Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 010455
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 PM MST SUN JAN 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND WINDY STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...GUSTY
WINDS...AND FALLING SNOW LEVELS. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...WITH DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WINTER STORM IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
FLAGSTAFF WESTWARD ABOVE 6500 FEET. RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED BELOW
6500 FEET. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, WITH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY OCCURRING ACROSS YAVAPAI
AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, ORIENTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. THIS FRONT
WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
PASS FLAGSTAFF NOW, WINSLOW BETWEEN 11 PM AND 12 AM, SHOW LOW
BETWEEN 12 AND 1 AM AND WINDOW ROCK AROUND 2 AM. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
CHALLENGING WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS
A GUARANTEE. SNOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 3000 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. FOR EXPECTED
SNOW AMOUNTS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION, PLEASE CONSULT THESE WINTER WX
PRODUCTS, OUR WEATHER STORY GRAPHICS, AND POINT-AND-CLICK
FORECASTS VIA OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS - AGAIN CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

SNOWFALL RATES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EASTWARD. VERY COLD, BUT
DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY, WITH DAYTIME
TEMPS GRADUALLY GETTING WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. ALL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR DUE TO SN/RA
WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR IN HEAVY SNOW. ISOLATED EMBEDDED TS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS
OF LOWER ELEVATION MODERATE RAIN...BUT MAINLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH 00Z TUE. PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION FROM SHOWERY THIS EVENING...TO STRATIFORM
TONIGHT...BACK TO SHOWERY ON MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5
PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ008-009-018.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ004-006-007-
011-015>017-039.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...SUK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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