Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 150410
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXIT THURSDAY EVENING BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 5500 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA AS A TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ALOFT TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IT IS PROBABLY A BIT TOO
DRY FOR WIDESPREAD FOG COVERAGE BUT LOCALIZED FORMATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING
THE SOUTHWEST STATES BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THAT A BROAD TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY WITH A
STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5500
FEET WEDNESDAY. MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS DO VARY THOUGH WITH
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WITH THE GFS BEING 2 TO 3 TIMES HIGHER THAN THE
ECMWF. WE HAVE BLENDED THE MODEL OUTPUT FOR NOW WHICH HAS LESS THAN
0.20 INCH ANYWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT LOOK
TO BE THE PRIME TIMES FOR STEADY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SECOND WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
THURSDAY WITH CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKING SUNNY AND DRY. MODELS ARE DELAYING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE NEXT LOW UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COMING AT US FROM
THE NORTH AND NOT NEARLY AS WET AS THE MID WEEK EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA INCLUDING KINW LASTING UNTIL
15-17Z. ELSEWHERE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM/DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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