Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 121027
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST SAT APR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHERN
ARIZONA. ON SUNDAY...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING VERY GUSTY
WEST WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THERE ARE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT WILL CROSS ARIZONA
THIS WEEKEND. THIS FIRST IS A CLOSED LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW TO CROSS NRN AZ TODAY BRINGING WEAK LIFT AND
COOLER AIR ALOFT. AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH THE LOW SHOULD CONVECT PRODUCING SCATTERED VIRGA
SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS.

ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR STATE FROM THE
NORTH. FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HERE AND DEEP MIXING WILL BRING
WESTERLY  WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SFC WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

BY MONDAY MORNING...GUSTY NORTH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL BLOW ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS DECREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS ARE AT ODDS WITH A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA WITH ISOLD -TSRA PSBL ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY...BREEZY...AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
ARIZONA. DRY NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND MOGOLLON RIM. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF ON MONDAY WITH
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLIES EACH DAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AZ FIRE ZONES 104>107-109>114-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC..........DL
AVIATION........DB
FIRE WEATHER....DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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