Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 101557
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST THU APR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SPRING DAY
AHEAD FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ARIZONA
THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH.

FOR SATURDAY...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA.
THE MAIN DYNAMICS...MOISTURE...AND COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THIS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND WARM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING LITTLE
PRECIPITATION...SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES
INDICATE THE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY NEAR 30N/140W...HAS INCORPORATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH. AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK DUE EAST IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP INGESTING RELATIVELY MOIST
AIR FROM THE 10-20 NORTH LATITUDE REGION AS IT APPROACHES ARIZONA.
HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY IN
ANTICIPATION THAT THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MORE MOISTURE THAN CURRENTLY MODELED. STILL NOT ANTICIPATING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
INCORPORATING A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CONTINUATION
OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING A DAY
OR SO OF LIGHT WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...THEN INDICATIONS ARE
THAT TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. BREEZY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM AROUND 18Z-01Z
TODAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 MPH
EACH AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND AND A CHANCE OF
HIGH BASED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC..........MCCOLLUM/DJO
AVIATION........AT/PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER....PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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