Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 161113

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
413 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An approaching cold front will produce increased
southwesterly winds Thursday and Friday. Behind the front, look
for the colder overnight temperatures on Saturday and Sunday.


A change in the weather pattern will bring a more active shift in
weather for the rest of the week through the weekend and into
early next week.

Winds will increase today ahead of a shortwave trough that is
looking to quickly move across the area Friday. Wind speeds look
to remain below advisory level for Thursday but wind sites may see
the occasional gust above 35 mph.

By Friday the shortwave trough will pass over the area and bring
some potential for showers, mainly along the higher terrain near
the Utah Arizona border. Precipitation amounts should be
relatively light. The bigger concern on Friday will be widespread
strong gusty winds north of the Mogollon Rim. While windspeed
look to be below high wind warning criteria, the speeds should be
strong enough to cause difficult driving conditions especially for
high profile vehicles. Winds should decrease Friday night behind
the cold front.

Saturday and Sunday look to be some of the colder temperatures so
far this season. High temperatures will climb back towards near
normal values Saturday, and slightly above normal on Sunday.

Models begin to diverge by Monday on the location of another
shortwave trough that looks to remain north of the area. Models
are beginning to show a quicker return of the ridge of high
pressure, this could keep the shortwave trough further away from
Northern Arizona and limit its impacts. By the middle of next week
guidance moves into agreement that a large scale ridge will be
residing over the American Southwest, yielding warm and dry
conditions for the middle of next week.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Smoke will likely cause
periods of MVFR/IFR visibilities in smoke at KGCN through 16Z.
Otherwise, look for VFR conditions over the next 24 hours under
increasing mid and upper level cloud cover. From 18Z Thursday to 01Z
Friday, expect southwest winds 5-15 kt gusting 15-25 kt across much
of the area. Winds may remain breezy overnight at locations
northeast of higher terrain. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...An approaching cold front will cause increasing
southwest winds, with the highest speeds expected Friday along and
north of the Mogollon Rim. Light showers are possible late Thursday
through Friday, mainly along and north of Interstate 40.

Saturday through Monday...Temperatures drop to near normal behind
the front on Saturday, with above normal temperatures returning by
Sunday. Otherwise, expect very dry conditions and lighter winds.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Friday FOR AZZ004>007-




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