Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231654

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
954 AM MST MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Look for breezy late mornings and afternoons with
below normal temperatures through the coming week as a series of
weather disturbances brush northern Arizona.


Short-term forecast of breezy and dry conditions looks on track
with no major updates foreseen this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /347 AM MST/... Cool and breezy conditions are
expected through the bulk of the work week as southwest flow
aloft streams over the area. This is due to a large scale low
pressure system off the California Coast dominating the weather
pattern in the near term. Temperatures will remain 5 to 10
degrees below seasonal values, with limited potential for moisture
through the first half of the work week.

By Wednesday, the low pressure trough should eject some energy
over the area and could produce some showers and thunderstorms
starting wednesday afternoon and continuing through Thursday.
While the current model consensus agrees on this solution in
general terms, the lack of previous model runs supporting this
conclusion is limiting confidence that this will continue to be
the forecasted track of the shortwave across the area. Should
subsequent model runs show this solution, confidence will increase
and drive probability of precipitation upwards.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
northern Arizona during the next 24 hours. South to southwest
winds of 10-20 knots gusting to 30 knots are expected from around
17z to around 02z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy and dry conditions will continue today and
Tuesday as pressure gradients favoring southwesterly surface winds
remain in place. Near critical fire weather conditions at lower
elevations each afternoon.

Wednesday through Friday...Locally breezy and mainly dry. Winds
trending lighter for Thursday and Friday. The passage of a weak
weather disturbance will bring with it a slight chance of






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