Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 192313
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
613 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
decrease a little and shift towards the north this evening. Once
the northerly wind shift takes place, winds will become gusty out
of the north to northeast through 12z to 15z Saturday. Winds are
expected to decrease by 18z and shift towards the east and
southeast during the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 204 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Dryline has pushed e of MAF with a cold front dropping s thru the
S Plains and a surface low is INVOF nrn CWFA, thus a triple pt is
near the n-ne CWFA. Also an outflow boundary from earlier
convection is INVOF central Glasscock-w Howard-Dawson Co.. After
this mornings convection across the e-ne CWFA the atmosphere is
attempting to recover and there is a brief window for severe
storms e of line from Fluvanna-Big Lake this PM/early evening.
Post-frontal airmass is dry/more stable. FROPA will occur along
I-20 around 03Z and scenario for precip is for mstr to pool along
ern extent of frontal boundary and back build into far se CWFA and
Lower Trans Pecos after 06Z. Sensible wx Sat AM will include
brief windy conditions across the PB and much cooler conditions.
NE winds thru the day and some clouds will keep high temps below
normal as well, any precip chances will be confined to the Lower
Trans Pecos. The chance for precip will increase Sun AM-PM as
return se low level flow develops ahead of damping shrtwv trof.
Again clouds and cool se winds will keep temps below normal Sun
PM. Atmosphere modifies into Mon PM with NW flow aloft and low
probability PoPs will be warranted. A front in the Panhandle Mon
night and the NW flow aloft does seem somewhat favorable for
precip to form along front, arriving in PB/SE NM around 12Z Tue
AM. This will re-enforce below normal temps and focus best chance
of tstms across the Trans Pecos INVOF front and where upslope is
maximized. Into Wed AM drier post-frontal airmass moves in with
continued coolish temps. Noticeably warmer/drier Thur/Fri.

HYDROLOGY...
Colorado River at Colorado City has responded to runoff from heavy
rain this AM and has risen to above action stage (12ft). Also Beals
Creek in SW Mitchell Co has rapidly risen to 12ft. In the absence
of additional heavy rain these rises are expected to give way to
falls this evening has this water eventually goes into Lake Spence
over the next day or so.

FIRE WEATHER...
Mostly low end RF wx across the warned area as Carlsbad has just
mixed out and lowest RHs in the GDP Mtns are confined to the
lowest elevations. RFW continues until 8 pm MDT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     55  78  58  81 /  20  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       51  80  53  79 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                         69  82  67  78 /  20  20  30  40
Fort Stockton                  57  81  58  77 /  10  10  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 48  74  52  71 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                          46  78  50  78 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          47  78  51  75 /   0   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           55  80  56  80 /  10  10  10  20
Odessa                         54  80  58  79 /  10   0  10  20
Wink                           55  82  60  80 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/



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