Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 111125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
425 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Fair weather will return Sunday with cool and wetter
conditions in store for much of next week.


Active weather will continue to unfold for Northern Arizona during
the next week. Quiet but cooler conditions are expected on Sunday
behind the cold front that brought snow to the Four Corners Region
of Arizona.

By Monday morning the next round of showers should begin to affect
the area as a large scale trough dives south down over the Sierra
Nevadas and ejects moisture and energy throughout the day Monday
in to Northern Arizona. This is expected to also increase wind
speeds throughout the day monday.

The low is expected to close off and retrograde back over
California around late monday, and depending on placement of this
separation from the mean flow we could see a break in the wetter

Unfortunately there is not a lot of model consensus at this time,
over the finer details of this transition. Have kept some chances
for showers in each day early this week to account for this lack
of confidence at this point.

By the later half of the week the next trough of low pressure is
expected to sweep across the Western United States and will
reintegrate this closed low back into the mean flow. When this
happens the low is expected to move across the area and should
bring widespread precipitation to Northern Arizona. Higher chances
look to be around Thursday of this week, however have left chances
widespread to account for this uncertainty in timing.

Although conditions will be cooler than recent trends, this drop
in temperatures will put us back within around 5 degrees of normal
values for the bulk of the forecast period.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Breezy easterly winds this morning
will slowly shift to the south or southwest at most places by this
afternoon. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with increasing mid and
high level clouds in the latter half of the 24 hour period. Aviation
discussion not updated for amendments.






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