Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251655
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST THU SEP 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE FLAGSTAFF REGION SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND WINDOW ROCK AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY. A
SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS WINDING UP
IN THE PACIFIC AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WE ARE SEEING INCREASING THREAT POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ON SATURDAY WITH THIS INCOMING
STORM SYSTEM. PLEASE STAY TUNED AS THE IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM UNFOLD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES
AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO ARIZONA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS
DRIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SEASONABLY STRONG PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP INTO ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM AND COLD FRONT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
BE INJECTED INTO THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE. THE WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILE LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING THREATS...LARGE
HAIL GREATER THAN 1 INCH...STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS GREATER THAN 58
MPH AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO`S. DEEP MOISTURE LEVELS AND STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. ON THE CONFIDENCE SIDE...WE BELIEVE THERE IS A
STRONGER POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS.
WE ADVISE YOU TO STAY TUNED TO OUR WEB PAGE AND LOCAL MEDIA SOURCES
FOR UPDATES ON THIS APPROACHING STORM.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LOW CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST AND DRIER
AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ON
SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
RUNNING THROUGH KFLG-KINW-KRQE. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
TO 40 KTS. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....BOHLIN
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








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