Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 291640

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
940 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect cold and mainly dry conditions through much of
the week and into the weekend.


.UPDATE...A dry northwest flow has moved over northern Arizona on
the back side of the low that brought snow to the area on Monday.
Have trimmed back the pops/cloud cover for Apache County where a
few snow flurries could persist this morning. Otherwise, the
forecast is in good shape.


.PREV DISCUSSION /435 AM MST/...An upper low just east of the Four
Corners this morning has brought much drier and colder air into
Arizona. Some lingering showers near the White Mtns are what
remains of a frontal system that moved through yesterday. In
addition, some wrap around showers associated with upper low are
currently affecting far northeast Arizona. Both these areas should
dissipate later this morning as the low continues to move

Surface winds will become north or northeast today behind the low,
ending the last several days of strong and gusty southwest winds.

Wednesday and Thursday will feature moderating temperatures and
continued dry conditions as a s/wv ridge moves across the area.
This ridge is ahead of another low pressure system that will drive
south out of the Great Basin Friday and Saturday. This trajectory
looks to be fairly dry, but the cold air will return for the

Longer range models indicate potential for a storm by the middle
of next week. Solutions are widely variable right now, but
something to keep an eye on.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z forecast...VFR conditions are forecast
across northern Arizona for the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.






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