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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281048
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 AM MST FRI FEB 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
ARIZONA SATURDAY. EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED AROUND 500
MILES OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THE LOW CENTER
WILL FILL RAPIDLY AS IT APPROACHES ARIZONA FROM THE WEST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...REDUCING THE DYNAMIC LIFT. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL SPREAD A SLOW MOVING SWATH OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS ARIZONA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN ARIZONA BY
THIS AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE FLOW THEN DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2+ INCHES OVER THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE YAVAPAI CO MTNS
AND MOGOLLON RIM. A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...WITH 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES NORTH
OF THE RIM ACROSS NE ARIZONA. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT
OR ABOVE 8000-8500 FEET FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO THE RELATIVE WARMTH AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR MASS. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE OVERALL FLOODING THREAT
WITH THIS EVENT IS LOW...THOUGH SOME RISES ALONG AREA CREEKS AND
RIVERS CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING IN THE FLAGSTAFF
AREA...THOUGH MUCH LATER (SAT NIGHT) IN EASTERN AREAS SUCH AS SHOW
LOW AND WINDOW ROCK. THOUGH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE EVENT
WILL FALL AS RAIN BELOW THE 8500 FOOT LEVEL...WE STILL EXPECT SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 6000-8000 FOOT ZONE. CURRENT FORECASTS ARE
FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-6 INCHES IN THESE AREAS FROM SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THESE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...IF THE SNOW LEVELS FALL SOONER THAN EXPECTED THEN THE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE...STAY TUNED. THE HIGHEST PEAKS ABOVE 9000
FEET COULD SEE 1-2 FEET OF SNOW.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH
MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED -SHRA DEVELOPING WEST OF KPGA-KPHX LINE BY
18Z. PRECIPITATION AND MVFR COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AZ
BY 00Z SAT AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AFT 00Z IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SFC WINDS TODAY S-SW 20-30KT GUSTS TO 35KT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF