Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231040
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 AM MST SAT APR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WINDY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF THE WIND THIS AFTERNOON. AN
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL BRING CONTINUED WINDY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN ARIZONA
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS
MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER
SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
10 AM TO 7 PM MST FOR AREAS FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT ACROSS
ARIZONA AS THE PARENT LOW IS WELL TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP 5 TO 10 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOME RECOVERY SUNDAY
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING MONDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF
40-55 MPH. TYPICAL WIND PRONE LOCATIONS IN THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH THIS STORM FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE KAIBAB PLATEAU.
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DEPART THE REGION, A
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST TUESDAY FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER ARIZONA.
COOL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM ARRIVES THURSDAY.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN WITH
THE PREVIOUS STORMS. BREEZY CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER AROUND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW QUICKLY
THIS STORM EXITS THE REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS SW10-20KTS EARLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 15-25G35-40KTS AFT 16Z-18Z. WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING SATURDAY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PASSING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CAUSE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT WILL PRODUCE
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM THIS AFTERNOON. SUNDAY LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST UNDER A BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS MONDAY WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. BREEZY TUESDAY THEN DECREASING WIND ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR AZZ009>017-039-040.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOTTICE
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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