Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 121050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
350 AM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A trough moving down the west coast will bring a
period of unsettled weather to northern Arizona through the
weekend. The greatest chances for rain and high elevation snow
will be over the northwest part of Arizona through Friday, and
most of Arizona this weekend. Fair weather is expected early next



Very few changes were made to the forecast. Todays 00z models
remain in good agreement showing the trough now moving southward
off the northern California to reach northern Baja by Saturday.

Associated with this trough, a cold front will slowly sag across
N. Arizona today dropping our temperatures a bit, and serve as a
focus for precipitation through tonight. Lift associated with this
baroclinic zone will bring areas of rain and snow showers to areas
west of a Kayenta to Prescott line. Snow levels here generally
between 6000 and 7000 ft. 2 to 3 inches of new snow is expected
over the Kaibab Plateau by Friday morning with up to an inch
possible elsewhere above 6500 feet. Look for decreasing shower
activity Friday.

On Saturday - the low is forecast to move from northern Baja
towards southwestern New Mexico. Sufficient moisture should be
tapped to wrap rain and snow over much of Arizona, with snow
levels rising to around 7000 feet near Flagstaff and to 8000 feet
around the White Mountains. Uncertainty remains as to how much
rain and snow could result from the passage of this system, but
progs have increased precip accumulations Saturday afternoon and
evening along the Mogollon rim and precip precip chances were
increased here. It does appear that Navajo and Apache counties
will see the most precipitation Saturday night and Sunday. We are
forecasting from .10-.40 inch liquid accumulations, with the
largest amounts in the White Mtns.

Sunday and Monday - unsettled and cool weather to continue as a
broad trough of low pressure to remain over desert southwest. For
this reason kept a slight chance of showers going from Sunday
through Monday for areas east of a line from Page to Black Canyon
City. Expect cold overnight lows Sunday and Monday.

Expect dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure aloft
builds into the desert southwest.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z forecast...Expect scattered showers to
develop today and last through the forecast period primarily
affecting areas from Prescott-Flagstaff-Kayenta westward where local
MVFR to IFR conditions will be common, VFR conditions east of this
line. Expect southerly winds 10-20 kts through this afternoon.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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