Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 160306
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
906 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated to cancel the High Wind Warning, and also removed mention
of thunder for the rest of the evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Winds across the Guadalupe Mountains have dropped below High Wind
Warning criteria, and are expected to continue to diminish
overnight tonight. Thus, have gone ahead and canceled the High
Wind Warning that was in effect. Also, as the upper low
responsible for the active weather today continues to lift to the
northeast, the threat of thunderstorms has shifted well to the
east of the area this evening, thus ending the potential for
thunderstorms through tonight. A few showers remain possible,
particularly across northern portions of the forecast area, but
additional rain amounts will be light.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over SE NM, ushering in
dryer air as westerly sfc flow sets in. Skies are rapidly
improving behind the main band of convection, which has cleared
all terminals. Worst case scenario looks to be possible
redevelopment of MVFR cigs overnight KMAF/KCNM/KINK, and maybe IFR
KHOB. Bigger question will be fog development, and forecast
soundings develop it at KHOB, KINK, and KMAF near sunrise.
W/westerly flow, this will be questionable, and we`ll keep
visibilities at MVFR or better for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have an upper low swinging over the area today with a secondary
trough staying back to the west.  This next trough will dig
southward to Mexico before moving across the area later in the week
as a West Coast trough kicks it east.  This pattern should give us
another shot at some rainfall for the coming week.

Widespread cloud cover over the region will be on the decrease this
evening and Monday as a Pacific front pushes through.  At 19z the
upper low can be seen on satellite SE of ELP.  The Pacific front
should push west later today with a polar front moving down into the
region late Monday/early Tuesday.

The severe wx threat today should be ending this afternoon as a line
of storms over the region moves east.  Will leave low pops in
tonight mainly east for any lingering precip.  Do have some showers
in the forecast mid week with the next upper trough.  High wind
still possible in the Guadalupe Mtns this evening in the wake of the
upper low and Pacific front... will leave the warning in effect
through 11pm mst.

Temperatures have warmed today as the warm front lifts northward but
the northern counties remain cold in the 30s.  Looking for another
cold night with lows in the 30s over most of the region but Monday
temperatures should warm above normal as 60s return.  Tuesday will
be cooler but the rest of the week should be above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  61  36  55 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       37  59  34  52 /  20   0  10   0
Dryden                         44  69  46  59 /  20   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  40  65  38  57 /  10   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 34  50  34  48 /  20   0  10   0
Hobbs                          33  56  31  53 /  20   0  10   0
Marfa                          27  58  30  55 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           37  61  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         37  60  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Wink                           36  62  34  56 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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