Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 111115
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
515 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

An upper level shortwave is progged to move out of the Rockies and
into the Plains today, which will in turn help push a cold front
through the area by tonight. Westerly winds are anticipated ahead
of this front shifting to more of a northerly direction behind it.
No precipitation is expected with this system with only a slight
increase in cloud cover. A wide range in temperatures is expected
today due to this front with highs ranging from the 40s across
northern Kansas to around 70 degrees along the KS/OK border. Lows
tonight look to range from the teens across northern Kansas to
around 30 degrees across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Dry conditions continue through Thursday with increased mid level
cloudiness. Meanwhile, a strong upper level low strengthens across
the Desert Southwest Thursday into Friday before ejecting
northeastward towards the Central Plains this weekend into the
first part of next week. Closer to home, high pressure looks to
persist, with continued NE winds and cold air advection. Low level
clouds will also increase in coverage Friday. Light freezing rain
or sleet will be possible Friday afternoon, first along the KS/OK
border spreading northward into the evening and overnight hours.
This is due to moisture and warm air advection increasing aloft.
Models continue to suggest a strong winter storm will affect most
of Kansas this weekend. Ample moisture in the low to mid levels of
the atmosphere will allow a large sum of precipitation to fall
across the area. This precipitation intensifies through Sunday
morning, as the upper low intensifies and approaches. Dynamic lift
across SW KS will be intense, with strong diffluence aloft, being
fed by tremendous moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico.
There is still some question on what form all of this
precipitation will fall as. As of now, most of the precipitation
looks to fall as freezing rain or sleet due to a warm tongue
inserting itself between two layers of colder air. If this comes
to fruition, it will cause a large disruption in travel over the
weekend as well as possible power outages. The best chance for
snow to fall with this system will be across far west and west
central Kansas. This system looks to exit the CWA Monday with
drier conditions expected into the mid part of next week. As for
temperatures, highs Thursday look to range from around 30 degrees
across north central Kansas to around 50 degrees across far
southwestern Kansas. Lows Thursday night are anticipated to dip
into the mid teens with the exception of south central Kansas
where around 20 degrees is possible. Highs will fall into the 20s
Friday with 30s expected Saturday and Sunday. Highs for the first
part of next week will generally reach into the upper 30s to mid
40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 512 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this evening.
Light southerly winds will become more southwesterly 10 to 20kt mid
to late morning as a lee side trough of low pressure moves slowly
eastward into western Kansas. Winds will then turn northerly 15 to
25kt mid to late afternoon as a cold front pushes southward across
western and central Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  22  40  14 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  66  22  42  14 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  70  30  51  18 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  71  28  48  17 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  48  15  31  14 /   0   0   0   0
P28  71  23  40  19 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...JJohnson



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