Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 131638
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA
THIS WEEKEND...WHILE THE NORTHERN ZONES REMAIN DRY. EXPECT A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK
AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH MORE
FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS IMPORTED MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. LOW
LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED FROM FLAGSTAFF SOUTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE PW
VALUES HAVE INCREASED SOUTH OF I-40. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT FLAGSTAFF
INDICATES THAT IT WILL BE VERY TOUGH TO CONVECT...THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF HERE. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL FEATURE MORE
OF THE SAME. STREAMLINES INDICATE AREAS NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF WILL NOT
SEE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH REMAIN MOIST.
THE RIM ZONES WILL BE THE TRANSITION AREA WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY VALUES SLIDING NORTH AND SOUTH EACH DAY. BY TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...STREAMLINES MAY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
WITH A POSSIBLE GULF SURGE INDUCED BY ODILE. MODELS DIFFER ON
SUPPORT FOR THIS...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 24
HOUR PERIOD. UNTIL 03Z SUN...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS. AFT 03Z SUN STORM...ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









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