Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 161627

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
927 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An approaching cold front will produce increased
southwesterly winds today and Friday. Behind the front, look for
the colder overnight temperatures on Saturday and Sunday.


Have increased the opaque sky cover forecast for the rest of
today per this mornings satellite loop, the updated grids and
text products are out. A few light showers are showing up around
Fredonia this morning as well, but moving quickly to the
northeast. The wind advisory for Friday looks solid, will take a
closer look at whether an upgrade to high wind warning is


.PREV DISCUSSION /413 AM MST/... A change in the weather pattern
will bring a more active shift in weather for the rest of the week
through the weekend and into early next week.

Winds will increase today ahead of a shortwave trough that is
looking to quickly move across the area Friday. Wind speeds look
to remain below advisory level for Thursday but wind sites may see
the occasional gust above 35 mph.

By Friday the shortwave trough will pass over the area and bring
some potential for showers, mainly along the higher terrain near
the Utah Arizona border. Precipitation amounts should be
relatively light. The bigger concern on Friday will be widespread
strong gusty winds north of the Mogollon Rim. While windspeed look
to be below high wind warning criteria, the speeds should be
strong enough to cause difficult driving conditions especially for
high profile vehicles. Winds should decrease Friday night behind
the cold front.

Saturday and Sunday look to be some of the colder temperatures so
far this season. High temperatures will climb back towards near
normal values Saturday, and slightly above normal on Sunday.

Models begin to diverge by Monday on the location of another
shortwave trough that looks to remain north of the area. Models
are beginning to show a quicker return of the ridge of high
pressure, this could keep the shortwave trough further away from
Northern Arizona and limit its impacts. By the middle of next week
guidance moves into agreement that a large scale ridge will be
residing over the American Southwest, yielding warm and dry
conditions for the middle of next week.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions are forecast for
the majority of northern Arizona over the next 24 hours under
increasing cloud cover. Through 01Z, expect southwest winds 5-15 kt
gusting 15-25 kt across much of the area. Winds may remain breezy
overnight at locations northeast of higher terrain. A chance of
light rain will develop this evening through Friday morning, with
the highest chances over the higher elevations north of a KGCN-KOV7
line. MVFR conditions possible in these areas at times, including
briefly at KGCN. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...An approaching cold front will cause increasing
southwest winds, with the highest speeds expected Friday along and
north of the Mogollon Rim. Light showers are possible late Thursday
through Friday, mainly along and north of Interstate 40.

Saturday through Monday...Temperatures drop to near normal behind
the front on Saturday, with above normal temperatures returning by
Sunday. Otherwise, expect very dry conditions and lighter winds.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Friday FOR AZZ004>007-




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