Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 180336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
836 PM MST Sat Jun 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A strong warming trend will continue into next week
with record high temperatures likely during this period. An
Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for the lower elevations of
Yavapai, Coconino and northern Gila counties through Thursday. A
Heat Advisory is in effect for the remainder of Coconino, Yavapai,
Navajo, and Apache counties for Sunday through Thursday.


Satellite imagery this evening shows a large area of mid and high
level cloud cover massing along the AZ/UT border. These clouds
should push slowly southward into Arizona early Sunday. The
warming trend is still coming though and we are looking at
several sites approaching (like 1 or 2 degrees off) or tying their
all time record high temperature on Tuesday. The slight chance of
high based afternoon thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday along the
Mogollon Rim and White Mtns looks good. Tonights forecast is in
good shape with no updates.


.PREV DISCUSSION /327 PM MST/... Strong high pressure will lead to
well above normal and potentially record temperatures over the
coming days. Though not particularly windy, these hot and
generally dry conditions will impact any new wildfire starts in
the northland. We have expanded the Heat Advisory from Sunday
through Thursday to account for all of northern Arizona not
already covered by existing Heat Warnings or Advisories. A few
high-based thunderstorms may develop Monday and Tuesday, and to a
lesser extent later in the week, but appreciable rainfall at the
surface looks rather unlikely. These could, however, result in
some strong, gusty, and erratic wind gusts near any showers.


AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Smoke from area fires may create
localized MVFR visibility near the ground, especially overnight.
Smoke could also affect flight paths. There is an slight chance
of a thunderstorm over the White Mtns Sunday afternoon, which
would be capable of producing very strong wind gusts. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected to persist for the next twenty-four
hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER....Hot temperatures with afternoon RH in the single
digits and teens are forecast for Sunday and Monday. High Haines
indices will promote rapid fire growth. Cloud buildups will be
visible on Sunday. On Monday, thunderstorms producing minimal
rainfall and gusty winds are expected to develop over high terrain


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 8 PM MST Thursday FOR AZZ004-

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday FOR AZZ005-006-




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