Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 230535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1135 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
By late evening, an area of light to moderate rain had moved through the
central Permian Basin, including the MAF terminal. Winds were generally
northeast behind a cold front that pushed through southeast New Mexico
and the Permian basin. This front will continue pushing south across
remaining terminal sites over the next few hours. Behind the front
winds will generally be 10 TO 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots,
though a few higher gusts are possible near showers. As colder air
pushes into the area, rain will become increasingly mixed with
snow and is expected to change over to snow at times across
southeast New Mexico and as far south as the central Permian
basin. VFR conditions will become MVFR as a rule due to lowering
ceilings, though IFR conditions are possible due to lowered
visibility in southeast New Mexico. Snow and rain will end by mid
to late morning across the area along with a return to VFR
conditions as drier air moves into the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for northern and central
Lea County, and Gaines and Dawson counties tonight/Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION...

Winds have yet to pick up in the Guadalupe or Davis Mountains this
evening, but think they still will later tonight as h7 winds of 40
to 50kt traverse the region at the base of a shortwave trough poised
to move overhead.  Of a little more concern is the potential for
snow moving southeastward across the area later tonight/Tuesday
morning.  The ground is pretty warm from recent above normal
temperatures, but cold air is spilling south through eastern New
Mexico and the Texas Panhandle behind a strong cold front.
A few thunderstorms have developed over southeast New Mexico and the
Permian Basin as lift increases ahead of a shortwave trough
translating southeastward over New Mexico, and in the upper levels
in the LFQ of a 140+kt h25 jet.

Expect precipitation to continue through the night, but as the front
pushes south, and the column cools aloft, precipitation will change
to snow north of Interstate 20.  The phase change will take place
over the northern half of Lea County, then into the northern Permian
Basin from 23/06Z to 23/09Z.  Since surface temperatures behind the
cold front are running a couple of degrees cooler than the latest
models, and the column will cool as precipitation changes to snow,
think we will see 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulate over northern and
central Lea County, and Gaines and Dawson counties late tonight/
Tuesday morning.  The warm ground may limit accumulation on roads,
but grassy and raised surfaces will likely have most of the
accumulation.  Some roads could become slick in the Advisory area
since temperatures may cool to freezing or below.

Expect adjacent counties to the Advisory area to see a rain/snow mix
through late tonight, or maybe just all snow by Tuesday morning.
Think precipitation will begin to decrease in intensity and areal
coverage though, and surface temperatures above freezing/warm ground
will prevent much accumulation.  Any adverse driving conditions in
the Advisory area should improve after 23/15Z as temperatures begin
to warm a little.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 AM MST Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM MST Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Dawson...Gaines.


&&

$$

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