Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS65 KFGZ 211029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
330 AM MST WED SEP 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture will continue to stream across Arizona
through Thursday night. A vigorous front will bring cooler
conditions to the area on Friday, with gusty winds ahead of the
front on Thursday. Drier weather and a slow warming trend can
be expected by the weekend and into early next week.


.DISCUSSION...A distinct lack of dynamics has manifested itself
overnight, indicated by a significant decrease in shower coverage.
This is despite an impressive moisture plume that remains over the
southwest and an intact circulation nearing the northern Baja. It is
these features, combined with improved surface heating today, that
will keep pops in the forecast that are a bit higher than what most
guidance is currently indicating.

By tonight, deepening low pressure over the northwestern Great Basin
will keep our moisture pool intact. By Thursday morning through
Friday morning, a trough will move through the area and will act on
this moisture. This will be a fairly vigorous trough passage, with
enough colder air aloft and shear to at least think about isolated
severe storms.

Expect drier, warmer and more stable air heading into the weekend
and early next week.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect scattered MVFR and IFR
conditions over the next 24 hours. Early morning patchy fog is
expected to form along and northwest of a Prescott-Flagstaff-Page
line. Shower activity will increase in coverage again later today.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.