Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 201054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
354 AM MST TUE SEP 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Remnants from Tropical Storm Paine will lead to
elevated rain chances over northern Arizona through Thursday.
Drier/cooler conditions are forecast Friday through the weekend,
with dry conditions and a warming trend forecast during the first
half of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a precipitation shield
gradually spreading northward across western Arizona this morning.
The latest high-res models prog precipitation gradually
overspreading the rest of northern Arizona today. Rainfall amounts
should generally remain around one-half an inch or less.

Rain chances will continue over northern Arizona tonight through
Wednesday night as the remnants from Tropical Storm Paine advect
northward over Arizona. Periods of light to moderate rainfall are
forecast, with no flooding concerns expected at this time.

By Thursday, an upper level low is forecast to dig from the Pacific
NW into central Nevada. Given the strength and position of this
feature, high chances for precipitation are forecast for western
Coconino county including the Grand Canyon. Dynamically driven
thunderstorms could become strong or even severe at times Thursday
afternoon near the Grand Canyon. However, instability will be the
limiting factor.

Thursday night, the low`s attendant cold front is progged to sweep
across northern Arizona. Synoptic subsidence should lead to dry
conditions Friday. However, cooler air in the wake of the cold front
should lead to temperatures around 10 degrees below normal through
the weekend.

High pressure is then progged to build over the western US during
the first half of next week. This should lead to dry conditions over
northern Arizona with temperatures warming to near normal readings.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package... Expect increasing coverage for
rain showers this morning with an isolated thunderstorm possible.
Scattered MVFR and Isolated IFR conditions are possible...mainly
from Flagstaff West. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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