Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 141604

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
904 AM MST Fri Jul 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect lower grade monsoon conditions through Saturday
or Sunday, with most activity along and southwest of the Mogollon
Rim and White Mountains. Moisture will increase heading into early
next week, with shower and thunderstorm activity spreading
northward across much of the area. Temperatures will peak in the
next few days, with some cooling next week.


.DISCUSSION...Starting out mainly clear this morning across
northern Arizona but monsoon moisture still lurks. Thunderstorms
will be few and far between north of the Mogollon Rim under a
drying northeast flow. From the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
southward, activity will be more scattered. Across a broad area
ranging from Prescott to Payson a few thunderstorms will be
capable of producing an inch of rainfall and wind gusts to 45 mph.

As advertised, the middle and upper level high will move to a
position over the California/Arizona border and strengthen
through Saturday or Sunday. This configuration is more stable
aloft and leads to a northeasterly steering flow, which means
continued suppressed convection for northern portions of the area.
From the Mogollon Rim southward, higher moisture values exist due
to persistent outflows from northern Mexico and southern Arizona
complexes. Storms that initiate over higher terrain will move
south and southwest into this airmass which will bring higher
chances of heavy rain to a broad area ranging from Prescott to
Payson, and the southern edges of the White Mountains and the
Mogollon Rim.

We expect this "battleground" to expand north each day, with the
door possibly opening across all of northern Arizona early next
week as the high position shifts back eastward and weakens. This
pattern should last several days next week, with medium to high
grade monsoon activity. Models suggest the high will once again
move northwest later next week. This could bring a drying trend,
but it is too early to tell.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package..Mostly VFR conditions are in store
today. Isolated to scattered TSRA will develop this afternoon and
last through early this evening. Stronger storms will reduce flight
restrictions to MVFR or possibly IFR in +RA. Outflow winds up to 35
kts are also possible. A low chance for showers will continue
through the overnight hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will
continue through Saturday. Some isolated heavy rain is possible,
with otherwise light to moderate rainfall amounts. Expect seasonable
temperatures to continue.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Increasing moisture is expected to spread
north across the state leading to increased shower and storm
activity. The potential for heavy rain will also increase,
especially along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Look for increasing
humidity values and slightly cooler temperatures.






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