Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 121707
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1107 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light south winds
will become easterly after 00Z as a weak cold front moves through
the area.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows a deep upper-lvl trough moving thru the MS Valley,
leaving the wrn CONUS under NW flow aloft.  Closer to home, SKC
skies and light/variable winds have allowed overnight mins to plunge
below normal across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

Temps today will rise a little over yesterday`s as thicknesses
increase, and should level out this afternoon around normal.  This
warmup will be brief, however, as a cold front backdoors the region
overnight, taking temps Sat afternoon to below-normal, especially NE
zones.  Temps attempt to recover Sun/Mon, but remain just below-
normal.

During this time, a cutoff low is forecast to drop out of Ontario
and into the Great Lakes region, and will send a strong cold front
into the area late Monday afternoon.  The GFS develops a bit of rain
along this feature as it moves into the lwr Trans Pecos.  Temp
profiles and soundings suggest moisture will be shallow, but -RA may
transition to -FRZA in places Tue morning.  For now, we`re not going
to get to worked up about this, as QPFs are light, temps will
change, and not every model has this solution.

Tuesday should be the coldest day this forecast, w/afternoon highs
ranging from the mid 30s NE to the 50s along the Rio Grande.  A
gradual warmup rounds out the extended, w/temps back well-abv normal
by Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  25  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       63  33  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         60  32  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  65  33  50  32 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 57  35  47  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          60  25  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  29  56  25 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           59  27  47  30 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         60  27  47  30 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           64  30  50  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10


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