Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 290345
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
845 PM MST FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA
MONDAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES ARE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /300 PM MST/... WE ARE SEEING WIDELY SCATTERED
STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION
ALOFT IS CENTERED OVER NW AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT MOVING THIS FEATURE INTO NEW MEXICO SATURDAY. THE
CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CENTER WILL BRING A DAYS WORTH OF
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO NORTHERN AZ. MOISTURE INSTABILITY AND
CONVECTIVE STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE...THOUGH NOT TO THE
LEVELS SEEN THURSDAY. WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TO PUSH INTO NORTHWESTERN AZ. THE BEST TIME FOR ANY SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH
OF A SELIGMAN TO WINDOW ROCK LINE OWING TO MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OVERLAYING THE MONSOON PLUME.

FOR NEXT WEEK...PROGS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A
STRONG DRYING TREND STARTING MONDAY IN WESTERN AZ AND MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WERE BASED ON GFS LI
AND POP FORECASTS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE THREAT FOR STORMS FROM
10 PM TO 10 AM IS NIL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT APACHE COUNTY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS APACHE
COUNTY WITH ISOLATED DAYTIME COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. ON TUESDAY
PRETTY MUCH ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE EAST OF A KAYENTA TO PAYSON
LINE AND BY WEDNESDAY ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE AZ
NM BORDER. MAX TEMPS WERE RAISED 1-3 DEGREES EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL REDEVELOP AROUND 18-19Z SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY
AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/DL
AVIATION...KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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