Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 181046

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
346 AM MST THU AUG 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast each
day through the first half of next week. Temperatures will
generally be near normal through the period.


A weak flow pattern aloft will allow for monsoonal moisture to
linger over the region bringing chances of showers and
thunderstorms...mainly in the late morning through afternoon time
frame each day throughout the period. A dispersed upper level low
pressure system will start out over the intermountain region of
California and Nevada today giving Arizona moist southerly flow
responsible for shower and thunderstorm activity again today. A
weak disturbance in the flow has allowed for some showers to
remain active into the early morning hours...however most of the
activity is expected to remain in Southern and Central Arizona.

A large scale trough will dip into the northern United States
along the eastern side of the Rocky Mountains, this will push the
low pressure system responsible for the southerly flow westward
and effectively limit broadscale support for the moist airmass by
Saturday...however weak forcing will still remain over the area
and convective activity will still be possible, although a little
more widespread and not as active as Thursday and Friday.

With the large scale trough pushing eastward early next week the
low off the California coast will begin to integrate into the
zonal flow and will allow for southwesterly winds to once again
develop over the region and enhance atmospheric moisture and
convective thunderstorm chances going into next work week.
Confidence out in the later half of the work week drops off as
some forecast solutions are calling for a continuation of the
monsoonal pattern, while others begin to transition into a drier
more zonal flow. Have kept conditions near seasonal values at
this time knowing that conditions may change either towards drier
or wetter weather by this time next week.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Scattered showers and even a stray
thunderstorm is possible through 17Z mainly south of a Seligman-
Flagstaff-Sanders line. After 17Z...scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop and last through around 02Z.
Then isolated storms are expected after 02Z.  Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.






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