Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 051457
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
857 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...updated temperatures...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Snow pack still lingers across the northern zones. As a result, have
decreased maximum temperatures from Scott City to Hays. There will be
a downslope west to northwest wind, however, verification of yesterdays
highs shows a warm bias versus reality.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Even though short range models indicate an upper level shortwave
digging southeast across the Western High Plains today, little if
any precip is expected across southwest and central Kansas due to
the lack of low/mid level moisture across the region. There is
just enough moisture associated with the system in the upper
levels though to support increased cloud cover and possibly a few
flurries toward this afternoon. Otherwise, conditions will remain
fairly dry through Friday night. Similar high temperatures to
yesterday can be expected today with little change to the general
air mass across the region. Look for highs only up into the 30s(F)
again across west central Kansas to near the I-70 corridor in
central Kansas due to the lingering snow pack. Otherwise, highs
will reach up into the 40s(F) elsewhere with near 50F possible in
south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Dry conditions will continue through the weekend even as another
upper level shortwave crests upper level ridging out west and digs
southeast into the Northern Plains. The system will have very
little moisture to work with and therefore lead to persistent dry
conditions across western Kansas through the middle part of next
week, especially as the upper level ridging slowly approaches from
the west. Well above normal temperatures can be expected Saturday
as a west to southwesterly downslope flow sets up across the
Western High Plains. This will warm the lower levels pushing H85
temperatures above 5C across much of southwest Kansas. Look for
highs up into the 40s(F) across west central and central Kansas
Saturday afternoon with the 50s(F) across southwest and south
central Kansas. Cooler temperatures are likely Sunday as a cold
front pushes through western Kansas allowing colder air to filter
southward into the area. Highs will be more limited to the 40s(F)
Sunday afternoon. A general warming trend is then projected
through the middle part of next week as a low level westerly
downslope flow sets up once again across the high plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

An upper level disturbance moving across southwest Kansas this
morning will not have any impact on general aviation as ceilings
will remain well above MVFR category given the lack of any
appreciable low level moisture. Winds will generally be light at
less than 10 knots, with the exception later this afternoon at GCK
where 12 knots or slightly greater will probably occur behind a
weak cold front (tied to the aforementioned upper disturbance).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  20  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  39  15  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  42  20  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  44  17  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  34  17  41  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  48  24  55  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid


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