Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 262300
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

For tonight, weak upper level flow generally from the north, and
lack of instability will keep most of western Kansas dry overnight.
There could be a stray thunderstorm near the Colorado border later
this evening, and near Medicine Lodge but not enough confidence to
put into forecast. A lee low and a weak surface pressure gradient
will keep light southeasterly upslope winds going tonight, then
becoming light southerly early in the morning. With winds becoming
more south, widespread dense fog not expected. Overnight lows will
be in the upper 60s to around 70.

For Wednesday, a strong northern branch upper level shortwave will
move into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest by afternoon pushing
a cold front into northwest Kansas by late afternoon. A few strong
to possibly severe thunderstorms could form along the front from
near Scott City to Wakeeney and Hays by late afternoon and early
evening. Ahead of the front warm south winds will prevail with highs
warming into the low to mid 90s and mostly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

For Wednesday night, a cold front will continue to drop south across
western Kansas, and with good moisture in place, and stronger north
to northwest flow aloft, more thunderstorms are forecast, some
strong to severe. The best chances will be near and north of Dodge
City with lesser chances toward the Oklahoma and Colorado border.
Lows will be from the upper 60s to around 70.

For Thursday into Friday night, more clusters of thunderstorms are
forecast mainly in the overnight and early mornings. Good upper
level northwest flow and good moisture upsloping into the Rockies
will be ideal for Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCS) to roll from
the High Plains of Colorado and Nebraska and across western Kansas.
Highs Thursday and Friday look to be around 90 and lows in the mid
to upper 60s.

For the period of Saturday into next Tuesday, the upper pattern
shifts into upper level ridging into the Central Plains. This
pattern will give a warming trend with highs back into the upper 90s
to around 100 from Sunday into Tuesday and little if any rainfall.
Lows will also warm to around 70 to 75 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected for the first half of the TAF pd. Some of
the guidance is suggesting patchy fog for KDDC/KHYS tomorrow morning.
Dewpoints are still running high and SE/S winds are expected through
the morning, so some of the models might be on to something. If fog
does develop, it should erode by 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  93  68  92 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  68  93  67  91 /  10  10  30  20
EHA  67  94  67  94 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  68  95  67  95 /  10  10  20  10
HYS  69  93  68  88 /  10  20  50  20
P28  71  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden


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