Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221637
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
937 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TODAY BUT AN ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH WHERE GUSTS ARE GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. WIND SPEEDS WILL PEAK LATE THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR HAS MOVED IN WITH THE LAST DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
QUITE COOL TODAY. THE COOL TEMPS AND INCREASED WINDS WILL KEEP
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH COUNTRY FROM THE
RIM NORTH. FORECAST TRENDS ARE HANDLED WELL WITH NO UPDATES
PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /300 AM MST/...
THE CENTER OF A SECONDARY WEATHER DISTURBANCE PLUNGING SOUTHWARD WAS
CENTERED OVER THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE RESULTING UPWARD MOTION ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND SINKING AIR
OVER THE COLORADO PLATEAU WILL PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT.
AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOUTHWARD
FAVORED LOCATIONS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 40 MPH. LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS OR
SOUTHWEST OF THE BRADSHAW MOUNTAINS WILL SEE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
55 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SO LOOK FOR A
CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BUNDLE-UP THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS...WHERE WIND CHILLS
WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS...BRRRRRRR.

FOR FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMER AIR
MASS RAPIDLY MOVES IN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. LOOK FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOCALLY GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT MUCH LIGHTER. MEANWHILE, A WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP INTO A CUT-OFF LOW ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE BAJA LOW WILL TAP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
BEFORE HEADING NORTHWARD. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A VARIETY
OF STORM PATHS. THE GFS IS WET FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, THE EUROPEAN MODEL MOVES THE LOW FURTHER WEST AND KEEPS
ARIZONA OUT OF THE PRECIPITATION THREAT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. IN
ANY EVENT A MILD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA. WE HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING MONDAY AND
LASTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS PROBABLY WON`T CONVERGE
ON A SOLUTION UNTIL THE WEEKEND. WE`LL KEEP YOU POSTED

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR
SKIES NEARLY ALL AREAS...EXCEPT OVER THE WHITE MTNS WHERE SCT-BKN SC
WITH BASES FROM 3-5KFT AGL AND A FEW FLURRIES MAY FALL THROUGH 21Z.
EXPECT N-NE SFC WINDS FROM 10-20KTS MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 20-40KTS
OVER AND JUST DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES...INCLUDING THE
KFLG TERMINAL...THROUGH 01Z FRI. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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