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000
FXUS64 KMAF 021708
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1108 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty westerly winds all locations for the next few hours before
diminishing later this afternoon. There appears to be some dust
affecting CNM at the current ob, but should be short lived.
Otherwise VFR conditions through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2013/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows NW flow aloft over SE NM/West Texas tonight,
w/subtropical moisture continuing to stream over the region and
keeping a floor on overnight mins.  KMAF 00Z raob, sat loops, and
models suggest mid/high cloud won`t be quite as persistent/extensive
today as yesterday, so expect a big warmup into the 70s most
locations.  In addition, leeside trough development on the Front
Range will add a westerly downslope component to help things along.
However, past model performance data, forecast soundings, and H85
temp fields suggest staying towards the lower end of guidance.

Tuesday, flow aloft transitions to zonal as the next trough moves
out of the PacNW and towards the central Rockies.  The NAM persists
in setting up a mtn wave signature over the Guadalupes Tuesday.
Soundings at KGDP mix to 750mb Tuesday afternoon, where 45-50kt
Westerlies are forecast, and 725mb Wednesday, where flow increases
to 55-60kt as flow aloft tilts to SW.  Coupled w/an H7 pressure
gradient of 60m/200nm over the area, and high winds will still be
possible in the Guadalupes Tuesday thru Wednesday.  However, the GFS
isn`t as enthusiastic about this scenario persisting thru Wednesday,
so we`ve cut the difference, extending the watch thru Wednesday, and
will let the next shift make the call.  Regardless, adjacent areas
to the Guadalupes will likely need wind advisories for Tuesday.

The next big question of/this forecast is the timing of the cold
front.  The GFS brings it thru KMAF at around 12Z Wednesday, then
hangs it up diurnally mid-CWA during the afternoon.  Next up is the
NAM, which retards the front diurnally over the South Plains
Wednesday, then powers it thru KMAF at around 09Z Thursday.  The
ECMWF acts similar, only it lags the NAM by around 3 hours.
Bringing up the rear is the CMC, which doesn`t arrive at KMAF until
around 00Z Friday.  This far out, the solution likely lies in
between, and sooner rather than later, which would favor the timing
of the NAM.  Front should enhance lift ahead of the trough,
w/isentropic upglide resulting in a chance of precip beginning late
Wednesday night/Thursday morning, persisting thru Thursday night, and
tapering off W-E Friday as the trough scours the area.
W/differences in model timing of the arrival of the front/cold air,
it is still difficult to discern precip types where and when.  For
now, we`ll continue to keep it general, w/better chances of frozen
precip NE.  Also, we`ll keep QPF light attm.

Otherwise, post-frontal temps should bottom out Friday/Saturday, and
begin rebounding Sunday.  For consistency, we`ve stuck closer to
ECMWF temps.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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