Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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533
FXUS65 KFGZ 310421
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
921 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE STATE TONIGHT NEAR THE UTAH BORDER. A COLD
STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND FALLING SNOW LEVELS.
ANTICIPATE DANGEROUS WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. CLEARING WILL ENSUE FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...NO MAJOR FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.
WE ARE STILL SEEING SOME LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ON
THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS NEAR DONEY PARK AND
NORTHEAST OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NEAR SPRINGERVILLE. THESE LOCAL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS HAVE
DECREASED BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
THIS EVENING WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS FAR
NORTHWESTERN COCONINO COUNTY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN THIS
AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /347 PM MST/... ANOTHER MILD DAY HAS DEVELOPED
TODAY...THOUGH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE FREQUENTLY GUSTED IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. MAIN STORY
CONTINUES TO BE THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND ABOVE
4000 FEET FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE REGION. FOR EXPECTED AMOUNTS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION...PLEASE
CONSULT THE POINT-AND-CLICK FORECAST VIA OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF OR OUR WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS AND GRAPHICS.
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

VERY COLD BUT DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS ALSO GRADUALLY GETTING WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE....
LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS NORTHEAST OF TERRAIN FEATURES
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS SW 10-20 KTS GUSTING 25 KTS OVERNIGHT.
SHRA/SHSN INCREASING FROM KGCN NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SNOW LEVELS FROM 7000-7500 FT MSL.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN WITH SNOW LEVELS FROM 6500-7500 FT MSL
FROM KRQE-KFLG-KPRC WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED MVFR/IFR. SW WINDS 15-25 KTS GUSTING 30-35 KTS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN WIDESPREAD SHRA/SHSN BY 00Z MONDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY
TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ008-009-018.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
AZZ007-011-015>017-039.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
AZZ004-006.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/KD
AVIATION...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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