Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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552
FXUS64 KMAF 180320
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
920 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/a few high clouds.
Westerly flow will back Saturday to SW, then SE return flow after
sunset.

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 823 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Latest obs show winds across the CWA have fallen below criteria,
so warnings/advisories have been allowed to expire. We`ll do a
quick update to remove warnings/advisories, and to update other
parameters as necessary based on latest obs and model data.
Updates out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CST Friday...Strong winds continue
along and west of the Pecos River.

Satl imagery indc that the upper low in Northeast Texas continues
to move northeast. As the low continues to pull away the winds
will diminish rapidly after sunset. All High Wind
Warnings/Advisories will be expiring early this evening.

Shortwave ridging ahead of a potent system moving into CA will
move across the Southern Plains on Saturday. This will bring
warmer temps and dry conditions.

The system moving onshore will weaken and elongate as it moves
through the Southern Rockies. Unidirectional flow will advect low
level moisture from the south into the eastern portions of the CWA
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. However...it appears
that the H7 and H85 flow will become southwest Sunday morning
advecting this moisture east. 12Z models and the 15Z SREF are
developing a dryline/Pacific front either in the extreme eastern
portions of the CWA or east of the CWA on Sunday. Have removed
most PoPs from Sunday`s fcst...except for slight chc in the
extreme east. As of now convective parameters are indc that the
strongest convection will be to the east of the CWA.

Ridging will build east into the Southern Plains Monday-Wednesday
leading to warm and dry weather for the CWA. A strong system
moving into the Pacific NW/Northern CA will move across the
Central Plains Thursday/Friday. This has the potential to bring
widespread strong winds to the CWA toward the end of next week.

Strobin

FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 5pm
mst/6pm cst for Southeast New Mexico and the Trans Pecos. RH
values have slowly been falling this afternoon as temperatures
rise and should go below 15 percent. Combine this with a gusty
west wind with 20ft wind speeds well above 20 mph and the result
will be critical fire weather conditions. Wind speeds will
decrease this evening ending the short term fire weather concerns.
Lower wind speeds expected tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     45  77  52  72 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       45  74  47  68 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         48  79  52  75 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  48  80  52  73 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 44  64  40  56 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          43  74  46  67 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          37  70  41  62 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           47  77  51  70 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         46  76  51  70 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           45  77  50  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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