Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 230536
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1236 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the early cancellation of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #
256 and for the 06Z aviation discussion, which can be found below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms continue to move east out of the area this evening,
and without expectation of additional development to the west, the
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled. Additional storms
are possible late tonight/early Tuesday morning as a cold front
pushes into the area, however, these storms are not expected to be
severe.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions have returned as showers and thunderstorms
have moved to the east. However, a cold front will move into the
area late tonight, which could bring another round of
precipitation to area terminals. While thunderstorms will be
possible with the front, probability is too low to include mention
at this time, thus have gone with TEMPO -RA mention and will
monitor for -TSRA and amend as needed. In the wake of the front,
winds will shift to the north and become gusty, and MVFR
conditions will return areawide. Periods of IFR ceilings are
possible through the morning, with a gradual improvement to VFR
expected areawide after 04/19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1034 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

UPDATE...

Update to cancel most of Severe Thunderstorm Watch # 256.

DISCUSSION...

A line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward over the
eastern Permian Basin, and expect the storms could move out of the
area around 23/06Z.  Until then, there appears to be enough
instability for a few of these storms to produce strong winds or
hail.  Therefore, will leave the eastern most counties in Severe
Thunderstorm Watch number 256, but trim the western counties
where storms have already past through, and there is little
expectation of redevelopment.  A cold front will move into the
area late tonight with more showers and storms possible along and
behind it.  Do not think there will be any more severe storms at
that time.  An update will follow shortly for these changes.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 548 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Expect thunderstorms to become more widespread through 23/00Z, so have
included a mention of TSRA in all area terminals.  Gusty and
variable winds could accompany any of the storms, in addition to
hail.  Think thunderstorms could be east of all area terminals by
23/04Z too.  A cold front will move south into the area late
tonight with gusty north winds behind it.  Ceilings will lower to
MVFR behind the front for a few hours, and could dip to IFR.
Expect VFR conditions areawide after 23/17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 155 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

Water vapor depicts will a defined a shrtwv trof INVOF nrn NM
tracking se within NW flow aloft with trof axis extending sw
across NM. As lift assocd with shrtwv trof moves se into ern NM/W
TX it will encounter surface dwpnts around 55. Lift will be
modulated by mid level LR`s 7h-5h of 8-8.5 LR`s and MLCAPES of
1000-1500 J/KG result. A low level thermal/moisture gradient will
develop across ern NM too. This is a good pattern for tstms (MCS)
to develop in, bulk shear is forecast to be over 50kts and severe
storms are expected. 0-1km and 0-3km SRH do depict 300 m2/s2 or so
along the outflow, but LCLs are high, thus a non-zero probability
of a tornado. NAM12 continues to have the QPF max across the e
and GFS a little farther w. Confidence is high that severe storms
will come out somewhere between INK-SNK. There could even be 2
separate areas of storms, one that initiates in far SE NM or W PB
and another off to the nw initiating in ern NM or the wrn S Plain.
The forecast already has high PoPs in and will probably not make
too much change. Recent heavy rainfall across
Mitchell/Scurry/Howard Counties does raise concern for at least
localized flash flooding and responses along Colorado River and
tributaries. A cold front will follow Tue AM and models are in
agreement that post-frontal precip will develop. It will be
noticeably cooler Tue in wake of the front, but clouds will likely
break out late. Thereafter a modest warm-up on Wed followed by a
strong trend from the lower left to upper right. 85h temps 31C and
downslope wind will easily push temps into the U90s-L100s.
Dryline will probably hang up across far srn CWFA, may be storm in
Terrell Co.. A little cooler but still hot Fri-Sat with a
possible front on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  52  85  62 /  50  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       74  51  91  60 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         78  57  86  61 /  40  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  54  89  66 /  40  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 68  52  85  64 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          69  48  84  58 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                          75  48  88  55 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  53  85  62 /  40  10   0   0
Odessa                         71  53  85  63 /  40  10   0   0
Wink                           74  52  89  60 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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