Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 171156

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
455 AM MST Thu Aug 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will persist through Friday. Showers and
thunderstorms will gradually return late in the weekend and early
next week, as monsoon moisture returns.


.DISCUSSION...Dry westerly flow aloft will persist through the end
of the week. Despite some cooling aloft, the airmass is just too dry
to support convection, especially when coupled with our abnormally
dry boundary layer.

Low pressure will take residence off the west coast over the weekend
and into early next week. With high pressure over Texas and New
Mexico, southerly flow will strengthen during this time period. This
may open the door for moisture to return, but a full blown monsoonal
circulation is not expected. In fact, it it possible that the rest
of the season may feature a battle between southwest and southerly
flow, with the pure monsoonal circulation never really returning.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the 24
hour forecast period. Southwest winds 5-15kts from 18Z-01Z today.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A break in monsoon storms will continue today and
Friday. Expect lower than usual humidity for this time of year,
along with light southwest winds and near normal temperatures.

Saturday through Monday...Limited moisture returning Saturday may
bring a slight chance of thunderstorms near the White Mountains.
Moisture is forecast to spread farther north and west by Sunday and
Monday with thunderstorm chances returning to most of northern






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