Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 260358
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
858 PM MST THU JUN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SLOWLY SPREADING
NORTHWEST OVER ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING, WITH JUST A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER GILA COUNTY.
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY LED TO A DECREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE, AND WE EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW. EVENING UPDATES
SENT EARLIER WITH NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /335 PM MST/...A HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS FORECAST
TO SET UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN LEADING TO A DRY WIND FLOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOGOLLON
RIM REGIONS, WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO
CAUSE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION,
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS TIME. FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 110 DEGREES IN THE LOW DESERTS OF
YAVAPAI COUNTY AND THE FLOOR OF THE GRAND CANYON.

BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY IS IN THE FORECAST. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY. LONGER TERM MODELS INDICATE THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WORK WEEK
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A LINE FROM PAYSON TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KT
THE MAIN HAZARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST
OF A LINE FROM PAYSON TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MONSOONAL FLOW RAMPS UP.
THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE ERRATIC WINDS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/RR
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...TM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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