Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241658
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1058 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail over all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas terminals through Christmas Day.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2014/

As of 4:30 AM CST Wednesday...Clear to partly cloudy skies are
the rule this morning across the CWA with cold temps.

Ridging will move into the Plains ahead of a trof moving into the
Pacific NW. Temps will begin to moderate slightly this aftn...and
take a more pronounced jump on Christmas Day as the flow becomes
southwest/downslope off the Rockies. Temps will remain above
normal on Friday with the downslope flow.

The trof will split as it moves out of the Rockies. The southern
portion of the trof will move over the state over the weekend.
Models have had a difficult time with the strength and the amount
of moisture this system will have to work with. As of now...it
looks like a cold front will struggle its way across the CWA
Friday night through Sat night. Due to the uncertainty and model
differences have gone with slight chc pops at most for this
period. Looks like there could be a rain/snow mix in the north
Friday night and Saturday...with a slight chc of snow showers Sat
night. At this time it does not appear that any snow that does
fall will be significant but we will of course be monitoring the
situation. Northwest flow Sunday and Monday will keep the CWA dry
with temps a little below normal.

Looks like the first real Arctic outbreak of the winter will
affect the CWA around Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. A shortwave
will drop south out of the Canadian Northwest Territories on
Sunday and deepen as it moves south and cuts off in the Desert
Southwest on Wednesday. Models have been consistent in bringing a
strong cold front thru the CWA Tuesday with very cold air behind
this (H85 temps of -15C over Midland Wednesday morning). What they
haven`t been consistent with is whether there will be any...or how
much snow this system will bring. As we get closer we will have a
better idea but this does bear watching for the end of 2014.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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