Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 201724
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1224 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWS THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MOIST AIR OF 60-65F. PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGES FROM THE LOW ORBITERS MICRO-WAVE SENSORS AND DERIVED FROM
THE GOES SOUNDER SHOW FAIRLY HIGH VALUES OF ABOUT 25MM IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE EXPANDING STRATUS FIELD WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES
TODAY. STILL...MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WILL PROBABLY REACH HEAT INDICES OF 100F OR HIGHER FOR SOME PART OF
THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...WHICH IS THE CRITERIA FOR AN
ADVISORY IN THOSE AREAS. SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS THE AREA THAT WILL
MOST LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THE STRATUS...DEPENDING ON ITS
PERSISTENCE.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY ALONG THE DRY LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG
CAP AT 650MB THAT WOULD REQUIRE COOLING OF ABOUT 5C BEFORE
CONVECTION COULD BE REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A 600 DM ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ATOP THE REGION ON
MONDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAT RELATED HEADLINES
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S HIGHS ARE LIKELY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL HELP PULL GULF MOISTURE
NORTH...WITH AFTERNOON SFC TD/S ANTICIPATED TO BE ABOVE 60F EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
OUR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COUNTIES. APPARENT T/S ARE SHOWN TO
ECLIPSE 100F SHORTLY AFTER 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF A HAYES CENTER TO AINSWORTH LINE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 105F OR GREATER FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOLT AND ALL OF
WHEELER COUNTY. NOW THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE PASSING ATOP THE RIDGE WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY DELAY OR SLOW AFTERNOON HEATING. FOR THIS GENERALLY SIDED
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PRECIPITATION
SIGNAL WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
DISCOUNT THE MODEL PROJECTIONS AS MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR
SATURATION IS ROOTED ABOVE 600MB AND H7 TEMPERATURES OF 16C OR
WARMER WILL CAP THE REGION. IF A HIGH BASED STORM WERE TO
FORM...SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WIND.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.  HIGHS WILL BE
MODERATED SOMEWHAT BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE FRONT UNDERCUTS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR THE NORTH...MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE SOUTH.  WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WELL
CAPPED.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT SLIGHTLY WEST AND AMPLIFY ATOP THE
ROCKIES WHILE A DEEP UPPER LOW CARVES SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  WEAK EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY TARGET A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WEST OF THE CWA...WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF
STORMS POSSIBLE.  ALLBLEND PROCEDURE GENERATED POPS IN NEARLY EVERY
EXTENDED GRID...WHICH IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE.  SINCE TIMING ON WEAK DISTURBANCES OPERATING
ON THE FRONT VARIES FROM RUN TO RUN...AND MODEL TO MODEL...WILL
GENERALLY LEAVE THE BLEND PROCEDURE ALONE FOR NOW.  TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS
TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR LATE IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE AREA OF STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS
MOVED TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...LEAVING KVTN AND
KLBF TERMINALS WITH SKC. WIND SHOULD STAY BELOW 12 KTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST/SOUTHWEST.
THE HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT DEVELOPED STRATUS THE PREVIOUS TWO
MORNINGS WILL STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 THIS
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LIKELY TO BE
15 TO 20 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...WIND WILL BE
BELOW 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S IN THE
PANHANDLE...THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005>010-026>029-
038.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SNIVELY
FIRE WEATHER...SPRINGER





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