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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191619
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
919 AM MST SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE KAIBAB PLATEAU
SOUTHWARD INTO THE YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE
MOUNTAINS TODAY. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FEWER AND WEAKER STORMS CONFINED MAINLY TO
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. FROM
TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A LINE OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS YAVAPAI...GILA AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. THIS LINE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA. WHILE THIS LINE IS LIKELY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION
AT ITS BASE...VERY LITTLE IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WITHOUT
EVAPORATING AS IT FALLS THROUGH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. AS OF 9
AM MST...ONLY TWO YAVAPAI COUNTY GAGES HAVE REPORTED
PRECIPITATION...SO I THINK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE WARRANTED. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING. WITH THAT SAID...GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE
STRONGEST SHOWERS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /323 AM MST/...
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD HELPING BRING A DRY AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
EAST INTO NEW MEXICO...HELPING BRING A MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
BACK INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW
ROCK SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. LOOK FOR SCT-BKN CLOUD
BASES AOA 13 KFT MSL AND WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z. SFC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE UNTIL
02Z NEAR STRONGER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
SW-W 5-15 KTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/TC
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF