Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 281802
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
102 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SANDHILLS HAS SHOWN
LITTLE MOTION FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SHORT RANGE MODEL
CONSENSUS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGESTS IT WILL DRIFT NORTH
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WARM
SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY RISE INTO THE 40S. THE RAP MODEL WAS THE COOLEST
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. AN AREA OF MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN AZ THIS
MORNING. THIS MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN EAST WEST BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SWRN NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER FORCING DEVELOPS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE. THE BETTER RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE
800MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE NAM WAS EVEN
SUGGESTING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AS DEEP LIFT
TAPS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND DYNAMICALLY COOLS THE ATM. THIS
FEATURE IS UNDER REVIEW.

NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS SHOWN IN THE NAM AND K INDICES REMAIN IN
THE 20S INDICATING NO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MID RANGE...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE FRONT
RANGE AND ESSENTIALLY STALLS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.

FOR FRIDAY... LOWERED MAX TEMPS AREA WIDE BY 1-2 DEGREES. THE MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH CAA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER. H85 TEMPS HOVER AROUND 0C COMPARED TO 2C
ON THURSDAY. INCREASED POPS EARLIER IN THE DAY... ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST NEB. MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING IS QUITE STRONG AND SATURATION
IN THE 500-700HPA LAYER OCCURS FOR ALL AREAS BUT EXTREME NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 12Z. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
AND LIFT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE OR STEADY RAIN AT KLBF
BEFORE 12Z... BUT GFS AND EURO ARE A TAD SLOWER.

FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY... EXPANDED RASN TO COVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA... GENERALLY TO HWY 83. TEMPERATURES ARE
TRICKY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S... BUT SUBFREEZING TEMPS
EXIST NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE. NAM IS COLDEST WITH A TEMP
PROFILE SUGGESTING ALL SNOW AS FAR EAST AS KLBF... BUT GFS SOUNDINGS
ARE WARMER IN THE LOWEST 200HPA AND SUGGEST ALL RAIN OR RASN. THE
POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR ALL SNOW... ESPECIALLY IF DYNAMIC
COOLING PROVIDES THE EXTRA OOMPF. GIVEN THE COOL/COLD AIR ALREADY
SITTING OVER THE AREA... FELT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A WINTRY
MIX. NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP SATURATION AND
OMEGA >20US FRIDAY PM ACROSS THE AREA... AND ENSEMBLES SHOW MIXING
RATIOS WELL ABOVE CLIMO...SUGGESTING LIQUID PRECIP TOTALS OF AT
LEAST 1-2 INCHES ARE ATTAINABLE.

SATURDAY... COOLED HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO DUE TO CONTINUED CLOUDINESS
AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AS SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION AND
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A BROAD REGION OF LIFT. REMOVED
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION SAT PM AS MUCAPE MAXES OUT AROUND 100J/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX REMAINS POSITIVE. EXPANDED RASN EAST AGAIN TO ABOUT
THE NEB HWY 61 CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT.

LONG RANGE...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER LOW BEGINS ITS
TREK EAST AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SLOW TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
SCALED BACK POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE DOESNT SEEM AS
WIDESPREAD. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE FIRST PUNCH OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR
SUNDAY PM ACROSS THE NORTH... AND EURO MID LEVEL FGEN/MOISTURE
REALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY. STRONG WAA TAKES HOLD TUESDAY AS H85 TEMPS
SURPASS 10C ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA UNDER A DOWNSLOPE REGIME. FURTHER
WARMING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR 15C WITH A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE. MOISTURE IS SPARSE FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS. RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

FLOOD GUIDANCE ERN LINCOLN...FRONTIER COUNTY AND CUSTER
COUNTY IS LOW...LESS THAN 3 INCHES IN 6 HOURS. THESE AREAS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
IS LIKELY WITH 3 DAY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...TAYLOR
HYDROLOGY...CDC


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