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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 212225
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
325 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE UTAH BORDER ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE FROM PAYSON TO WINDOW ROCK. DRY WEATHER
RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MAY RENEW
SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTING THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN JET STREAM CIRRUS ALONG
THE AZ UT BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE 30-40 MPH
WILL PERSIST IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNSET.

PROGS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG A LINE
FROM ROUGHLY WINDOW ROCK THROUGH THE SOUTH RIM. EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH SW GUSTS IN
THE 30-40 MPH IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER MOVES INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION...MOISTURE AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY...WITH THE DEEPEST SATURATION (TO -27C)
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY MORNING AND A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR HEAVY SNOW IS IN EFFECT FOR THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND BLACK MESA
AREAS FROM 5 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 5 PM MONDAY. RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS COCONINO AND FAR NORTHERN YAVAPAI
COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS COCONINO
AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN HALVES OF NAVAJO AND
APACHE COUNTIES. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
EAST OF HAPPY JACK. BY SUNRISE MONDAY...SNOW LEVELS TO RANGE FROM
3700 FEET AROUND PAGE TO 7000 IN FLAGSTAFF AND 8000 FEET IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE BULK OF PRECIP ACCUMULATION WITH THIS EVENT
LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOW ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
AROUND FLAGSTAFF AND THE PAGE AREAS FOR MONDAY...STAY TUNED.

THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW SHOULD BEGIN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...LIQUID
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD MUCH LESS THAN MONDAY. PROGS DO HAVE A DRY
PUNCH OF AIR INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE LOWERED TO 10% THERE. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY THEN RAPID CLEARING FROM NW
TO SE....THOUGH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE WHITE MTNS
TUESDAY EVENING.

DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE RIDGE REMAINS PARKED WELL OFF THE
WEST COAST...WITH ARIZONA IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVING INTO THE STATE ON THIS NORTHWEST
FLOW...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND DEPTH OF
THESE SHORTWAVES. FOR NOW...WE KEPT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW EACH DAY FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRELIMINARY SNOW LEVELS ARE IN THE
5000-6000 FOOT RANGE. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GIVE MORE DETAILS IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20KT WITH
GUSTS 25-35KT MOST AREAS THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING...THEN
REDEVELOPING AFTER 16Z SUNDAY. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AFTER
12Z ALONG/NORTH OF A KGCN-K0V7 LINE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500-6500 FEET IN THAT
AREA...LOWEST ALONG THE UT BORDER. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCALIZED IFR IN PRECIPITATION. FARTHER SOUTH...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS 12Z-00Z AND LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM THOUGH THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT.  AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 PM MONDAY FOR AZ ZONES
004-039. (KAIBAB PLATEAU AND BLACK MESA)

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF