Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201115
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
515 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS
THE EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET BREAKS THROUGH THE SHARP RIDGE NEAR THE
WEST COAST AND THE DEEP TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST FINALLY LIFTS
OUT INTO EASTERN CANADA BY FRIDAY EVENING. A MINOR UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NEW MEXICO WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING, AND A MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH
NEAR 130W WILL DIG INTO THE THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY
AND WILL APPROACH WESTERN TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PROPAGATE EAST
TODAY AND FRIDAY. PRESSURES WILL FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
TODAY, AND A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE RED RIVER
AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE
WARM FRONT, AND WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
KANSAS. MOST OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFTING OVER THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
EAST OF PRATT, BARBER AND STAFFORD COUNTIES, AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE MOIST LAYER WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A DEPTH OF A
KILOMETER EVEN IN BARBER AND PRATT COUNTIES. AS SUCH, ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE THAT OCCURS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AND LIKELY WILL
NOT PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IN ICE ACCRETION IS
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MERIT ISSUANCE OF ANY  HEADLINES.

THE WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA FRIDAY MORNING, AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST EDGE OF THE STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE
FOG LIKELY WILL MIX OUT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RIPPLES THROUGH THE ZONAL
FLOW FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST TO THE DAKOTAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RECIRCULATE COOL
AIR FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL DEVELOP MORE OF AN EAST COMPONENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS PRESSURES FALL IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 20S IN MOST AREAS WITH LOW 30S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

ON FRIDAY MORNING,  AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO WILL HAVE A SOUTHWESTERN FLOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS WILL STACK UP OVER A WARM FRONT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED UP AND OVER THE FRONT, WITH AN
UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LAYERED MOISTURE FOR
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
ABOUT 16Z FRIDAY, CHANGING OVER TO SPOTTY DRIZZLE AFTER 16Z. VERY
LIGHT QPF, IF ANY, IS EXPECTED. THEN ON SATURDAY, THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH, WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMIC ENERGY
CENTERED SOUTH OF OUR CWA. WE COULD WARM UP SATURDAY INTO THE
LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH MID TO UPPER 50S MAX TEMPS
LINGERING IN OUR EAST SECTIONS, IN THE PRATT AND STAFFORD COUNTY
AREAS WHERE LIGHT DRIZZLE THE MORNING BEFORE MAY SLOW DOWN THE
WARMING AFFECT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RETURN TO A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WITH A
COOL, HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
NO PRECIPITATION IS SEEN PAST SATURDAY, AS THE UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO A NORTHWEST, DOWNSLOPE PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW A DRY, COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING, BRINGING A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WESTERN
KANSAS. I DID NOTICE THE ECMWF MODEL BRINGS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FROPA SUNDAY, BUT I THINK IT WILL BE JUST
INCREASED CLOUDS AND NOT ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. IT WILL BE WINDY
SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 20G30MPH RANGE.
SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL COOL BY TUESDAY INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

WEDNESDAY WILL WARM UP A LITTLE AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
KANSAS FROM THE WEST. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BECOME IFR, WITH SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ALONG WITH STRATUS IN THE OVC010 RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  27  45  31 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  49  27  46  27 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  29  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  50  27  48  31 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  48  24  43  30 /   0  10  10  10
P28  49  31  46  35 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUTHI
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURKE



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