Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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819
FXUS65 KFGZ 311134 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
434 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE STATE NEAR THE UTAH BORDER THIS MORNING.
A COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND FALLING SNOW LEVELS.
ANTICIPATE DANGEROUS WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. CLEARING WILL ENSUE FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...WELL, A FAIRLY RESPECTABLE STORM EVENT CONTINUES TO
UNFOLD THIS SUNDAY MORNING. AS A GOOD MOISTURE TAP AND JET DEVELOP
TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS HEADING
SOUTH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING IN SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING, THIS
ATMOSPHERIC FEATURE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR INCREASING SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW APPROACHES ARIZONA, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER
WESTERN COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC PRECIP FORMING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THIS EVENING SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AT 6500 TO 75OO FEET. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD 1-3 HOURS
OF RAIN SNOW MIXED A HEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. GOOD AMOUNTS OF MOIST AIR ARE
FORECAST TO SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG AND A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON TO THE EAST SNOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY
DROP...SO THAT BY MONDAY MORNING SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE FALLEN TO
AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET.

THE MOST INTENSE AND MOST SEVERE WINTER CONDITIONS/DRIVING
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 800 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 600 AM
MONDAY MORNING...AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
TO MAKE MATTERS EVEN MORE UNFAVORABLE...WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH...HELPING TO
CREATE BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES...AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY MAKE CERTAIN
SECTIONS OF ROADS IMPASSABLE.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...MAKING
TRAVEL DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS IN PLACES.

THERE ARE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND SNOW ADVISORIES OUT FOR
NORTHERN ARIZONA...STARTING FIRST FOR THE NORTH AND SOUTH RIM OF
THE GRAND CANYON...THEN STARTING FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO...FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...NORTHER GILA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...WHITE MOUNTAINS...BLACK MESA...AND CHUSKA
MOUNTAINS...AND MOST VALLEYS INCLUDING THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND THE CHINLE VALLEY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SECTIONS OF
NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES...HOWEVER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WARMER AND DRY...HOWEVER COLD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WITH THE NEW SNOW COVER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK...COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH STORM SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OR THROUGH NORTHERN
ARIZONA. TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
ARE POORLY DEFINED AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A SFC FRONT IS ALONG THE AZ/UT
BORDER THIS MORNING. SCT SHRA/SHSN WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND
SNOW LEVELS FROM 6500-7500 FT MSL NOW ALONG AND NORTH OF A KIGM-K0V7-
KCEZ KINE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH REACHING A KRQE-KFLG-KPRC LINE BY 00Z
MON. SW WINDS 15-25 KTS GUSTING 30-35 KTS.

AFT 00Z MON...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR ACROSS NRN AZ IN WIDESPREAD
SHRA/SHSN AND AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH 12Z MON.
SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FT MSL AT SUNRISE MONDAY AND FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5
PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ008-009-018.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR AZZ007-011-015>017-039.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ004-006.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC
AVIATION...DL


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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