Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 190452

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
952 PM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect very windy and colder conditions with areas of
rain and snow starting tonight and lasting through Tuesday.
Drier, but cool weather arrives Wednesday and Thursday, with a
chance of rain and snow again by the end of the week.


.UPDATE...Winds continue to increase this evening as a cold front
approaches northern Arizona from the northwest. The front
currently stretches from near Las Angeles, north of Desert Rock,
to just south of Salt Lake City. Surface dewpoints are mostly in
the 30s across northern Arizona (Page is 25F). A few showers have
developed over southeast Arizona...from around Tucson eastward.
The 00Z KFGZ sounding showed a relatively shallow layer of
moisture with only a PWat of 0.21 inch. Will monitor situation...
we may need to update forecast to delay the onset of
precipitation and lower amounts.


.PREV DISCUSSION /342 PM MST/...A potent winter storm will bring
significant snow and wind to northern Arizona over the next 36
hours. The high wind watch previously in effect Monday for
northeast Arizona has been upgraded to a warning with gusts
between 60-70 mph possible in this portion of the state. Much of
the remainder of the area will experience gusts of 40-50 mph
tonight and into Monday. Latest snowfall guidance continues to
support significant snowfall mainly at the higher elevations as
upslope flow generates precipitation focused over the higher
terrain. The eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains are
expected to receive the heaviest snowfall with this system where
some areas could receive between 12-18 inches. Precipitation is
expected to diminish rapidly behind the front Monday evening and
into the overnight hours, lingering in the White Mountains until
early Tuesday. Very cold temperatures are expected behind the
system Tuesday and Wednesday with some below zero low temperature
readings possible in the higher terrain with fresh snowpack.

A cold and unsettled weather pattern continues late in the week
with another storm system potentially affecting the area late
Thursday into Friday. There remains model disagreement on the
evolution of this system, but the potential exists for another
round of showers and windy conditions. This could be followed by
another weaker system late in the weekend. The bottom line is this
is an active weather pattern so stay tuned to the forecast
through the coming week.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Gusty southwest winds will persist
and strengthen overnight through Monday afternoon. Sustained wind
speeds of 20-30 kts with gusts of 35-45 kts. Stronger gusts of 50-55
kt are expected Monday north and east of KFLG. MVFR cigs will become
widespread along the higher terrain from KFLG southeast this
evening, with scattered showers developing. After 06Z, showers
will increase in coverage and intensity with localized IFR
conditions above 6kft MSL due to snowfall and areas of blowing snow.
These conditions will persist through 02z Tue especially from KFLG
southeast, then linger through 06Z near the White Mountains.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty southwest winds will persist through much of
Monday as a strong cold front crosses the region. The strongest
winds tonight will be along and north of the Mogollon Rim, where
wind gusts as high as 50 mph are expected. On Monday, the strongest
winds will occur east of Flagstaff, where wind gusts between 60 and
70 mph are expected. In addition, rain and high elevation snow
showers will accompany the front with accumulating snow above 6,000
to 6,500 feet through Monday. Chances for snow showers linger into

Wednesday through Friday...Below normal temperatures will continue
through the second half of the week. Another storm system will bring
increased winds and a chance of showers Thursday into Friday.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST Monday FOR AZZ006>008-038.

High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 5 PM MST Monday FOR AZZ005-

Wind Advisory until 7 AM MST Monday FOR AZZ005-009>014-039-040.

Wind Advisory until midnight MST tonight FOR AZZ004-015>017.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Tuesday FOR AZZ016-017.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST Monday FOR AZZ004-015.




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