Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 190825

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
325 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

The bank of 7kft midlevel cloudiness along and west of Highway 83
should move east today with the approach of a 700mb warm front.
The temperature forecast leans on the warmer RAP model which was a
few degrees warmer than guidance in some areas.

All models show stratus working into the fcst area late tonight. A
low level jet will be operating. The RAP and HRRR models show
convection firing on the Laramie range 18z-21z this aftn. This
convection could be carried east through the panhandle and into nrn
Neb tonight. Pops are isolated and this may be generous.

South winds increase to 20 to 25 mph this afternoon and weaken to 10
to 15 mph tonight. Lows tonight fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s
with the winds in place. These lows could be too cold given that the
clouds this morning are holding lows in the mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

For the most part, conditions remain dry through the first part
of the weekend as a high amplitude upper level ridge and resulting
surface high pressure remain in place across the central United
States. With this surface high in remaining fairly stationary, the
main concern through the first half of the weekend will be rising
temperatures. High temperatures will start off in the mid- 70s on
Friday and slowly rise into the low 80s by Sunday. Overnight lows
will start off in the mid-50s on Friday night and rise up into the
upper 50s by Saturday night.

The next major weather concern will be on Sunday night as a
low pressure system tracking across Saskatchewan and Manitoba
will drag a cold front across the northern plains. Current models
show some disagreement in the timing and location of thunderstorm
development for this system. However, confidence is high that
plenty of moisture and instability will easily allow
thunderstorms to develop across the region on Sunday afternoon and
evening. With all the ingredients in place, the potential for
storms to become severe Sunday evening/night is high. However, due
to the lack of agreement between models and this system still
being 5 days out, have left in likely pops (near 60 percent) for
the eastern half of the CWA for this forecast cycle.

This cold front not only will bring some thunderstorms to the
area, but also some cooler temperatures. High temperatures drop
into the mid to upper 70s for Monday and Tuesday with overnight
lows in the upper 40s to low 50s for Sunday night and Monday
night. Dry conditions return on Monday, but is quickly replaced by
more rain and thunderstorm chances for Tuesday and Wednesday as a
series of disturbances track across western Nebraska.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

For the KLBF terminal: Expect scattered to broken CIGS of 8000 FT
AGL overnight tonight through most of the day on Thursday. Some
limited clearing is expected Thursday evening with scattered CIGS of
25000 FT AGL expected. For the KVTN terminal: Expect clear skies
overnight with scattered high clouds developing Thursday morning.
By Thursday afternoon, CIGS will range from 8000 to 20000 FT AGL.
At both terminals, winds will be southerly at 10 to 15 KTS tonight
increasing to 15 to 30 KTS on Thursday.


Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

River gages in Colo suggest an increase in flows on the South
Platte River which could be a a result of snowmelt. A strong
thermal ridge will develop this week with h700mb temps rising into
the lower teens Celsius. It will be interesting to see how this
impacts the snowmelt in the rockies which will eventually cause a
rise on the South Platte river in Nebraska.

Controlled reservoir releases continue to cause minor to moderate
flooding of the North Platte river. There are no significant changes
to the North Platte river forecasts east of Lisco. The North Platte
river at North Platte will rise to near 6.5 feet this week as result
of an additional 500 cfs release from Lake McConaughy.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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