Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 142243

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
343 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level disturbance will bring a chance for
showers along primarily south of I-40 today. A drying and warming
trend is forecast Wednesday through Thursday. Another cold front
is expected to bring colder temps and rain and snow Friday through
the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Current Satellite and radar imagery continue to show
scattered showers across the high country of eastern Arizona
assocaited with a weak disturbance that is combining with daytime
heating to produce minimal precipitation. This activity is
expected to continue through the remainder of the afternoon hours
as the energy exits the area, and sunset weakens convective

Quiet and fair conditions will develop over the region through
thursday as a ridge of high pressure shifts south eastward over
the Four Corners region of the U.S. By thursday increasing clouds
will begin to move over the area as the ridge is pushed off
eastward and the next low pressure trough exerts its influence
over the South West.

Models continue to push the trough south off the U.S. Mexico line
before the trough cuts off and forms a closed low. As the midnight
forecast noted, this track would shift the focus of precipitation
southward. The bottom line is that a wet weather pattern is
developing for the weekend with potential for moderate to heavy
precipitation, but the precipitation impacts are not certain. We
again used a blend of operational models for this weekends
forecast, and expect snow levels in the 7000-8000 foot elevation
range Friday and Friday night. Progs now show snow levels up
500-1000 feet on Saturday v Friday due to warm southerly flow, and
falling again on Sunday. An unsettled west/northwest flow will
continue the chance for showers into Monday. Stay tuned for
further forecast detail as this system nears.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expected VFR conditions to
prevail for the bulk of the forecast period. MVFR conditions will
be possible over eastern Arizona as shower winds down around
sunset tonight. Light winds. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.






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