Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 130903
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
403 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
In the upper levels a shortwave trough will move over the area today
with a stronger trough swinging across NM and TX on Monday.  This
will push a strong front through the area late tonight and bring a
significant change in wx to W TX and SE NM.  After that an upper ridge
builds in from the west for a few days before another upper trough
swings across the region Thursday.

At the surface will have a strong cold front blow through the area
tonight bringing unseasonably cold temperatures to the region.  Some
locations along and north of the Pecos River may see a light freeze
Tuesday morning.  Will issue an SPS discussing possible late season
freeze.  Another cold front blows through the area Thursday but will
not be as strong.

Temperatures... overnight temperatures have been unusually high as
wind and clouds have not allowed temps to drop.  Will have another
day of above normal highs today with readings in the 80s and lower
90s.  The front tonight will drive lows into the 40s with a few 30s
north.  Monday will be much cooler with highs only in the 50s north
and 60s south.  The front will have strong cold air advection with
it.  Overnight will have clearing skies along with the wind becoming
light.  This will result in Tuesday being the coldest morning in
nearly a month with lows in the 30s and some locations falling to
near freezing or below.  Readings Tuesday warm back into the 60s and
70s with temperatures continuing to climb the next few days.

WIND... very gusty winds continued into the night time hours due to
a tight pressure gradient from a surface low over the panhandle with
a trough extending southward across the area.  Also had some high
based showers moving over the area producing virga and locally
increased wind gusts.  Will have a west to southwest wind today
across the area... may increase above 30 mph across parts of the
west.  Have a Wind advisory for Culberson... Reeves... and Jeff
Davis counties today.  Have issued a High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupes Mountains today and extended it through tomorrow replacing
the High Wind Watch.  When the front hits tonight a strong north
wind will spread southward across the area.  Models show the front
has a very tight packing of isobars behind it indicating a very
tight pressure gradient.  Expect the front to be moving into the
northern CWA around midnight and quickly push to the Rio Grand by
12z Monday.  Have issued a Wind Advisory tonight for most locations
north of the Pecos River.  Expect blowing dust over most of the
area tonight.  The wind comes back around to the south Tuesday as a
warm up begins. Another cold front comes through Thursday but will
not be as strong as the one tonight.

Rain... may have some lingering high based showers today over the
south but with no measurable rain expected will leave mention out
of the forecast.  Have a dry forecast through next weekend although
long range guidance/qpf does try to develop some precip next
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty westerly winds will continue to push very dry air across
the region today. As the pressure gradient associated with a surface
low (located over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles as of 08z)
tightens mid-morning, 20 ft wind speeds will increase to around
20-30 MPH. Decreasing cloud cover today will also allow stronger
wind speeds to mix to the surface, with stronger gusts up to 35 MPH
possible. Minimum RHs will fall to less than 10 percent today west
of a dry line that will mix well east of the forecast area by late
afternoon (roughly to a Breckenridge-San Angelo-Langtry line). A Red
Flag Warning is in effect for all of West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico through 12 AM CDT/11 PM MDT. A strong cold front will push
south across the area late tonight and mitigate fire weather
concerns through the beginning of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 86  41  54  31  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              87  41  54  32  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                87  43  57  34  /   0  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  92  54  64  40  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           91  45  58  36  /  10   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  38  49  34  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   84  39  52  29  /   0  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   79  40  56  24  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    88  42  55  32  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  88  42  56  34  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    90  44  60  32  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     WIND ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM MDT Monday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM this morning to Noon MDT Monday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning to
     Midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Presidio Valley...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM this morning to Noon MDT Monday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.


&&

$$

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