Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181112
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
415 AM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a windy and colder period, with areas of rain
and snow, starting tonight and lasting through Tuesday. Drier, but
cool weather arrives Wednesday and Thursday, with a chance of rain
and snow again by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A cold upper low over eastern Washington early this
morning will move into the northwestern Great Basin later this
afternoon and into the southern Great Basin by Monday. A powerful
cold front associated with this storm will sweep through the state
on Monday, preceded by upslope rain and snow showers starting as
early as this afternoon.

Pressure falls ahead of the front will allow for a moist return flow
to develop, especially along and south of the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains. This will lead to a robust upslope shower period as
southwest winds strengthen, starting late today or early tonight and
continuing through Monday. Precipitation will be enhanced along the
cold front Monday afternoon, followed by continued upslope flow and
instability showers Monday night and Tuesday.

The airmass behind the front is very cold, snow levels will reach
the valley floors Monday night. High temperatures Tuesday may be
close to the coldest this winter season.

A variety of headlines have been issued, for both wind and winter
weather. Travel conditions in northern and central Arizona Sunday
night through Tuesday will be poor, use caution.

Drier, but continued cold weather is expected Wednesday and
Thursday, with models showing potential for more rain and snow
Friday, perhaps yet another storm early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...A trough approaching the area
today will result in gusty winds developing after 17Z and lasting
through the overnight hours. Winds will be southwest 15-25 kts
gusting 35-45 kts. MVFR cigs will likely develop over the higher
terrain from KFGZ southeast after 20Z, with scattered showers
developing by 00Z. Aft 06Z, showers will increase with areas of MVFR
in snow above 6kft MSL. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today, gusty southwest winds return as a strong
cold front approaches from the northwest. The strongest winds will
be along and north of the Mogollon Rim, where wind gusts as high as
50 mph will be possible. On Monday, even stronger winds are forecast
as a stout cold front sweeps across the area. The strongest winds
will likely occur east of Flagstaff, where wind gusts as high as 60
mph will be possible. In addition, rain and high elevation snow
showers will accompany the front as it moves across the area later
tonight through Monday night, with accumulating snow above 6000 to
6500 feet.

Tuesday through Thursday...Chances for snow showers linger into
Tuesday. Dry conditions, along with a continuation of below normal
temperatures, are forecast for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to Midnight MST tonight for
AZZ004-015>017-038.

Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM MST Monday for AZZ005-
006-009>014-039-040.

High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
AZZ005-009>014-039-040.

Winter Storm Warning above 65000 feet from Midnight tonight to 5 AM
MST Tuesday for AZZ016-017.

Winter Weather Advisory above 6000 feet from Midnight tonight to 11
PM MST Monday for AZZ004-015.

Wind Advisory above 6000 feet from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST
Monday for AZZ007-008.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff



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