Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 210041
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
741 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Primary forecast concern over over the next 24 hours will be
cloud cover...which will once again impact
temperatures...especially high temperatures on Saturday.

The upper level low over Northern California...will begin to
slowly translate to the northeast into portions of Northern Idaho
and Western Montana over the next 24 hours. Further to the east
across the Northern and Central Plains...upper level ridging will
also begin to be shunted off to the east...in response to the
advancing system out of Northern California. Southerly to
southeasterly low level winds...will aid in further low level
moisture transport into Western and North Central Nebraska. This
increase in low level moisture...will once again yield another
day of stratus...and possibly light drizzle across much of the
region during the morning hours on Saturday. The potential for
light drizzle is represented well in both NAM and GFS Bufkit
sounds...so have retained the mention from prior forecast. The
aforementioned stratus deck will also help to keep high
temperatures well below normal tomorrow...with current forecast
highs only expected to reach the mid-60s to low 70s...with
tomorrows low 70s possibly being a stretch given that today`s
(Friday`s) stratus has kept temperatures in the low to mid-60s.
Finally...have retained the mention of thunderstorms for Saturday
afternoon...however...have kept the mention as only a slight
chance...as development will depend heavily on the extent of
mixing and cap erosion.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Upper low moves east through the weekend with height rises and
ridge building into the northern plains. Gulf is open and strong
warm air advection and moisture advection into the northern
plains with dew points rising into the lower 60s. isolated
thunderstorms possible Saturday night but fairly strong cap. Cold
front will move into western Nebraska Sunday morning with
thunderstorms developing to the northwest in the am. Front and
storms spreading east through the day. Best dynamics through the
afternoon and early evening from kvtn to klbf and east. Slight
risk over all of western Nebraska through the day on Sunday.
Temperatures have been lowered with stratus ahead of the front.
Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s southwest. Qpfs have been
increased and may have to be ramped up more with above normal pws
and slow progression of front. Boundary stalls out over western
Nebraska as upper low shears out into central Canada. This
boundary will be the focus for thunderstorm development through
mid week. Highs around 80 east of the boundary and in the 70s to
the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 737 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

MVFR stratus continues across the eastern portions of the
area...with some mid/high clouds to the west. The stratus is
expected to spread west overnight with the chance for some
fog/drizzle to develop overnight. Coverage is uncertain as winds
remain up and may limit the precipitation and result in just low
clouds. Stratus continues into Saturday with southeast winds
increasing for the afternoon hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Controlled reservoir releases continue to cause minor to moderate
flooding of the North Platte river. There are no significant
changes to the North Platte river forecasts east of Lisco. The
North Platte river at North Platte will rise to near 6.5 feet this
Tuesday as a result of an additional 500 cfs release from Lake
McConaughy.

South Platte river will continue elevated over western Nebraska
but below flood stage.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jacobs/Moldan
LONG TERM...Power
AVIATION...Masek
HYDROLOGY...Power



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