Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 012134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
434 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015


See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.



VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a cu field late morning/early afternoon invof
KFST/KPEQ, w/bases 4.5-6 kft agl.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 217 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/


After a hot afternoon today, expect slightly cooler conditions to
arrive by the weekend. The upper ridge bringing the warm
temperatures and dry weather will shift east into the Plains and
weaken over the next few days. Meanwhile, a storm system will carve
out a trough across the Western U.S. By the weekend, this trough
will move close enough to the area to generate southwesterly mid
level flow. This will lead to increasing moisture and lift over SE
NM and W TX by Saturday. Will keep rain chances minimal for now
as there doesn`t appear to be any real focus. This will need to be
watched though as moisture from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone
Marty in the Pacific possibly gets caught up in the upper flow.
If this occurs, changes to the forecast may be needed, including higher
PoPs and lower temperatures.

A cold front will move south across the Southern Plains this
weekend, but looks to weaken significantly by the time it arrives in
our area. Cooling with the front will be limited and will mostly be
due to clouds and precipitation. Long range models still diverge
with respect to the upper air pattern next week so haven`t made
any significant changes to the extended.





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