Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
FXUS64 KMAF 061719
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
18Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Currently, scattered showers
across southeast NM continue to dissipate. Could see additional
development later this afternoon but will not include in the TAF
attm. Southeasterly winds continue today...higher speeds (with
occasional gusts) through this evening at MAF and FST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014/
A typical weather pattern is expected this week as high pressure
dominates. An upper ridge over the four corners region will slowly
migrate east into the central plains. Subsidence will increase but
so will deep easterly flow, increasing moisture and preventing a
significant increase in temperatures. The subsidence will suppress
convection in all areas except the mountains where heating in the
higher elevations will allow for isolated storms to develop.
Models are in agreement that a disturbance in the Bay of Campeche
will drift north early this week then move inland up the Rio
Grande as the high pressure center shifts over the southern
plains. This could provide a better chance for rain late in the
week as the instability axis moves over the CWA and PWATs
increase. Will not increase PoPs at this time as there is
considerable uncertainty in the path and strength of this feature.