM MAY BEGIN TO CLEAR
OUT BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND WOULD RISE TO AT LEAST SOME
MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER


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