Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 091720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1020 AM MST Mon Jan 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A moist weather disturbance will deliver a rainy and
windy day across most of northern Arizona today. The snow level
will be between 8000 and 9000 feet. Unsettled weather is then in
store for the remainder of the week with a potentially stronger
and colder system toward the weeks end.


.UPDATE...Radar shows widespread precipitation occurring over the
Kaibab Plateau and northwest portions of the Coconino Plateau,
with very light rain affecting locations farther to the south and
east. The forecast is generally on track for the short term. We
made some minor updates to QPF by incorporating a time-lagged
blend of the latest HRRR runs to better define where the greatest
precipitation will occur. We also made a minor update to wind
speeds. The wind advisory remains unchanged, as the strongest
winds are still expected to occur from the Mogollon Rim


.PREV DISCUSSION /323 AM MST/...A broad area of low pressure was
located over the Eastern Pacific this morning, centered well off
the Washington/British Columbia coast. High pressure was centered
over the Arizona/New Mexico border heading eastward in response to
an approaching shortwave disturbance.

For Today...A shortwave weather disturbance spinning out of the
larger low over the Pacific will move across northern Arizona.
There will be two main impacts. Strengthening pressure gradients
for stronger winds and increased moisture/upward motion ushering
in a good chance of showers. First the wind. Winds have increased
aloft and as anticipated, with an inversion at 700 mb, wind gusts
in the 25 to 35 mph range were being observed this morning
downwind of substantial terrain features such as the Kaibab
Plateau, the San Francisco Peaks and Black Mesa. Winds will
continue to strengthen aloft and pre-sunrise wind gusts
approaching 50 mph will be possible across areas such as Doney
Park and highway 89A near the Vermilion Cliffs. Otherwise, during
the day, windy conditions will develop across all of northern
Arizona, strongest from the Mogollon Rim northward where a few
wind gusts will exceed 45 mph. In addition, a moist cold front
will sweep across the area. A good chance of showers will be
associated with this front. Showers will be most numerous from
Prescott, Flagstaff and the western Mogollon northward to the Utah
border from late morning through the afternoon. Snow levels are
still expected to remain elevated around the 8500 foot level.

From Tuesday onward...The moist pattern continues with a colder
air mass gradually filtering across northern Arizona. Weak and
fast moving disturbances will continue to bring at least a slight
chance of showers through the weeks end. Models continue to hint
that a stronger and colder system could move in late in the week.
We will continue to keep you posted.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z Forecast...SW winds will increase with gusts
of 30+ kts likely northeast(downwind) of mountainous terrain. Winds
gusting 30-40 kts will become more widespread through 02Z. Showers
will cross west to east, most numerous during the late morning and
afternoon hours with MVFR to IFR conditions. Most showers ending
after 00Z, but some low CIGS may continue over the higher terrain
into this evening. Snow levels to remain above 8000 feet MSL.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ004-005-009>014-




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