Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 071048

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
348 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...For today, expect a round of below normal temperatures
and strong, but localized northeast winds along and south of the
Mogollon Rim. Then, high pressure will lead to warming temperatures
and lighter winds from Friday into next work week.


.DISCUSSION...Strong, localized northeast winds will continue
along and south of the Mogollon Rim through much of today. Wind
gusts into the 30 to 40 mph range will be possible, but are not
expected to be widespread enough to warrant a wind advisory.
Otherwise, expect the coldest temperatures of the next several
days, with high temperatures ranging from the mid-30`s to mid-40`s
along and north of the Mogollon Rim.

Beginning Friday, strong high pressure will build across the
western United States with a return of above normal temperatures
by the weekend. Longer term model guidance generally agrees that a
weak cutoff low will setup over Baja California early next work
week, but little impact to northern Arizona`s weather is
anticipated at this time.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions across
northern Arizona over the next 24 hours. Surface winds generally
northeast at 10 to 20 kt gusting to 30 kt, with locally higher gusts
to 40 kt. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Mainly dry, northerly flow aloft will continue as
another disturbance dives across New Mexico Today. This will bring
increased east through northeast winds with localized gusts to 45
mph along with pronounced cooling/drying to portions of northern
Arizona. Winds will decrease Friday as the disturbance moves off to
the east.

Saturday through Monday...Dry weather will continue with high
pressure building over the west coast. Daytime temperatures will
slowly return to average or above average, with easterly winds
gradually subsiding.






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