Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

FXUS65 KFGZ 202140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
240 PM MST Thu Oct 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A high pressure system will move across the desert
southwest through Saturday. Expect high temperatures to be around 10
degrees above seasonal normals through the weekend. A low
pressure system moving onto the West Coast on Sunday will draw increasing
moisture into Arizona from the south. A few showers may start on
Sunday, but chances for rainfall peak on Monday. Expect clearing
from west to east on Tuesday with a return to dry weather.


Made few changes to the forecast from tonight through sunrise
Sunday. Look for fair weather with warm days with max temps around
10 degrees above normal. This due to a high pressure ridge aloft
that will move across the desert southwest. Expect Light sfc
winds Friday with the passage of the ridge axis aloft. Winds aloft
and at the surface become S-SW on Saturday as the shifts east and
a deep Pacific low moves into the Pacific northwest.

Sunday through Tuesday - Progs continue to show a deep southerly
fetch developing and bringing increasing moisture from the
subtropics. Models are indicating mid level moisture and the
possibility of some shallow afternoon convection now as early as
Sunday afternoon and we added a slight chance of showers to areas
south and west of a South Rim to Show Low line. Models continue
to show the best day for accumulating precip from showers and
thunderstorms is Monday. Shower activity should clear from west
to east on Tuesday as westerly flow aloft returns.

Wednesday and Thursday - Expect dry weather as warm high pressure
aloft sets up again.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z forecast...VFR conditions under mostly
clear skies to persist over the next 24 hrs. The exception being
areas near planned burning activity which could see lowered
VIS/CIG due to smoke. Breezy NE-E winds 10-15 kt this evening
becoming light and variable overnight through Friday. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.