Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200537
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1237 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS IT
MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH A +70KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, A LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT
IN DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MUCH OF
KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. ALSO FACTORING IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT HIGHS
ONLY UP INTO THE 50S(F) TO NEAR 60F. LOWS ARE EXPECTED BACK DOWN
INTO THE 40S(F) WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE TIMING, EXTENT,
AND QUANTITY OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD BEYOND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WITH SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCE WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH THE
WESTERN PLAINS WITH THE INITIAL EFFECTS FELT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A LEAD WAVE FOSTERS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT FROM EASTERN COLORADO
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALONG NEARLY THE SAME ORIENTATION AS
TODAY`S PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE,
SO SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE NON-EXISTENT. THIS
WILL LIFT ON NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, HOWEVER EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND RICH MOISTURE
WILL ACTUALLY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY COOL WITH TRAJECTORIES
RECIRCULATING THE REMNANT CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS. IN FACT, WE MAY
SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE 50S...AND FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES WILL LIKELY SEE A FURTHER
REDUCTION IN HIGHS.

ON SATURDAY, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH, AND WE WILL
LIKELY SEE EARLY DAY CONVECTION IN THE 850-700MB ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS. THE ECMWF IS STILL THE MODEL OF CHOICE
GIVEN PAST PERFORMANCE IN THIS REGIME WE HAVE BEEN IN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF KEEPS TEMPERATURES COOL
ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH PERHAPS UP TO 70 AT ELKHART. ALL OF
THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY SURFACE-BASED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY CONFINED
ONCE AGAIN TO PORTIONS OF NORTH/NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SLOWLY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE
WEEKEND, SO WE WILL PROBABLY SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ON SUNDAY
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WITH YET ANOTHER SMALL SYSTEM SUGGESTED BY THE
ECMWF MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PREVAIL IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS REMAINS WIDEPSREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE STRATUS
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING CIGS TO IMPROVE UP TO MVFR. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
OF 5 TO 15KT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  63  47  62 /   0  10  70  70
GCK  44  63  48  64 /   0  10  70  60
EHA  45  60  51  68 /  10  40  60  40
LBL  44  64  50  64 /   0  30  70  60
HYS  42  63  45  59 /   0  10  70  70
P28  47  66  50  62 /   0  10  60  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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