Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 230456
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
956 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
PAYSON TO WINDOW ROCK. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MOSTLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED ALONG A GRAND
CANYON TO KAYENTA LINE LATE THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY SNOW
CONTINUING TO FALL NORTH OF THIS LINE. RAIN HAS CHANGED BACK OVER
TO SNOW IN PAGE WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FALLING DOWN TO THE SOUTH
RIM OF THE GRAND CANYON. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CA AND A LEADING SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT AN
INCREASE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CENTRAL AZ AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE SHOWERS
DOWN TO AROUND 7000 FEET IN THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. WHILE SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL AZ...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL PICK UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
LOOK FOR SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY FROM THE SOUTH RIM TO FLAGSTAFF WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TIMING WITH NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /350 PM MST/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASING. EXPECT AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
LOWEST NEAR THE UTAH BORDER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS TO
NEAR THE VALLEY FLOORS...LIKELY INCLUDING THE PAGE AREA. FARTHER
SOUTH...SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000 FEET
OVERNIGHT...FALLING TO 6500 FEET TOWARD SUNRISE. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD AND DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. WE
HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND BLACK MESA. WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW FROM THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM TO THE
GRAND CANYON...ABOVE THE 6500 FOOT LEVEL STARTING AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING UNTIL 5 PM MONDAY. A GENERAL 3-7 INCH
SNOWFALL IS FORECAST IN THESE AREAS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE PAGE AREA SOUTH TO KAIBITO IS ALSO IN EFFECT...THIS INCLUDES
AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHERE SNOW LEVELS ARE MUCH LOWER. FAIR
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ARE STARTING TO
COME IN LINE BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND. THE LATEST ECMWF IS COLDER AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER WITH THE
BROAD TROUGH AS IT DIGS DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST...BUT IN ANY CASE
MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH SNOW LEVELS FROM
5000-6000 FEET. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO
INCREASE OVER N. ARIZONA LATE ON FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF AN E25-KPAN-KSJN
LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ004-039.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ006-007-
015.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ005-009.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/JJ
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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