Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241727
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1026 AM MST WED JUN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SLOWLY SPREADING
NORTHWEST OVER ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO SLIT THE 18Z-00Z GRID INTO 3
HOUR PERIODS. HI-RES MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FORMING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOGOLLON
RIM BEFORE PUSHING OUTFLOWS THROUGH GILA COUNTY. DECIDED TO RAISE
POP`S A BIT IN GILA AND DECREASE POPS A BIT IN THE WHITES IN THE
21Z-00Z TIME FRAME. ASIDE FROM THAT, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /352 AM MST/...DIURNALLY INITIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA. WITH
NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS STILL DRY...GUSTY/DOWNBURST WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WARMER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS
WILL ALSO PERSIST. THE MONSOONAL FLOW SHIFTS TO A MORE FAVORABLE
ORIENTATION BY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND AN INCREASE
IN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR SMOKE SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER KFLG BY 19Z.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST OF
I-17 AND HIGHWAY 89 THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST STORM
THREAT WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS IN OR NEAR
STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR EASTERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
ELSEWHERE. STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. OTHERWISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES. HAINES INDICES WILL BE
MODERATE TO HIGH ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEK.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN
UP LATER THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/KD
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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