Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 242201

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
301 PM MST SAT SEP 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and mild conditions to persist through
Sunday, with breezy northeast winds becoming locally gusty
tonight and tomorrow. Starting Monday, low pressure moving in
from Mexico will bring in more moisture resulting in a chance for
showers and thunderstorms for much of next week.


A pleasant fall afternoon is well underway in northern Arizona,
with a few northeasterly breezes but other than that clear skies
and mild temperatures. As the main part of the trough that brought
us our cold front on Thursday night/Friday continues to move into
the northern Plains tomorrow, the southern portion of the trough
is forecast to close off tonight and drift southwestward back
toward Baja. Arizona will be influenced by the easterly winds on
the north side of this low pressure center through the early part
of next week. The low is forecast to get picked up in the
prevailing southwesterly flow around Tuesday and drift slowly
northward across Arizona as it fills.

Weather-wise, northern Arizona will experience breezy to locally
gusty winds from tonight through Monday, with the direction
gradually veering from northeast to east as the low changes
position. Precip chances should remain minimal until Monday, when
the NAEFS ensemble mean shows a corridor of moisture transport
pushing into southern Arizona. The greatest precip chances Monday
will be over the eastern Rim/White Mountains. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms overspread a larger portion of northern Arizona
on Tuesday and Wednesday as the low moves toward and over the

Precip chances will decrease somewhat following Wednesday and
high temperatures are expected to return to near or slightly above
average values as the area is in southwest flow between a ridge
over Texas and a trough over the Pacific Northwest. A couple of
weak short-wave troughs are depicted by the 12Z GFS as moving
through the southwest flow in the Friday-Saturday time frame,
though, so precipitation and some brief cooling cannot be ruled


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions are expected to
persist throughout the next twenty-four hours. Breezy to locally
gusty northeast winds overnight tonight are expected to become
more widespread during the daylight hours on Sunday, especially
near and southwest of a KGCN-KFLG-KSOW line. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.






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