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000
FXUS64 KMAF 170502
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1202 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Westerly downslope flow
under upper-lvl ridging will result in warm temperatures today,
but not close to convective temps. However, a high cloud or two is
possible NW. Winds will back a little after sunset as return flow
tries to get going.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 933 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/

UPDATE...
Heat Advisory for today has expired.

DISCUSSION...
There is the possibilty that heat advisory for Sat could be
upgraded to warning as a few places today got a little warmer
than forecast. Sat 85h temps will be as much as 1C warmer and
17C-18C at 7h! Today`s high temp at MAF was about 15F over the
34C 85h temp, 111 is possible tmw?

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 552 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will prevail
at all terminals. Some isolated convection south and east of FST
early this evening but don`t think any activity will affect any
terminals. similar to previous days, the dryline will back up to the
west tonight with elevated south winds at FST and MAF overnight.
Otherwise, light W/SW winds expected Saturday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 224 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current observations are showing widespread temperatures in the
upper 90s and low 100s this afternoon. Satellite shows very little
cloud cover in our CWA with only a few plumes of cumulus
developing in the Davis Mountains. Tomorrow will pretty much be a
carbon copy of today, if not slightly hotter so have continued the
Heat Advisory for this afternoon and issued another for tomorrow
afternoon and evening. We could even see a few records fall
tomorrow so it will definitely be very hot.

Several models have sped up the arrival of a cold front to early
Sunday morning as opposed to midday or early afternoon.
Northeasterly winds behind the front would hamper afternoon
heating and have reduced highs on Sunday closer to MET guidance.
The timing of this front will be critical however as just a few
hours of delay could bust forecast highs.

The relatively cooler highs will last into Monday before we see a
return of century highs on Tuesday. While highs will be hot again
late next week, they are expected to be a few degrees cooler than
what we will see today and tomorrow.

Have kept rain chances out of the forecast the next seven days,
though with the upper high center remaining stationary near the
Four Corners Region, cannot rule out isolated afternoon/early
evening showers/storms developing due to intense heating.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    105  75 107  76 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      108  67 110  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                        106  73 108  74 /  20   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                 109  73 110  73 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                100  71  97  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                         106  66 108  67 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                         101  62 100  62 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport          106  74 108  74 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                        106  74 108  74 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                          110  68 111  69 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
     Saturday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

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