Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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407
FXUS64 KMAF 240506
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1206 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There is a chance of thunderstorms through the period with the
best chances Monday afternoon. Not sure if storms will impact the
terminals yet so left out of the forecast for now. Outside of
thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Winds will mostly be light out of the south.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An MCV (Meso Convective Vortex) spawned from convection yesterday
remains over the Permian Basin today and is helping to create more
showers and storms this afternoon. However abundant cloud cover
also remains from yesterday keeping temps much cooler than
forecast, partially countering the effects of the MCV and
preventing a more widespread outbreak of rainfall this afternoon.
Once again storm motion is slow so the main threat will be
locally heavy rain and flash flooding with a lesser secondary
threat of brief strong winds under any collapsing storm cores.
There should be fewer clouds tomorrow allowing for greater
heating, and combined with a weak upper low slowly migrating north
from the Big Bend will again provide rain chances for one more
day.

Upper level high pressure then builds south into West Texas and
eastern New Mexico starting on Tuesday causing high temperatures
to edge back up to near the century mark. Recent rains may dampen
the warming trend by a couple of degrees and how hot locations get
by the end of the week will depend on how much additional
rainfall is received over the next 24 hours. The upper high hangs
around for only a couple of days before retreating back to the
west to the Four Corners Region leaving northerly upper flow
pushing a cold front into the South Plains. The front may or may
not reach the Permian Basin, but regardless models are showing
500mb heights dropping to around 588 dam, allowing us to cool back
down slightly next weekend and early next week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  97  75  99 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       70  96  73  98 /  20  20  10  10
Dryden                         74 101  76  98 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  71  96  72  96 /  10  10   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 66  88  68  88 /  30  30  20  30
Hobbs                          68  93  70  95 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          63  89  64  89 /  20  20  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           73  97  75  98 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         73  96  74  98 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           72  99  74  99 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/



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