Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271630
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY FROM FLAGSTAFF
SOUTHEASTWARD. ON SUNDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY INTO THE WORK WEEK AS DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEW POINTS ARE UP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE AND GPS DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW)
REVEALS THE BIGGEST INCREASES HAVE OCCURRED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
SOUTH. OVER 1 INCH OF PW IS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. HI-RES MODELS FOR TODAY
GENERALLY INDICATE CONVECTION FIRST INITIATING IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM REGIONS, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER INITIATING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN
NORTHERN GILA AND THEN YAVAPAI COUNTY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE, MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
EVEN WITH A MOISTENED BOUNDARY LAYER, THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS, WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.

MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE POP FORECAST FOR TODAY TO INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN
GILA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. NO OTHER UPDATES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /325 AM MST/...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
IN MOST LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 4000 FEET IN THE GRAND CANYON.
EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE...MAINLY FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU TO FLAGSTAFF
AND POINTS SOUTHEASTWARD.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY
AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT TO A MORE FAVORABLE
ORIENTATION. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA EACH DAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
ALONG WITH SOME HAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. SCATTERED
TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVENING EAST OF A KPAN TO KRQE LINE WITH
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. STORMS/DUST MAY MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING FROM THE PHOENIX AREA.
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA EACH AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ006.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/CLM/KD
AVIATION...AT
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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