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000
FXUS63 KLBF 130850
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
350 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

AT H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WITH TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE RECORD HIGHS FOR
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. RECORD AT LBF 91 FOR TODAY. LOT OF CIRRUS
PUSHING OVER THE RIDGE THIS MORNING. MODELS ALWAYS TEND TO UNDER
ESTIMATE THIS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 25C WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE
TO LOW 90S. RUC COMING UP WITH 95 FOR NORTH PLATTE WHERE MORE
INSOLATION EXPECTED AND WARM FRONT MAKING BIG PUSH. SOME CONVECTION
EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES TO STAY WARM WITH WAA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LOWS EXPECTED IN THE 50S AND 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

A HOT DAY STILL ON TAP FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE 13/00Z NAM CONTINUES TO OFFER THE FASTEST
SOLUTION...AND HAS THE FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND BRING
THE FRONT IN TOWARD EVENING. THE NAM COULD BE ONTO SOMETHING...AS IT
MAY BE FASTER AS A RESULT OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ROLLING ACROSS ND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD GIVE THE FRONT AN EXTRA PUSH WITH
ANY OUTFLOW FROM THE COMPLEX. A QUICK GLANCE AT THE NEW 13/06Z NAM
SUGGESTS THE FRONT NOW A TAD SLOWER. AT THIS TIME WILL STICK CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH SIDED TOWARD A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE THE HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND
UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR THE
HOT WEATHER...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS AND DEEP MIXING UP
THROUGH 600 MB. A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DEEP MIXING. MODELS
INDICATE WIND SPEEDS NOT QUITE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT WINDS MAY
END UP BEING STRONGER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE DUE TO SUCH DEEP
MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALSO A CONCERN WOULD BE ANY DRY LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AS THE CAP WEAKENS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO KS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTERACT WITH THE
INSTABILITY...SO THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
MAINTAINED.

SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS KS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE FRONT WHICH STALLED
WEDNESDAY ACROSS KS...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...GULF
MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE 13/00Z GFS INDICATES
H85 DEW PTS RISING INTO THE 10 TO 12C RANGE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND INCREASING FURTHER TO 13 TO 15C THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL SUBTLE UPPER
LEVEL WAVES EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM DEVELOPING WESTERN
CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SET UP WOULD APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING AS THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. THE GFS OFFERS JUST THIS
SCENARIO...WITH THE ECMWF SIMILAR BUT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST WITH THE
BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NAM MODEL NOT QUITE OUT FAR
ENOUGH TO HELP WITH THIS FORECAST PERIOD YET. FOR NOW WILL NOT GET
CARRIED AWAY WITH POPS...WITH THE GFS PROBABLY A TAD ON THE MOIST
SIDE BOTH WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND QPF.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN
EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE...BUT
DEVELOPMENT IN OR JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SEEMS LIKELY BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY BOTH THE 13/00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS DRIVE A COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WOULD PLACE THE BEST FOCUS
FOR RAIN TO OUR EAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES GOING
IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS SOMEWHAT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE...80S
SEEM REASONABLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH COOLER UPPER 60S
AND 70S BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER A
COLD FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ELSEWHERE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
06Z MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TODAY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 30S AND 40S MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...BASICALLY WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS. TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WINDS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
TO THE LOW 20S MAKING IT MARGINAL FOR HIGHLIGHTS. WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW. TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...HIGHLIGHTS LOOK POSSIBLE...AS WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
INCREASE DUE TO DEEP MIXING...AND DRY LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL DUE TO THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF ANY STORM THAT WOULD HAPPEN
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...POWER