Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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052
FXUS63 KLBF 200847
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
347 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Pacific high pressure will continue to build into Western and North
Central Nebraska today. Tonight an arctic front...currently near
Calgary...will back into Nrn Neb. The model consensus suggests rain
changing to snow across the north. The SREF has a 60 percent
probability of measurable snow by morning and this is consistent
with the GFS and NAM. Snow production will have to occur above 700mb
where temperatures are favorable for snow growth and the NAM and GFS
show this.

The temperature forecast follows a blend of guidance plus bias
correction which was spiked with the RAP...HRRR and HRRR EXP models
for highs around 60 north to lower 70s in the southwest. Lows
tonight fall into the 30s.

The GFS shows very strong frontogenesis favoring rain and snow
across Nrn Neb tonight. This will be quite necessary given the dry
air at the lower levels. The snow accumulation process will have to
overcome ground temperatures in the lower 40s which suggests no
significant travel hazard other than accumulations of slush on the
roads.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

A band of mid level frontogenesis will gradually weaken Tuesday
across north central Nebraska. Decent lift and saturation are noted
until around noontime, and precipitation looks definite through late
morning. Buffer soundings do indicate precipitation in the form of
wet snow, especially where the heavier precipitation rates occur.
Will mention snow in the forecast, and have up to one inch
accumulation. This would mainly occur on grassy surfaces due mild
temperatures in the 32 to 35 degree range.

Another wave moves across late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Again
it appears northern Nebraska favored for precipitation, but some
chance farther south as well. Potential for another rain snow mix or
just wet snow. Possibly another inch of slushy accumulation late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Then the attention turns to a significant storm slated to cross the
area late Thursday through Friday. All models and the GFS ensemble
mean suggest moderate to heavy precipitation for much of western and
north central Nebraska. Moist and unstable air Thursday afternoon
and evening could support thunderstorms, then a steadier rain
develops late Thursday night into Friday. Strong north winds also
develop Friday. Sounding profiles suggest a close call between rain
or snow, and it`s quite possible a changeover to all snow could
occur Friday morning. Accumulation would be tricky due to surface
temperatures a few degrees above freezing. This will be one to
watch. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Northeasterly winds 5 to 10 kts
overnight into Monday morning become easterly Monday afternoon
from 5 to 15 kts. Broken to scattered high cloudiness will persist
overnight and Monday, with broken mid clouds moving in Monday
evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Roberg



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