Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 171202
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
702 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Upper level ridging will move into the Central Plains today ahead of
an upper level shortwave trough moving into the Northern Plains. 850
mb temps warm a few degrees, and should push daytime highs a few
degrees warmer than yesterday. This will give highs into the upper
90s to near 100.

The upper level wave will be moving into Nebraska by this evening
with some PVA into northwest Kansas. A large area of thunderstorms
will likely form and move southeasterly along a 700 mb thermal
gradient. Just how far south into western Kansas the storms form is
the question. Very warm 700 mb temps of 14 to 13C could keep a lid
on storms. Current model guidance suggests some high based storms
forming north of a Syracuse to Scott City area by evening then
drifting southeast into parts of southwest Kansas just north of
Dodge City. Will go ahead and maintain 20 to 30 percent chances of
thunderstorms mainly in the evening. Very weak wind fields aloft
should preclude severe storms, however inverted V type forecast
soundings and high based storms could give some strong and gusty
outflow winds to 50 mph.

Overnight lows will be mild and in the upper 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday as an upper level trough
progresses southeastward into the upper Midwest, with an associated
surface front situated across southwest Kansas. High temperatures
will be between 98 and 101F. Upper level troughing will gradually
build across the northwestern United States trough Friday August
22nd, with upper level ridging across the southern Plains. This will
lead to weak lee troughing over the high plains and mainly hot and
dry weather across southwestern Kansas. High temperatures will
generally be between 96 and 102F each day, with lows from the
upper 60s in far western Kansas to the mid 70s farther east. There
are very small chances for thunderstorms somewhere across western
Kansas just about every day ahead of the lee trough; but it is
very difficult to pinpoint the timing and coverage of any
convective events. When the upper level trough over the
northwestern United States finally progresses eastward across the
northern plains, a cold frontal passage will lead to cooler
temperatures, possibly by Saturday August 23rd. Thunderstorms may
accompany the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

A weak surface trough in the lee of the Rockies will result in
south winds around 10 kts or less through the period. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening but VFR
conditions will persist otherwise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  70  99  68 /  10  20  20  20
GCK  98  69  99  66 /  10  20  20  20
EHA  98  68 100  67 /  10  20  20  20
LBL  99  68 101  68 /  10  20  20  30
HYS  97  69  99  68 /  10  20  20  20
P28  99  71 101  71 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch





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