Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 150508
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1208 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns at the moment with VFR conditions
persisting at all terminals. There is a small chance that FST, PEQ
and/or CNM could be impacted by a thunderstorm tonight. Did not
mention in TAFs due to very low uncertainty but will continue to
monitor and amend if needed. Otherwise, somewhat light and variable
winds overnight followed by SE winds 10-12kt with a few gusts Saturday.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the inverted upper trough has moved west out of the
Big Bend into Chihuahua, while a decaying MCV from last night
continues moving up the Pecos River.  This feature began diminishing
once it crossed the Rio Grande, but not before dumping over 4" of
rainfall in srn Terrell County, according to radar estimates.  This
extra moisture, along w/abundant cloud cover, has resulted in
afternoon temps coming in well-below normal, topping out in the 80s
for most of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

Although the inverted trough has moved off into Chihuahua, models
are slow to move it much further, keeping it around during the
weekend.  This will keep best chances of convection over the wrn
mtns. Saturday.  Sunday, an upper trough is forecast to pass north
of the upper ridge, weakening/flattening it and distributing rain
chances a little more evenly across the area.

Going into the work week, the upper ridge will remain flattened to
the north of the area, resulting in easterly upslope flow across the
area, and another inverted trough moving up the Rio grande Valley.
This will maintain good chances for convection in the west due to
upslope flow, and to the south due to the trough.  Long-range models
carry this scenario into the extended.

Out from under the upper ridge`s influence, temps will remain right
around normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  95  72  94 /  10  40  10  10
Carlsbad                       70  95  70  95 /  10  40  10  10
Dryden                         74  95  74  93 /  10  50  10  20
Fort Stockton                  71  94  71  93 /  10  40  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 67  86  67  88 /  30  40  10  20
Hobbs                          68  93  68  91 /  10  40  10   0
Marfa                          62  86  63  87 /  10  40  10  40
Midland Intl Airport           73  95  73  93 /  10  40  10  10
Odessa                         73  95  73  93 /  10  40  10  10
Wink                           71  96  71  96 /  10  40  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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