Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 250921
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
421 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge over the mid Mississippi River Valley continues to
elongate reaching well into our area. This ridge will shrink as we
head through the upcoming weak as an upper trough digs into the
Rockies. This trough will really not begin to affect the area until
after Wednesday so expect hot temperatures to continue in the
short term.

Showers and even some strong thunderstorms formed yesterday along a
weak sfc trough and an instability axis. This sfc trough looks to be
farther north and west today so storms will be confined mainly to SE
NM, the western PB and the higher terrain of W TX. If this sfc
trough proves to be a little farther south this afternoon, PoPs will
need to be extended south into the PB. Very similar conditions are
expected Tuesday and Wednesday. The storms will be capable of very
gusty winds and even some small hail.

Large scale models have come into much better agreement regarding
the upcoming pattern change late in the week. The GFS has slowed
down the upper trough coming into the Pacific NW this morning. As
expected yesterday, this now aligns much better with the ECMWF and
CMC. The upper trough will help break down the ridge as it moves
into the Southern Plains by Friday. As it does so, the proximity of
the trough will provide lift and cooler mid level temps which should
produce showers and thunderstorms across most of the area. The best
chance for widespread precip appears to be Thursday and Friday. It
is still unclear whether a front will accompany the trough as most
of the models have a very weak front or not one at all. Nonetheless,
temperatures should cool off late week due to the cloud cover and
rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 97  71  96  70  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  74  99  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                98  71  96  71  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                 103  77 103  77  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           96  72  96  72  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  66  89  66  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   95  67  94  67  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   89  60  88  60  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    98  73  97  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  97  73  96  73  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   101  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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