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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171609
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
909 AM MST THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A RETURN OF FAIR WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM MAY CAUSE A ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TODAY WILL SUPPRESS ACTIVITY AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. THE FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL CAUSE
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /230 AM MST/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FOR SHOWERS...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL.

SUNDAY ONWARD...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA FROM LATE
ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MAIN IMPACT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WITH A COOLER AIR
MASS...A DROP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON BREEZES.
ON FRIDAY...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST BRINGING HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. WETTING RAIN IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STRONGER WINDS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......AT
FIRE WEATHER...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF