Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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129
FXUS63 KLBF 011734
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. DEFORMATION BAND STRETCHES ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. PRECIP TYPE GENERALLY RAIN EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83 THEN A MIX OR A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TO THE WEST OF
83. TEMPS HAVE HELD FAIRLY STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40...HOWEVER THE LAST HOUR HAS SEEN A RISE OF A
DEGREE IN A FEW SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT
AN END TO THE RAIN/SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE BAND HAS BECOME
MORE BROKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MOST MODELS HAVE THE CWA DRY FOR THE
AFTN...HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES IN LIGHT
SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THE DRY AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL GET DRAWN INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH RISING
TEMPS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM
DEPARTING LOW...WITH THE FORECAST PRIMARILY DRY. WITH TEMPS
ALREADY STARTING TO RISE...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SNOW TO QUICKLY
END WITH LIQUID PRECIP TO BE THE PREDOMINATE P-TYPE. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR THE AFTERNOON AS SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL LIMIT HEATING. HAVE
GONE WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE AS MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM
THE PAST FEW DAYS. BY TONIGHT DECREASING CLOUDS COMBINE WITH
LIGHT WINDS FOR A GOOD SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS
LIKELY TO DIP BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST WESTERN LOCATIONS. STILL A
LITTLE EARLY FOR ANY FROST HEADLINES...AND MANY LOCATIONS WITH
THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED...JUST SAW ACCUMULATING SNOWS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MID RANGE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT
BROUGHT PERSISTENT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA... A SHORTWAVE WILL
TRAVERSE THE SANDHILLS LATE MONDAY.

MONDAY... MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS EXCEPT FOR COOLED THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER NEAR COLORADO TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE REMAINING
SNOW PACK. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE...
BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY HELP OFFSET WAA.
WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE WAVE AND MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS... INTRODUCED SCHC POPS BEGINNING 18Z. NAM KEEPS
THE AREA DRY DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. GFS AND EURO
ARE MORE BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE AND DEPICT AN AREA OF 500-700HPA
SATURATION OVER THE CWA LATE MONDAY. LIFT IS STILL RATHER WEAK IN
GFS SOUNDINGS... BUT MOISTURE AND FGEN MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH IN THE
MID LEVELS TO OVERCOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.

TUESDAY... SHUT OFF POPS BY 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE WAVE IS FAIRLY QUICK PASSING. SWITCHED PTYPE TO
RASN WEST OF NEB HWY 61 WHERE HIGHER ELEVATION AND COOLER LOW TEMPS
WOULD SUPPORT A MIX. AS THIS LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT AT
MOST... SHOULD NOT BE ADEQUATE DYNAMIC COOLING TO RESULT IN ALL SNOW
AND THUS KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS AT ZERO. DID PUSH MAX TEMPS UP A
DEGREE... WHICH LEANS TOWARD MAV AND MET. SKY SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE... AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
NOTICEABLE WAA ACROSS THE REGION. GFS AND NAM BRING H85 TEMPS TO 11C
NORTH CENTRAL AND 14C FAR WEST. PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR UNINHIBITED MIXING TO NEAR 700HPA... AND WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AT 850HPA... HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR 70F.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... THIS PERIOD IS DOMINATED
BY A BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT... RESULTING IN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. WEAK WAA AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. MOISTURE ADVECTION REALLY
TAKES SHAPE LATE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY. GFS AND
EURO ARE PUSHING SFC DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S ALONG/EAST OF HWY
83 THURSDAY PM AND MID/UPPER 50S FRIDAY PM. BOTH MODELS HAVE A LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF THE SPEED
CONVERGENCE IS OVER THE SANDHILLS... SO FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
RETAIN CHC POPS OVERNIGHT. THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW REACHES THE
SOUTHWEST DESERT SATURDAY... WHICH BEGINS THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN PHASE
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE H3 JET FEATURES A 100+KT STREAK POINTED
TOWARD EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY PM... AND WITH DEW POINTS NOW
PUSHING 60F... THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. GFS AND
EURO ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC LOW NEAR KSNY
AND H5 LOW OVER KLAS 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAKLY DEVELOPED CUMULUS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS. THE GUIDANCE PROJECTS
THESE CLOUDS TO REMAIN AOA 4000FT AGL...THUS VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
FOR MOST SITES. FAR EASTERN TERMINALS SUCH AS KONL AND KBBW ARE
STILL DEALING WITH MVFR STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW...BUT CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH TODAY...BUT WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THE WIND WILL LARGELY TURN WESTERLY
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 819 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE UPPER REACHES OF
THE ELKHORN RIVER. THE RIVER GAGE AT ATKINSON HAS JUST REACHED
FLOOD STAGE AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
FOR AT LEAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...JACOBS
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG



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