Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 161652

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
952 AM MST Sat Sep 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly dry weather with seasonable temperatures will
continue through the weekend and for much of next week.


Our short-term forecast of seasonable temps with generally dry
conditions remains on track. No significant updates anticipated
this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /322 AM MST/...Weak troughing over the southwest
this weekend will keep temperatures near average for mid
September, with light southwest winds today then increasing a bit
for Sunday. Enough moisture lingers near the AZ/NM state line
for around a 10 percent chance of an afternoon shower or storm.
It will be mainly clear elsewhere. Monday through Wednesday -
temperatures rebound a few degrees with generally dry conditions.

Models are in good agreement in developing a deeper trough over
the western U.S. late next week, in the Thursday to Saturday time
frame. Cooler and windy weather is likely, with a low chance of


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions are expected for
the next 24 hours across northern Arizona. SW sfc winds 10-20
kts through 02z then decreasing. There is a slight chance of an
afternoon thunderstorm around the white Mountains. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Northern Arizona will remain under the influence
of a broad trough bringing light afternoon breezes and near normal
temperatures through Monday. Dry weather is forecast at most
places, although enough instability will exist in the White
Mountains region for a slight chance of storms each afternoon. An
approaching weather disturbance will bring stronger winds Tuesday
and Wednesday with cooler temperatures after Tuesday.






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