Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 130345

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
850 PM MST Mon Feb 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Rain and snow showers will continue tonight over
northern Arizona as a deep trough moves west of the area. Drier
conditions will develop late on Tuesday, with a good chance of
precipitation returning from Wednesday night and into Thursday.


.DISCUSSION...Decent QPF event continues over the western Mogollon
Rim this evening, with snow levels just under 7000 feet. A secondary
band of precipitation, along with a few lightning strikes, is noted
forming over western Yavapai and Coconino counties. This will move
up into Grand Canyon Country for the remainder of the night.

The upper low responsible for the precipitation and wind today is
starting to fill and slowly retrograde off the California coast.
This will allow for drier and warmer air to replace the airmass from
the southeast overnight. By Tuesday morning/afternoon, much of the
shower activity will be relegated to the western half of Coconino
county and snow levels and/or saturation depth will support mainly
just rain/drizzle.

After a break from roughly Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon, moisture returns from the south as the original upper low
ejects through the southern Great Basin. This will bring another
period of rain and high elevation snow to the area Wednesday night
through early Friday. Right now, it appears as through the emphasis
on precipitation will be farther south and east and snow levels will
be higher.

We will make minor timing and snow levels/QPF tweaks this evening,
but no major updates are planned.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Look for MVFR/IFR conditions in
snow and rain showers, primarily over the higher terrain, through
Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday evening...showers ending with mainly VFR
conditions developing. South to southwest winds 5-20 kts across
northern Arizona over the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not
updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A trough of low pressure over the western Great
Basin will move slowly southwest and off the San Diego coast by late
Tuesday. Rain and snow showers will slowly decrease overnight, with
generally dry conditions by Tueday afternoon and Wednesday. Gusty
winds from earlier today will decrease substantially overnight and
Tuesday, picking up again Wednesday.

.Thursday through Saturday...Expect moisture to return Thursday and
Friday, with drying conditions Saturday.



Winter Weather Advisory above 6500 feet until 5 AM MST Tuesday for




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