Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 281947
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
347 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I64. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN THE
MODEL DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY...AND THE FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. BY 2 OR 3Z THIS EVENING IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SETTLE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ON TAP TO ARRIVE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S. LOWS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL QUITE MILD AS WELL...WITH
VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON SATURDAY WITH A
CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL ACTIVE PATTERN WITH PROGRESSIVE
CHARACTERISTICS. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OPENS INTO THE
FRONT RANGE AS A CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL THEN LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY BY
SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EJECTING INTO THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY. THIS
WILL THEN BEGIN A PERIOD OF CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN WITH NUMEROUS
SHORT WAVES TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MS VALLEY AND UP INTO
THE OH VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GIANT RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTING EAST
OVER THE OH VALLEY...BRINGING AN END TO THE WET PATTERN.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN KEEPS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF KENTUCKY AND
ALONG THE OH RIVER. THIS WILL KEEP EAST KENTUCKY IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WITH
THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO THE
AREA BY NOON ON SATURDAY. WITH PLENTY OF DEVELOPMENT AND LIMITED
CAPE...WILL NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG STORMS BUT WILL KEEP A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. BY SUNDAY...A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. WHILE CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING CONVECTION FROM SATURDAYNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY WILL BE AN ISSUE...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR A CONCERN OF SOME STRONG STORMS. HAVE PUT A
MENTION OF THIS INTO THE HWO.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A COOL PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. A
FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. FINALLY...HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETTLE IN BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED LEADING TO
A COOL AND DRY PERIOD BEYOND THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CU HAS FORMED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...WE ANTICIPATE
THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION...ONLY VCTS WAS USED IN THE TAFS TO ADDRESS ANY SHOWER
OR STORM ACTIVITY THAT MAY OCCUR. IF AN AIRPORT WERE TO EXPERIENCE
A SHOWER OR STORM...MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
WILL START OUT BKN AT AROUND 3K...AND SHOULD BECOME SCT AT AROUND
5K BY AROUND 0Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH OUT
THE PERIOD. PILOTS CAN EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH
VALLEY FOG. THIS FOG MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE VALLEYS AND AFFECTS THE SURROUNDING
RIDGETOPS. THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR



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