Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 270529
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
129 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

AT THIS EARLY MORNING HOUR A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS EASTERN KY BASED ON WSR-88D RADAR. THE
STRONGEST STORMS ARE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY.
UPDATED POP GRIDS TO DEAL WITH THE LINE OF STORMS. OTHERWISE MORE
MINOR UPDATES NEEDED THIS UPDATE AND ALSO UPDATES TO THE WATCH
WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1101 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

MADE MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS TRENDS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 855 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPDATED FORECAST ELEMENTS TO BLEND IN THE REALITY OF EARLY
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WERE
MAKING ONLY VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. OTHER STORMS OVER
WESTERN KY WERE MAKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD...AND IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER WILL EVENTUALLY PRODUCE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH IN THE JKL
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z AND 06Z. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN
AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

KEEPING AN EYE ON A LOT OF DIFFERENT WEATHER FEATURES TODAY.
FIRST...A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY RESIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FIRING OFF ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A
BOWING MCS IS WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. THIS
BOW HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME
HAIL. ITS NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE ST LOUIS AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AHEAD OF THIS BOWING SYSTEM
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MUCH OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS
CAPPED WITH NOT CONVECTION PRESENTLY. HOWEVER...CAP HAS WEAKENED
SUFFICIENTLY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64
TO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO POP UP. THESE SHOWERS WON`T HAVE A
BOUNDARY TO FOCUS THE INSTABILITY...SO REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OUT OF THESE OTHER THAN A QUICK PASSING SHOWER.

MAIN SHOW WILL LIKELY COME AS THE MCS OUT WEST PUSHES ACROSS
KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG IS SOUTHWARD...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 00Z. LATEST HRRR/ARW/NMM ALL ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE
HANDLING OF THE MCS...AND THEY HAVE IT BREAKING APART AS IT
CROSSES CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
GONE CATEGORICAL WITH POPS FOR OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN
AREAS...TRAILING OFF TO LOWER POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE WEAKENING SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...EXPECTING SOME SUBSIDENCE TO OVERSPREAD
EASTERN KENTUCKY...PRODUCING A LULL IN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
HOWEVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN OUR VICINITY...AND
POSSIBLY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO TOMORROW...HAVE KEPT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. BY TOMORROW...QUESTION CENTERS
AROUND WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FRONT SITTING OVER THE AREA...WITH
SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MORE
SHOWERS...HARD PRESSED TO FIND MUCH SUPPORT SYNOPTICALLY FOR ANY
SHOWERS. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP...WE MAY
HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS TO LIMIT INSTABILITY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL
STAY LOW ON THE POPS THROUGH TOMORROW. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE
LATE IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE AREA
ALONG WITH A PEAK IN DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BETTER
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR MORE COVERAGE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS...BEFORE IT EXITS EAST LATE AT NIGHT.
OVERALL...EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 60 AND HIGHS INTO THE 70 ON
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKING ON TRACK FOR
OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
GRADUALLY DAMPEN AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE
PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN
MOVE IN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING A DRY END TO THE
WORK WEEK. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD. SOME
OF THIS ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND ALLOW FOR TROUGHING TO EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE NORTH...HOWEVER
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MODEST FORCING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A
WEAKER CAP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL WIND DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE EXITS AND RIDGING STARTS BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND FORCING ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING...SO DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A MORE
DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. TROUGHING WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY AND POSSIBLY
TUESDAY...JUSTIFYING CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER 12Z RUNS HAVE SHOWN
MORE OF A POTENTIAL REPRIEVE BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE UNDERCUT
THE GIVEN BLENDED POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND THEN LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

MOST OF THE HEAVIER STORMS ARE ON THE WAY OUT OF THE REGION AT THIS
EARLY MORNING HOUR. BEST STORM COVERAGE RESIDES ACROSS THE FAR
EAST THIS HOUR. THIS WILL LEAD TO QUICK LOWERING OF VIS AND CIG TO
MAINLY MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR NEARER THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE MOST
SITES HAVE IMPROVED TONIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HEAVIER STORMS.
DID KEEP SOME MVFR IN THE FAR NORTH FOR CIGS JUST GIVEN THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND THIS SEEMED MATCH UP WITH THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE MESO GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A LULL
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SOME -SHRA IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE
MORNING. THEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON MORE CONVECTION COULD FIRE
UP...HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH WHERE THAT
WILL OCCUR. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP THE VCTS/-SHRA GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DJ


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