Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 212222
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA THROUGH THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
FROM ABOUT TUESDAY ONWARD...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&
.DISCUSSION...A LONG WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST
OF THE WEST COAST OF THE USA AND BAJA WILL ROTATE SEVERAL SHORTER
WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN USA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A
MINOR WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT WITH LOW POPS.
A STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER POPS. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A PRESCOTT TO KAYENTA LINE WITH A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LAST WAVE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE CENTERED AHEAD AND WITH EACH
WAVE. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SHOWERS ANY TIME BETWEEN NOW AND
EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

BY TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA
ALONG/NORTH OF A SELIGMAN-FLAGSTAFF-GREER LINE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA AFTER 15Z FRI NW OF A
KPRC-KFLG-KPGA LINE. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS S-SW15-25KT GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH
02Z...STRONGEST IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. GUSTY SW WINDS
REDEVELOP AFTER 16Z FRIDAY...AGAIN STRONGEST ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY ALONG WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWESTWARD. WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES WHERE
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. &&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...........MAS
AVIATION.........JJ
FIRE WEATHER.....DL


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