Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 111636
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1036 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

At 09z...The deformation band which has moved east since last
evening has finally begun to diminish, with a new deformation band
developing from near Franklin through Albion. Arctic high pressure
continues to build into the region. Northwest winds continue to range
from 20 to 35 mph, causing patchy to areas of blowing snow to
continue. Temperatures ranged from 6 at Valentine and Ainsworth, 13
at North Platte and 17 at Ogallala. Lowest wind chills of -17 at
Valentine and Ainsworth.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1034 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Cancelled the remaining Winter Weather Advisory at 1630z. A check
of area road cameras showed just a couple areas of minor blowing
snow conditions, mainly right along the road surface. Wind chills
have also risen above -20.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

An upper trough will cross the mid Missouri Valley today. Lingering
light snow will exit the far eastern zones soon after 12z this
morning. Snowfall amounts across southwest Nebraska into the Central
Sandhills last last evening and overnight reached 2 to 4 inches in
most locations. As northwest winds range from 20 to 35 mph, patchy
to areas of blowing snow will remain possible this morning.
Therefore, a winter weather advisory for blowing snow will remain in
effect until noon cst. A cold airmass has invaded the region, with
little recovery to highs today across much of north central
Nebraska. Highs only from 10 to 15 above most of the north central,
while the far southwestern areas reach the upper 20s. Behind the
upper trough axis, skies will become mostly sunny all areas as the
day progresses.

An upper level disturbance located across Idaho early this evening,
will follow northwest flow aloft tonight across Wyoming into western
South Dakota.  This will bring a chance for light snow and flurries
to the northwest Sandhills after midnight. Low level winds will veer
to the south and southeast overnight. Winds will remain light
overnight, except increasing south winds to 10 to 20 mph across
Sheridan and northwest Cherry county. Another cold night with lows
falling below zero across the northeast, to around 10 above far
southwest. Wind chill values will range as low as 10 to 15 below
across the north central.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Several weak disturbances and associated Arctic air intrusions will
dominate through the weekend into the first of next week. By the
middle and end of next week mild Pacific air should move back into
the region. Overall this cold snap won`t last as long as the
previous and we`ll see a brief break on Sunday.

The first in a series of weak disturbances will dive southeast
across the area Friday. Models continue to indicate that a period
of light snow is likely, mainly across northern Nebraska.
Accumulations look to be around an inch or so. Arctic air will
continue to flow southward Friday night into Saturday behind this
system. Saturday night into Sunday low pressure will deepen across
western South Dakota. WAA will develop to the south and east of
the low and bring a mild day to the area Sunday, with highs in the
35 to 45 degree range. As the low moves east across South Dakota
Sunday night and a Arctic cold front will plunge south through the
area. A period of light snow is possible with the front followed
by a cold day Monday. The cold air will linger into Tuesday, then
by Wednesday upper level ridging builds east from the Rockies into
the central plains. This should bring a nice warm up that lasts
through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 532 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

A winter system is exiting western Nebraska this morning. Gusty
nothwest winds of up to 30 kts today, will quickly diminish by
22z, with a light southeast wind developing overnight. Broken high
cloudiness to begin the TAF period will give way to only a few
high clouds today. An increase in mid clouds is expected tonight,
as a weak weather disturbance approaches the area.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Snively
SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Roberg



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