Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 240411

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
911 PM MST Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A cold low pressure area will continue to move
eastward across Arizona this evening. Showers and thunderstorms
will decreases from west to east this evening and more rapidly
after dark. Dry conditions are expected Friday. Additional low
pressure systems will move across the Southwest region Saturday
and again next week.


.UPDATE...Some earlier changes were made to more quickly decrease
precip chances throughout the evening. Those changes are working
out well, as radar observations show only a few light showers
remaining. We have also added some patchy fog between midnight and
8 am for higher elevation areas that saw appreciable snow cover
early Thursday morning. Those areas have experienced some melting
during the day today as temperatures warmed into the mid-30s or
so and we saw a little sun. As clouds clear from west to east, we
should see some patchy fog as temperatures cool.

In addition, many of the locations which melted quite a bit of
snow today will observe low temperatures in the 20s Friday
morning. Depending on how ground temperatures work into the
equation, wet spots on roadways could freeze. At the least, expect
freezing of wet spots on elevated surfaces. Ice will quickly melt
once the sun rises on Friday and temperatures warm.


.PREV DISCUSSION /343 PM MST/...An area of low pressure continues
to move across northern Arizona this afternoon. Scattered rain
and snow showers with isolated thunderstorms (some with small
hail) will continue this afternoon and into this evening. This
activity will decrease from west to east as the low moves east and
it gets dark (loss of surface heating). Much of the precipitation
should end by around midnight. The current system will move east
of the state tonight with brief ridging and much warmer
temperatures on Friday. The next trough will affect the area
Saturday into Saturday night, bringing a chance of precipitation
mainly to areas north of a Prescott-Window Rock line. At this
point, amounts appear light with snow levels 7000 to 8000 feet.
Fair and warmer conditions return Sunday into early Monday, then
more unsettled weather looks to return to the region with cooler
and showery weather possible starting late Monday. The EC moves
this low into New Mexico by early Wednesday morning. The GFS is
showing a much stronger system that cuts off and then moves into
New Mexico by Thursday morning. Either solution (or a combination
of the two) will bring a period of cold, wet, and windy weather to
northern Arizona. Stay tuned as details become more certain.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...MVFR-IFR cigs will be possible
through the early morning hours near the New Mexico state line as
the low exits to the east. Patchy fog may lower visibility into
the IFR range at higher elevations through 14-15Z. VFR conditions
expected after 15z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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