Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 221125
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
425 AM MST FRI APR 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT ARIZONA TODAY
PRODUCING WINDY CONDITIONS...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONE MORE DAY OF MILD TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR
NORTHERN ARIZONA, HOWEVER, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE A BIT
STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL LIKELY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.

ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON, DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON THE
COVERAGE AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
THAN THE GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE STRONG (100+ KTS) CYCLONICALLY
CURVED JET STREAK ALOFT WILL PLAY A LARGE PART IN DETERMINING JUST
HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXTEND. EXPECT THE GFS TO
COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AS
IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT SUCH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG
A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE GFS IS SUGGESTING.

THIS STORM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY, BUT ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT S TO SW WINDS 15-25 KTS GUSTING
UP TO 35 KTS FROM 18Z TO 01Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ON FRIDAY, A PASSING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CAUSE
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT EXCEED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA. IN ADDITION...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN APACHE COUNTY. STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE REGION ON MONDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ107-109-112>114-116-139-140.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOTTICE
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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