Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 270404
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
904 PM MST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT A RETURN TO
A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
THIS. NO OTHER FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /326 PM MST/...EXPECT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH PASSING BY OUR
NORTH. THIS ENABLE THE MONSOON BREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
TO CONTINUE...WITH CHANCES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
LIMITED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
BEGINNING MIDWEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RETURN ARIZONA TO A MORE
TYPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON MONDAY... EXPECT BREEZY SW WINDS WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION AFTER 15Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE
ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
COME BACK FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST IS EXPECTED WITH EACH PASSING DAY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/KD
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...AT


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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