Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 190405

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
905 PM MST THU AUG 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Typical monsoon weather with scattered thunderstorms
will remain in the forecast through the weekend, with a decrease
in storm activity forecast early next week. Temperatures will
generally be near normal.


Isolated and generally light showers are continuing across
portions of northern Arizona this evening. Expect that this
limited activity will persist into the overnight hours. Another
round of thunderstorm development looks in store for the daytime
hours Friday. Little change to inherited forecast package is


.PREV DISCUSSION /310 PM MST/...With little change in the weak
flow pattern and dispersed low pressure over the southwest
expected over the next couple days...only minor variations in the
day to day storm activity is expected through the weekend...with
the continued threats of locally heavy rain and small hail.

In the extended forecast...the models are showing some consensus
of strengthening zonal flow early next week which will likely
bring drier air into the area...and a reduction in thunderstorm
activity. Current GFS ensembles indicates a drop in the PW by
Monday...which is consistent with this thinking. The NAM is a bit
quicker with the reduction of PWs and drying...bringing it in on
Sunday. Going with low grade monsoon conditions next week in the
current forecast...most pronounced over the northern part of the


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Isolated -SHRA through the
overnight period. Scattered thunderstorms will develop again on
Friday after 17Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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