Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 291133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
435 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect cold and mainly dry conditions through much of
the week and into the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...An upper low just east of the Four Corners this
morning has brought much drier and colder air into Arizona. Some
lingering showers near the White Mtns are what remains of a frontal
system that moved through yesterday. In addition, some wrap around
showers associated with upper low are currently affecting far
northeast Arizona. Both these areas should dissipate later this
morning as the low continues to move eastward.

Surface winds will become north or northeast today behind the low,
ending the last several days of strong and gusty southwest winds.

Wednesday and Thursday will feature moderating temperatures and
continued dry conditions as a s/wv ridge moves across the area. This
ridge is ahead of another low pressure system that will drive south
out of the Great Basin Friday and Saturday. This trajectory looks to
be fairly dry, but the cold air will return for the weekend.

Longer range models indicate potential for a storm by the middle of
next week. Solutions are widely variable right now, but something to
keep an eye on.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z forecast...VFR conditions are likely
across northern Arizona for the next 24 hours. An exception to this
may be in along the Arizona/New Mexico border where lingering snow
showers could result in brief MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities
through 15Z, especially in the Four Corners Region. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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