Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 010513
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1113 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vis
likely affecting all terminals through Sunday morning as well as
FZFG affecting some locations through morning. Generally have
IFR/LIFR flight conditions across the board tonight with light
easterly winds in place. Low level moisture will remain in place
through morning with deteriorating cig/vis likely over the next
several hours. Could see vis as low as 1/4SM at times, particularly
at HOB and MAF. Dense fog with freezing temps in place in addition
to some possible -FZDZ will likely result in icing problems for both
planes and runways overnight. Have included mention of FZFG at HOB
and MAF while other terminals may remain too warm. Otherwise,
conditions are finally expected to improve to VFR Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

UPDATE...
We have updated the forecast to extend WSW for Lea County and most
the PB, except the west.

DISCUSSION...
Models are struggling hard with the cold shallow airmass and are
generally way too way warm, at least in most of the areas where
the advisory has been extended. 00Z MAF sounding indicates
saturated conditions in cold air thru 85h, with abrupt drying
above 85h. Vsby has been decreasing since 3 PM at MAF and Andrews
observation is now reporting FZDZ/FZFG with vsby 1/2SM.
Accordingly so, based mainly on persistence and short-term trends, we
decided to extended winter wx advisory in said areas.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vis
likely affecting all terminals through much of the TAF period and
possible -FZDZ/FZFG through the morning hours. Generally have
IFR/LIFR flight conditions at all but INK and FST where conditions
have briefly improved to MVFR over the last hour or two. INK/FST
will return to IFR/LIFR respectively by 03-04Z. Low level moisture
will remain in place now through much of Sunday morning with
deteriorating cig/vis overnight. May have been too conservative with
vis and some places could see <1/2SM at times early Sunday morning.
Regardless, dense fog with freezing temps in place in addition to
some possible -FZDZ could result in icing problems for both planes
and runways overnight. For now, will keep mention of freezing precip
out of the TAF and amend if needed. Otherwise, conditions are
finally expected to improve to VFR Sunday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Cold air, low clouds and areas of freezing drizzle and freezing
fog are stubbornly hanging in across mainly portions of the plains
of southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Expecting the lower clouds
to continue tonight in these areas with slowly rising temperatures
due to the surface high slowly pushing off to the east. With
residual snow cover, it still appears that temperatures will stay
at or below freezing across the extreme western low rolling plains
and extreme eastern Permian Basin. In addition forecast soundings
are indicating that moisture should remain deep enough for areas
of freezing drizzle to continue. Will continue the Winter Weather
Advisory overnight through mid Sunday morning for the aforementioned
area as a result. Further west across the central and western
Permian Basin and Lea county New Mexico temperatures will either
rise above freezing and or the moisture depth will not be enough
for significant ice accumulations. For these areas will expire the
Winter Weather Advisory at 6 pm cst, but issue a Special Weather
Statement for overnight and mention the lighter accumulations
expected.

For Sunday will lower high temperatures considerably especially
across the plains based on the new NAM and ECMWF guidance
indicating another surge of cooler air invading from the northeast.
The cooler air will continue to push southwest into the forecast
area Sunday night and Monday. Precipitation chances will increase
again as the upper level flow backs ahead of the next Pacific
system with isentropic lift developing. Surface temperatures
may be cold enough to support a chance of freezing rain
Sunday night and early Monday across the northern Permian Basin
and Lea county New Mexico. By Monday afternoon and Monday night
temperatures should be warm enough for all liquid across west
Texas and southeast New Mexico.

Precipitation chances will continue across a good chunk of
the forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday as the aforementioned
system approaches. Yet another surge of colder air is expected
by Wednesday with some light snow possible. The precipitation
could continue (some snow) into Thursday if the slower ECMWF is
correct.

Beyond next Thursday guidance handles the upper level low
differently so kept dry for now with slowly moderating
temperatures.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM MST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Reagan...
     Scurry.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Martin...Midland...Upton.


&&

$$

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