Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 290411
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1111 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EXPANSIVE WRN STATES RIDGE WITH
SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING NWD ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OFF THE COAST
OF CA WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED PV ANOMALIES RIDING UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND COMING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LEAD PV
ANOMALY COMING INTO NRN SD ATTM AND GENERATING SCT-BKN AC/CC. IN
ADDITION...SMOKE PLUME EVIDENT ORIGINATING FROM SEVERAL FIRES IN
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN AND STREAMING SWD INTO THE PLAINS AS WELL.
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SEEING NRLY SFC FLOW BEHIND COLD
FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO CENTRAL KS. UPSLOPE FLOW
GENERATING TCU/TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SERN WY AND THE CO
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY PUTTING
THE AREA IN NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA WHERE TERRAIN FORCED CONVECTION WILL TRACK SWD THRU THE
NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEAK SFC HIGH MOVES IN OVERNIGHT SO MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

WEAK HEIGHT RISES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY AND WITH GOOD INSOLATION EXPECTED SHOULD SEE
MAX TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS /SUCH AS HIRES ARW AND NMM AND ALSO CSU WRF/ INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSRA MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH LOCATION DIFFERS
SUBSTANTIALLY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY ONE
SCENARIO...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE BE ABLE TO FOCUS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY
BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS IS LIMITED. AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND
PRECIP CHANCES LEFT OUT FOR NOW BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
AS MORE HIGH RES MODELS BECOME AVAILABLE FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERNS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN STRONGER
WAVES MOVE OUT OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BEGIN TO KNOCK THE WESTERN
RIDGE DOWN. WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME HUDSON BAY LOW BEGINS TO
INTENSIFY SENDING A TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND
RETROGRADING FURTHER WEST. WAVE TIMING IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE THE MAJOR PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE
MID 90S WITH 27 TO 30C AT 850MB OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. COULD BE
TEMPERED BY DENSE CIRUS COMING OVER THE RIDGE. SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS STRONGER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DRYING OUT
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND UPPER RIDGE
REBOUNDS SOME AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH TH WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 80S THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NO WEATHER-RELATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER





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