Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 160347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
847 PM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An approaching cold front will produce increased
southwesterly winds Thursday and Friday. Behind the front, look
for the colder overnight temperatures on Saturday and Sunday.


.DISCUSSION...Look for skies to become mostly clear across
northern Arizona as the night progresses. Otherwise, light winds
and seasonably mild overnight temperatures are in store. The
current forecast is right on target. Enjoy another excellent

The main story over the next few days will be an approaching cold
front which will bring increased southwesterly winds, a chance of
light precipitation, and cooler temperatures to the region. Ahead
of the front, southwesterly winds will increase Thursday and
Friday with the strongest winds over the higher terrain Friday.
Wind advisories may be necessary for areas along and north of the
Mogollon Rim. There is a chance of light precipitation with the
front late Thursday into early Friday with areas north of I-40
most likely to see any precipitation.

Behind the front, cooler and much drier air will filter into the
region with the coldest lows of the season likely this weekend.
Near normal high temperatures Saturday will rebound to above
normal values by early next week. Model guidance continues to
advertise the potential for another disturbance to move near the
area in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe, but confidence remains low
on the exact track of this feature and any impacts on northern


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Look for VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours under scattered to broken high clouds. Light winds
overnight. Stronger winds will develop by midday Thursday with
southwest winds 10-20 kt gusting 25-30 kt. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Southwesterly afternoon breezes will increase over
the next two days with the strongest winds occurring Friday,
greatest along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Temperatures will cool
Friday to near normal values. Very light precipitation amounts are
possible Thursday night and Friday morning, mainly along and north
of Interstate 40.

Saturday through Monday...Behind the front, near normal temperatures
will continue on Saturday before returning to above normal values
late in the weekend and into early next week. Otherwise, dry air and
weaker winds can be expected through the period.






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