Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 242323

523 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

00Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Light westerly winds continue through
midnight then veer to the north as a cold front enters the region
early Sunday. Wind speeds will generally remain around 10kt for much
of the morning then decrease Sunday afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015/

It has turned out to be a beautiful day with mostly clear skies
and temperatures around normal. Northwesterly upper flow will
bring a cold front into the area tomorrow, but there will be
little if any cold air behind it so expect temperatures to be much
like today. An upper ridge will move across west Texas Monday and
break down leaving westerly upper flow Tuesday and Wednesday
sending temperatures above normal. A weak trough Monday night will
only bring a slight chance for rain showers for areas west of the
Pecos River.

The GFS has been very consistent and continues to show a good
chance for precipitation late next week. The ECMWF is trending
towards the GFS and now all models are developing an upper level
low near the Baja of Mexico with a highly amplified ridge laying
over the Pacific Northwest. This splits the jet into two streams
but a particularly strong southern stream will advect moisture out
of the Pacific and into New Mexico and Texas. Precipitation would
develop Thursday night and continue through the weekend. The GFS
remains most aggressive with QPF amounts though all models are
showing the areal coverage to be extensive. It should be noted
that PoPs are quite high for Day 6/7 in the forecast with 40-50
percent across most of the region.

The northern stream jet will bring a cold front on Thursday and
modestly cooler temperatures. Most of the cooling may actually
come from cloud cover and precipitation thus the precipitation
type will be rain. The upper low only slowly moves east across
northern Mexico so southwest flow ahead of the low will provide
warm air advection and keep the p-type rain through Saturday and
the end of the forecast period. Sunday (just outside of this
forecast), another front may arrive with colder air and the chance
for the rain to change to a wintry precip type so this system will
need to be closely monitored.







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