Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 190402

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
902 PM MST MON JUL 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will continue to bring a chance of
showers and thundertorms through Thursday. Strong high pressure
and drier air could result in a downturn in activity toward the
end of the week.


Thunderstorm activity appears to be trending downward this
evening, with just a few isolated thunderstorms remaining. Will
continue to monitor storms overnight, but the short-term forecast
through morning currently looks in good shape.


The monsoon circulation has brought plentiful atmospheric moisture
back into to the area...with precipitable water values now up to
around 1.0" at KFLG. Instability has been somewhat limited...but
scattered thunderstorms have formed with a few locally heavy
showers, mainly over the higher terrain. Little change in the
overall pattern is anticipated through Thursday with the strong
ridge of high pressure in place over the Southern Plains and moist
southerly flow over Arizona, providing the environment for daily
thunderstorm activity across the forecast area. Storms will move a
bit slower Tuesday through Thursday, leading to a somewhat greater
chance for heavy rainfall accumulations.

Friday through Sunday...forecast models continue to show the
flattening of the ridge over the southern Rockies, and a
decrease in thunderstorm activity Friday through Sunday as drier
air filters in from the west.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Only isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected for the remainder of tonight. Storms
are likely to become more numerous again after 17Z Tuesday. Expect
visibility reductions and gusty winds near stronger storms
Tuesday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoon moisture is increasing across the area.
Expect increasing showers and thunderstorm coverage. Gusty
outflow winds are probable from any storms or showers, especially
today. Storm motion today from south to north about 10 mph.

Tuesday through Friday...Monsoon moisture to remain over northern
Arizona, with shower and thunderstorm chances each day. Winds may
become erratic and gusty near thunderstorms.






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