Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221714
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1015 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE UTAH BORDER TODAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
PAYSON TO WINDOW ROCK. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
MINOR UPDATES SENT. INCREASED POPS TO 100 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF
TODAY ALONG THE UT BORDER INCLUDING THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND PAGE.
ALSO LOWERED THE SNOW LEVEL A BIT IN FAR NORTHERN AZ AS COLDER AIR
HAS CHANGED RAIN OVER TO SNOW AT THE PAGE AIRPORT AT 4300 FEET.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU EAST
TO BLACK MESA AND THESE LOOK GOOD WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH FROM YAVAPAI COUNTY...ACROSS THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND INTO NORTHEAST AZ LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES IN. THIS AREA WILL SEE GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE AND
LIFT SO PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW
LEVELS AND ACCUMULATION FOR THE MOGOLLON RIM AREA INCLUDING
FLAGSTAFF. LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
THE 7000 FT LEVEL THROUGH AROUND 5 AM...THIS INCLUDES THE FLAGSTAFF
REGION SO SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNRISE IS UNCERTAIN. AS MONDAY
MORNING PROGRESSES...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN SO
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO 6500 FEET WITH A BETTER CHANCE AT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
TONIGHT/MONDAY FOR THE COCONINO PLATEAU...THE PAGE AREA...AND THE
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM INCLUDING FLAGSTAFF. CHECK BACK THIS AFTERNOON
FOR UPDATES.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(430 AM MST)...PROGS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO NRN AZ AND WAS
ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE SOUTH RIM OF
GCNP. RADAR AND SFC OBS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE KAIBAB PLATEAU.

THE COLD COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY. EXPECT
ANOTHER WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH
SW GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER MOVES INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PRECIP PART OF THE FORECAST.
PROGS SHOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY..WITH
DEEP SATURATION (NOW TO -32C) ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ACROSS COCONINO AND FAR
NORTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
HEAVY SNOW WAS EXPANDED AND NOW INCLUDES THE NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND
MESA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 264 AS WELL AS THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND BLACK
MESA AREAS.

TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND INTO ALL OF YAVAPAI COUNTY
AND THE NORTHERN HALVES OF NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXISTS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM EAST OF HAPPY JACK. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY...SNOW LEVELS TO RANGE FROM 3700 FEET AROUND PAGE TO 7000 IN
FLAGSTAFF AND 8000 FEET IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE BULK OF PRECIP
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE PAGE AND  BE
FLAGSTAFF AREA WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. LATER SHIFTS MAY DO
SO...STAY TUNED.

THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BUT LIQUID
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN MONDAY. PROGS ARE SHOWING
CLEARING ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE WHITE MTNS TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY NORTH THEN WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED. MAX AND MIN TEMPS TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A COLD PACIFIC STORM INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN SATURDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING VERY HEAVY LIQUID
ACCUMULATIONS AND IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE ECMWF. DEFINITELY STAY
TUNED ON THIS SECOND SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN AND SNOW NORTH OF A LINE FROM KIGM-KGCN-KFMN. PRECIPITATION
WILL DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCT -SHRA/-SHSN
ALONG THE RIM AFT 19Z...AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARRIVING KFLG AROUND
02Z-04Z MONDAY. MOST AREAS FROM KPAN NORTH AND WEST WILL SEE WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR AFT 06Z-08Z MONDAY. SFC WINDS SW 15-30KTS TODAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
AZZ004-009-039.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ/DL
AVIATION...BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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