Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252243
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 PM MST TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. LOOK FOR A DECREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY HAVE FORMED IN AN AREA FROM
SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO NORTHEAST OF
FLAGSTAFF TO NEAR WINDOW ROCK THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE
GENERALLY MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 MPH. A BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL LIKELY HELP
TRIGGER STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA FROM NEAR AJO TO THE NEW MEXICO BOARDER MAY
CONTINUE MOVE NORTHWARD AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT INTO AREAS
WHERE THE SURFACE HEATING IS BUILDING CAPE. BOTTOM LINE...THERE
COULD WELL BE SOME STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE SHIFT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA WITH A DRIER AIR MASS AFFECTING AREAS NORTHWEST OF
FLAGSTAFF. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS NOW FORECAST TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARIZONA FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. POP VALUES WERE RAISED
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS. IN ADDITION...ERRATIC
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/JJ
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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