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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 211036
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR TODAY...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. ON
THURSDAY...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER BUT AN ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL BRING LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND A BIT COLDER CONDITIONS.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORT-WAVE WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX WILL MOVE
ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY. A DECENT AREA OF SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION
BETWEEN THE JET MAX AND TROUGH AXIS WILL WORK ON LIMITED MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SNOW LEVELS
FALLING TO 6000-6500 FEET. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF TRACE TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD.
THE GENERAL PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.

ON THURSDAY...A SECONDARY IMPULSE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL BE TO DRIVE A COLD
POLAR AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. IN ADDITION, A STRONG
COUPLET OF RISING/SINKING MOTION BETWEEN NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA WILL
RESULT IN STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT. THE RESULT, EXPECT A COLD
AND BREEZY TO WINDY DAY. FAVORED AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM WILL SEE WIND GUST OF 25-35 MPH WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS
THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS SEEING GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD
OVER THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. LOOK FOR DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
A CUT-OFF LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT DEEP MOISTURE OF TROPICAL ORIGINS WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
TOWARD ARIZONA BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE PERSISTENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY. CEILINGS TO LOWER TO AT OR ABV 10 KFT MSL BY 18Z WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THRU THE
DAY. EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS
6000-6500 FT. AFT 00Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR XCP VCNTY WHITE
MTNS WHERE SHOWER THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH 12Z THU. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF