Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 271938
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
238 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery earlier this morning showed an eastward moving low
pressure center over Terrell County.  Associated widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms are still lingering over the Permian
Basin.  Expectations are that this activity will continue through
sunset before finally dissipating.

An upper level storm system located over central California will
make its way into the central Rockies by Monday.  The approach of
this system with result in associated lee trough development from
eastern Co. into Far West Texas by Monday afternoon.  This surface
trough will serve as the focus of isolated thunderstorm development
over the western third of the County Warning Area on Monday and over
portions of the Permian Basin Tuesday and Wednesday.

Model CAPE values near 1000 J/kg along with 0-6 km bulk shear values
around 30 are forecast Tuesday afternoon over the northern
portions of the Permian Basin and into the Rolling Plains. In
edition, the right entrance region of the 250 MB jet is over that
area as well. I thought that was enough to warrant a slight
increase in Tuesday afternoon thunderstorm chances over that area.
It is not inconceivable that we could see an isolated severe thunderstorm
in this general area on Tuesday.

As the upper storm system slides east, so goes the surface trough
and our rain chances.  A cold front moving through the area Thursday
should be a dry one, with drier and cooler air moving into the area
behind it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 59  79  62  83  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              62  82  64  85  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                60  81  60  85  /  10  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  65  86  66  89  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           62  85  64  88  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  76  59  80  /  10  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                   59  78  60  80  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   52  81  54  83  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    61  81  62  85  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  61  81  64  85  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    63  86  64  89  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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