Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 271716

1116 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Surface high pressure and an arctic air mass are currently sliding
south across the region. Temperatures are currently in the single
digits to around the 10 degree mark early this morning. The high
pressure is keeping winds on the light side, but with the cold
temperatures the light northerly wind is resulting in wind chills
currently in the 10 below to zero range and will continue into the
mid morning hours before gradually warming.

Highs today will be well below normal as highs top out in the 20s.
Clouds will be on the increase later this morning into this
afternoon from southwest to northeast as an upper level
disturbance pushes east toward the region. The arctic air mass
currently over the region is also quite dry and am not expecting
any precipitation from this system as any chances will stay
southwest of the area.

Lows will drop into the teens tonight as wind chill values in the
single digits to lower teens occur.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

On Saturday an upper level trough will dig into the southwestern
U.S. A warm air advection pattern will setup across the region as
a southwest flow pattern aloft occurs. An upper level jet streak
will setup north of the area and lift from the jet and the warm
air advection will help to develop precipitation over the area.
Initially the atmosphere will be all below freezing and all snow
will occur. There will be some dry air to overcome at the onset
but this should not take to long to occur. The heaviest snow will
occur generally along and north an A Cassville to Springfield to
Salem Missouri line where one to four inches are expected with the
heaviest generally along and north of the Highway 54 corridor. The
Snow will fall from late Saturday morning into Sunday morning.
South central MO is not expected to get much in the way of snow
with this system.

As warmer air advects north in the mid levels Saturday night into
Sunday morning, a period of freezing rain or a snow/freezing rain
mix will likely occur. Surface temperatures should quickly warm
above freezing on Sunday and all rain will occur by Sunday
afternoon. But there will be a brief window where some minor ice
accumulations of a glaze to a few hundredths of an inch will be
possible generally south of I-44 early Sunday morning. Again
temperatures will warm quickly Sunday morning and all rain is
expected across the entire area by Sunday afternoon.

A cold front will push south through the area Sunday night into
early Monday morning and rain will be possible along the front.
The 850mb cold front will not pass through the region during this
time. Temperatures at the surface will drop below freezing behind
the front. With a warm nose remaining over the area any light
precipitation that lags behind the front will be in the form of
freezing rain. This will be light and fairly brief but another
glaze of ice to a hundredth or two will be possible early Monday
morning across mainly south central MO.

The cold front will not push that far south of the area and as the
upper level trough tracks east towards the area the front will
spread right back to the north as a warm front on Monday. Strong
warm air advection will occur and rain showers will be possible at
times Monday into Tuesday. Highs will warm into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s on Tuesday. Instability will also increase across the
area and some thunderstorms will be possible Monday night into
Tuesday. Some locally heavy rain will also be possible with in any

A cold front will sweep through the region Tuesday evening and
night. Some light snow will be possible behind the front as the
upper level trough tracks through the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday, but at this time any amounts look to be light.
Temperatures on Wednesday behind the front will be around 25 to 30
degrees colder than highs on Tuesday as they only top out in the
lower to middle 60s. The colder weather will persist into the end
of the week as highs in the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1110 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Mid level clouds are moving into the area today from the west.
Ceilings should remain VFR through the overnight hours. Winds will
be southeasterly by tomorrow morning.

Late in the TAF period, an area of snow will move into the area
from the west, and will likely begin to affect the JLN site by mid
morning, with IFR vis developing in association with light snow.
Snow may begin to affect SGF and BBG very late in the TAF period,
but if not, confidence is high that it will affect these locations
during the afternoon hours.




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