Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 151649

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
950 AM MST Sat Oct 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather, above normal temperatures and breezy
conditions will continue across northern Arizona through Tuesday.
A dry cold front is expected to pass through northern Arizona
around the middle of next week bringing cooler temperatures and
gusty northeasterly winds.


.DISCUSSION...Current forecast in good shape. Dry and breezy
conditions will continue across the forecast area today...becoming
windy by Sunday afternoon along and north of the Mogollon Rim. No
morning updates planned at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION.../442 AM MST/...A weak ridge aloft will lead to dry
weather, above normal temperatures and breezy conditions across
northern Arizona over the weekend. At this point, it looks like the
strongest winds of the period will occur on Sunday, with southwest
wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range along and north of the Mogollon
Rim. In addition, strong winds may persist Sunday night at locations
immediately to the northeast of mountainous terrain.

On Monday and Tuesday, mainly zonal flow is forecast across
northern Arizona with breezy west winds and dry conditions likely
continuing. Things change a bit late Tuesday and Wednesday as a
ridge develops over the east Pacific and a dry cold front sweeps
across northern Arizona from the north. As a result, daytime
temperatures are forecast to drop to near normal with gusty
northeast winds developing sometime around the middle of next
week. On Thursday, the Pacific ridge will begin to build across
northern Arizona causing decreasing wind speeds and a warming
trend late in the week. A return to above normal temperatures is
possible by next weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z forecast...VFR conditions expected
through the forecast period. Sfc winds SW15-25kts from 17z-01z
today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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