Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 201031

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
331 AM MST SAT AUG 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will remain in place with the
potential for shower and thunderstorm activity continuing through
the middle of next week.


.DISCUSSION...A low-level high pressure circulation will remain
positioned over south central Arizona through Sunday. The
circulation around the high will continue to push moisture
residing over the Gulf of California/northwest Mexico into
Arizona and across the Mogollon Rim. In addition, a weak trough
aloft will provide a cooler than normal mid-level air mass and
weak upward motion. As daytime heating progresses expect a decent
chance of showers and storms both today and Sunday from the
Mogollon Rim south with lower chances in drier air to the north.
The main threat the next two days will be isolated heavy rainers.

From Monday onward...As westerly flow develops through a deep
layer, low-level drying and mid-level warming should start to
stabilize the air mass over northern Arizona. However, some model
conflicts exist. The European model hangs on to just enough
moisture for a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms through
the week. The GFS is drier with less convective activity. The
development of westerly flow aloft usually brings more stable
conditions and favors the less convective GFS solution. As a
result, the forecast grids will contain a lower chance of showers
and thunderstorms from Monday onward but complete shut off isn`t
likely due to lingering moisture.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions will generally
prevail over northern Arizona through the TAF period. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop along and south of the
Mogollon Rim after 17Z. Isolated storms north of the Mogollon Rim.
Stronger storms will cause MVFR conditions. Aviation discussion
not updated for amendments.






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