Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 202246

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
345 PM MST TUE SEP 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical moisture will continue to stream northward
across Arizona through Thursday. A trough of low pressure will bring
a cold front across northern Arizona Thursday night and Friday
morning with breezy to windy conditions. Drier/cooler conditions are
expected Friday through the weekend, with dry conditions.


.DISCUSSION...Rain showers have covered much of northern
Arizona today with the heaviest rain generally over Yavapai
Canyon and western Coconino County. Precipitation is expected to shift
eastward tonight. Less rainfall is expected over and area south of
Payson-Window Rock line. Rain chances will continue over northern
Arizona through Wednesday night as the remnants from Paine advect
northward over Arizona.

On Thursday...a large area of low pressure will move through the
PacNW and into the Great Basin. This system will have moisture from
Paine to work with and upward forcing to produce another round of
showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could become strong or even
severe at times Thursday afternoon...generally northwest of
Flagstaff. A cold front will sweep across Arizona Thursday night and
Friday morning. Dry and cooler air behind the front will bring an
end to the showers and cooler temperatures this weekend.

Models are now trending to bring the low back over New Mexico or
Arizona next week. This could lead to another period of showers.
This is a chance from earlier model runs. Will have to wait and
see if this trend continues.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Shower coverage will decrease
overnight with an isolated thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog will
likely form overnight across northwestern Arizona. Shower activity
will increase again on Wednesday. Scattered MVFR/IFR conditions are
expected. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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