Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 031539
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1139 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED TO BRING UP POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
ONGOING WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE ACTIVITY MAY FILL IN BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...SO WILL STICK WITH HIGHER
POPS DURING THIS TIME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HWY 80 INTO THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED TO BLEND MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT. THEY
HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING...BACKBUILDING...AND EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS...WITH A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS THE PRECIP BEING
SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...OVERTOP OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE ON A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION...RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUING
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. DRIER AIR SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY IN
FROM NW TO SE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN OVERALL DIMINISHING
TREND TO PRECIP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH EWD OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAT WILL LINGER. BY MONDAY...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL FINALLY FLATTEN OUT... DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY RULING THEM OUT. MONDAY MIGHT
BE ONE OF THE DRIEST DAYS...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS WAY
TO THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FRONT
DROPPING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL
OUT OVER KENTUCKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LEADING TO
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BUT WITH
THE HUMIDITY RETURNING...IT CERTAINLY WILL FEEL WARMER THAN IT
REALLY IS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH
LOCALIZED IFR AND VFR. THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SETTLE INTO MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. A DETERIORATION TO
IFR IS FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL



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