Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 272236
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
335 PM MST THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS EVENING AND THEN REDEVELOP BY
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRYING WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVER OUR AREA. LOOK FOR SCATTERED DAYTIMES
STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN EAST OF FLAGSTAFF AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS ELSEWHERE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A VERY ACTIVE DAY SOUTH OF I-40 WITH SEVERAL STORMS
DROOPING OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. STILL EXPECTING
THE VERDE VALLEY AND SEDONA AREAS SEE SOME STORMS AS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS JUST ABOUT TO MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO
THE VERDE VALLEY. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 8 PM AND THEN
DIMINISH. VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY
DUE TO DRIER MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. VERY LITTLE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS INDICATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT (HOURS (8PM-10
AM) FROM TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WHITE MTNS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE VERY LIGHT FLOW ALOFT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP
SIMILAR MOISTURE AND STABILITY PROFILES OVER THE AREA. THUS
SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN PUSH INTO NRN GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES AGAIN.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF
THE WEST COAST WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ARIZONA.
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES TO SEE DAYTIME STORM CHANCES
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND A RETURN OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOONS. THE MONSOON PLUME TO BE PUSHED SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH
TIME WITH SCATTERED STORMS LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT BKN-OVC CIGS AOA 10KFT MSL
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ANS SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH THROUGH 03Z FRI THEN DIMINISH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP. IFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC...GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...DL


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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