Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 130431

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1131 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...06z Aviation Forecast Update...

Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

The low associated with former tropical system Irma was now over
northern AL/MS. Mid and high cloud cover have spread across the
CWA today, with some lower clouds across the eastern Ozarks and
also a few light showers showing up on radar. Temperatures were
ranging from the low to mid 70s across the area, with dewpoints
from the mid 40s to mid 50s. The drier air in the lower levels may
prevent most of the echoes shown on radar in our CWA from reaching
the ground at this time.

Forecast focus points will be initially around Irma remnants and
then a pattern change with a warmup expected. Some scattered
storms will be possible then this weekend into early next week.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

For the remainder of today into tonight, cloud cover will remain
similar with mid and high level clouds across the area and some
lower clouds closer to the low in the eastern Ozarks. Some light
shower activity will remain possible, main for our far
southeastern CWA counties. This will linger into early Wednesday
morning. The cloud cover will keep temperatures in the mid to
upper 50s for lows tonight. The low (formerly Irma), will begin
lifting northeast on Wednesday morning and the precipitation
chances along with cloud cover will move off with it. Highs in the
eastern Ozarks will be in the low to mid 70s, while lower 80s will
be possible in the west.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

Upper low will continue lifting northeast and will gradually see a
pattern change to more ridging over the area aloft along with
southerly flow in the lower levels. This will aid in bumping our
temperatures back up into the mid 80s to around 90 for the later
part of the work week into the weekend. A system will push into
the west coast and eventually the Rockies by the weekend and we
should see a shift to more of a southwesterly flow aloft in
advance of the upper level wave over the weekend.

Some shortwave energy may push into the area over the weekend with
some scattered convection possible, however the bulk of the energy
and negatively tilted shortwave will lift into the northern
plains. A weak frontal boundary will try to sneak into the area
late in the weekend and early next week, with little or no upper
support as a ridge builds back into the area aloft. Will continue
some scattered convection early next week with the front, however
nothing looks super organized at this point.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

VFR conditions will continue with a broken deck of high
cloudiness over the next 24 hours. Winds will remain northerly
between 5 to 10 knots. There are no aviation concerns with this
aviation update.




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Griffin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.