Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 201038

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
338 AM MST Thu Oct 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A high pressure system will move slowly across the
southwest region through Sunday with high temperatures running 10
degrees above seasonal normals each day. A low pressure system
will move into the West Coast on Sunday bringing up additional
moisture into Arizona from the south. A few showers will start by
Sunday night with chances for rainfall peaking by Monday
afternoon and evening. Shower activity will diminish on Tuesday.
High pressure will build back in across the state next Wednesday with
a return to dry weather conditions lasting through the end of next


.DISCUSSION...Expect warm temperatures for October under a high
pressure ridge with daytime high`s running 10 degrees above our
seasonal normals. Northeasterly winds will start to fade later
this afternoon becoming breezy southwesterlies each day through

On Sunday the ridge shifts east and a deep Pacific low
moves into the West Coast. A deep southerly fetch between the high
over Texas and the low off the West Coast will pull up additional
moisture from the subtropics. A few showers may start across
Arizona by Sunday evening. However a short wave upper level trough
moving from West to East across the state will help enhance
shower activity and rainfall production from Monday afternoon to
Tuesday morning.

Shower activity will taper off on Tuesday as the upper trough
moves eastward and a upper ridge builds in over Arizona. Expect
dry weather conditions from Wednesday through next Friday under
continued high pressure.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z forecast...Look for VFR conditions under
mostly clear skies to persist over the next 24 hrs. The exception
being areas near planned burning activity which could see lowered
VIS/CIG due to smoke. Expect locally breezy NE winds this morning,
especially southwest of higher terrain features. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.






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