Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271025
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
325 AM MST SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY FROM FLAGSTAFF
SOUTHEASTWARD. ON SUNDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY INTO THE WORK WEEK AS DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN MOST
LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 4000 FEET IN THE GRAND CANYON. EXPECT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU TO FLAGSTAFF AND POINTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY
AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT TO A MORE FAVORABLE
ORIENTATION. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA EACH DAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
ALONG WITH SOME HAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE THIS MORNING SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EAST OF A KPAN TO KRQE LINE WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE WHITE MTNS WHERE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA EACH AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 8
AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CLM/KD
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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