Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS65 KFGZ 192154

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
254 PM MST Wed Oct 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will persist across northern Arizona
through at least Saturday. Expect breezy northeast winds through
tomorrow morning along and south of the Mogollon Rim. A strong
warming trend will develop starting tomorrow, with afternoon
temperatures around 10 degrees above normal this weekend. A chance
of showers and thunderstorms is forecast for Monday through Tuesday.


A dry cold front has moved across the Mogollon Rim this morning.
This feature has brought breezy north to northeast surface winds
and very much drier air below 10000 ft msl. The breezy northeast
winds are expected to continue tonight along and south of the
Mogollon Rim. Areas north of the rim to see light winds tonight
with Thursday mornings lows in the lower to mid 30s.

From Thursday through Saturday - Progs are consistent in showing a
warm ridge of high pressure aloft to build and move slowly across
the desert southwest. Max temps start a warming trend, with values
around 10 degrees above normal for the weekend.

From Sunday through Tuesday - Most of todays 12z progs are now
generating very light qpf on Sunday which was only seen in the
previous runs of the ECMWF. Not feeling confident enough at this
point to add a chance of showers for Sunday, however cloud cover
will be increasing. Progs remain consistent in bringing decent
moisture, wind shear and instability across the northland Monday
and Tuesday and precip chances were raised as forecaster
confidence increases. Daytime thunderstorms are possible both
Monday and Tuesday.

We should return to a dry weather pattern on Wednesday.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z forecast...Look for VFR conditions under
mostly clear skies to persist over the next 24 hrs. The exception
being areas near planned burning activity which could see lowered
VIS/CIG due to smoke, including KFLG. Expect locally breezy NE winds
tonight, especially southwest of higher terrain features. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.