Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231123
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
623 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 444 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

GLD, PUB, and AMA have issued a high wind watch for Fri. Have issued
to blend in. Confidence is medium.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

An active short term period with 3 concerns.

1) Moisture advection continues this early morning. GOES 16 shows stratus
moving northward. There has been patchy fog, but nothing dense so far.
Forecast skew-t/log-p`s still support stratus continuing through the
mid morning hours and finally dissipating towards mid to late morning.
There also could be patchy fog early this morning.

2) Convection this evening. Heavily biased pop arrangement to the EC,
ARW, and NMMB models. These models show convection developing along
the dryline, roughly along or close to the Highway 83 corridor. It
may be a county or so to the west if the NAM solution verifies. For
storm type, there is plenty of bulk shear with 50-60 kt and fairly
decent low level veering of winds forecast in skew-t/log-p`s. So initially,
we could have a supercell or two as 850-300-hPa mean winds and the
sfc boundary/winds are not exactly parallel (there is some orthogonality
to the two vectors). The two vectors do become more parallel after
00Z, so do think convection will line out with time. Forecast skew-t/log-p`s
show rather high LCLs and CAPE is forecast around 1000 J/kg. The NAM
model is higher with CAPE, although this models seems to be overdoing
dewpoints. The other models partially mix the dewpoints lower, which
seems reasonable given the southwesterly momentum in the lower levels
of the atmosphere. So, do think we could see hail up to 2" with the
initial storms. Hail growth should decrease with time as the storm
mode evolves into a line and beneficial competition increases. The
LHP from the ARW supports this hail size initially, the decreases rapidly
as time moves forward. The soundings also show DCAPE forecast plus with
a linear storm type evolution eventually, do think convective outflows
of 60-70 mph would be the second evolving threat for the evening. For
the tornado threat, the threat doesn`t look that high. CAPE is fairly
low (although high compared to the 90th percentile for 23 March). Furthermore,
LCLs will be high (around 1400 meters generally). If there is any potential,
it would be only for an hour or two before storms cluster into a line/QLCS.
Basically, cannot rule out a brief tornado or two if storm mode is actually
discrete in the beginning.

3) Fire weather concerns. See section below for details.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

The day shift will have to look closely if a high wind watch is needed
or not for the western zones for Friday. The strongest 850-hPa winds
are forecast mainly to the west and northwest. With short term concerns
and this meteorology, don`t have enough confidence right now for a
headline.

Wrap around moisture/deformation is forecast around the synoptic low
for Friday. Some showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will be possible.
The strongest deformation looks to be north of the area per the EC.
Beyond this, we go through a dry period through the weekend. The next
chance for precip is not expected until late Sunday night into Monday.
There also is another chance mid week as another synoptic wave moves
through. The models vary with each run, so confidence on storm track
is not high at this time. The FB pops and temps look like a reasonable
first order approximation.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Flight conditions will deteriorate through the overnight pd to LIFR
in association with drizzle, some patchy fog possible, and low clouds.
Some improvement back to VFR is possible by late morning. KGCK/KDDC
stands the best opportunity for seeing convection along the dryline
tomorrow evening. Storms could produce 50 kt outflows and large hail.
Winds will remain strong SE-S 10-20 kt increasing 20-30 kt tomorrow
and remaining 15-25 kt through the end of the TAF pd.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

A moist southeasterly flow will continue to draw more humid air
into western Kansas early this morning. Given the increasing wind
speeds near the surface into the 20 to 25 knot range over the next
few hours any fog that may have developed prior to 12z is
expected to quickly dissipate. The IFR/MVFR stratus will also give
way to VFR conditions between 15z and 18z Thursday based on the
latest RAP and 06z NAM.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible after 23z Thursday near
a dryline as it moves east across far western Kansas. As these
thunderstorms move east across western Kansas early tonight these
storms will be capable of producing strong winds and hail. Will
base timing of these storms on the latest RAP, ARW, and NMM which
has the storms crossing GCK between 00z and 03z Friday. DDC and
HYS between 03z and 06z Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Main question for fire weather concerns is where the dryline will be
positioned this afternoon. The 3 km NAM is the most west compared to
the ARW, NMMB, and EC. Those models have it to the east a column of
counties or so. So, relative humidities will be in question west of
the dryline. For consistency sake, have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch
to a Red Flag Warning for the far western zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  49  62  37 /  20  70  50  30
GCK  83  45  57  34 /  20  80  40  10
EHA  84  43  54  32 /  20  50  30   0
LBL  84  45  61  34 /  20  80  20  10
HYS  78  53  64  38 /  20  50  30  20
P28  81  56  71  42 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7
PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ061-074-084.

High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Sugden



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