Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 221130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
430 AM MST THU SEP 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect windy conditions today, with a line of showers
and thunderstorms moving west to east through early tonight. Some
storms may become severe, especially west of Flagstaff. Cooler and
drier conditions will develop on Friday, with continued dry and
slightly warmer weather over the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...A relatively deep upper low entering the northwestern
Great Basin this morning will bring increasing dynamics and shear to
the area today and tonight. A moisture plume that has been over
western Arizona for a few days is already responding to this, with a
line of showers and thunderstorms developing over Mohave County.
This area of storms will move steadily east through the day, with a
secondary area forming in the colder air late today and tonight.

The combination of dynamics and shear, as well as cooling
temperatures aloft, will cause a few severe thunderstorms to form
today. The best location for this will be in the western and central
portions of the CWA.

In addition to the storms, expect fairly windy conditions ahead of
the trough axis this afternoon. A few areas east of Flagstaff will
flirt with advisory criteria, but we will hold off on any headlines
for now. Cooler and drier conditions trail this system on Friday,
with rising heights and a slight warming trend expected for the
weekend and into early next week.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Moisture and southwesterly
flow will create some MVFR/local IFR CIGS over the higher elevation
areas including KFLG & KGCN terminals. After 15Z Thurs, SHRA/TSRA
expected to increase from west to east ahead of a cold front. SW
winds 15-25KT gusts to 30-35KT most areas from late Thurs morning
through afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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