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000
FXUS64 KMAF 110849
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
349 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY, AND
STAY HERE WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF
DRY AND HOT WEATHER.  WE WILL NOT THREATEN ANY RECORDS, BUT WILL
STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  AN UA TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE
NORTHWEST U.S. COAST WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS IN THE MEANTIME, AND BEGIN TO DISPLACE THE UA RIDGE EASTWARD.
ADDITIONALLY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PINCHED OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES,
AND OVER SOUTH TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING, WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY HEAD NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EASTBOUND UA RIDGE.

THE LATEST CROP OF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE UA
TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO IN THE MANNER DESCRIBED
ABOVE.  THEREFORE, DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW AND A STEADY SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THE END RESULT.  HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE BIG BEND AND
DAVIS MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES UPON THESE AREAS THEN.  RAMPED POPS UP TO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY THURSDAY OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS, THEN OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AS THE UA TROUGH HEADS NORTH OVER THE
REGION.  SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT RATHER THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
SINCE PWATS WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES, OR A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN IN SATURDAY,
HOWEVER THE LENGTH OF TIME THE UA TROUGH STAYS OVER THE AREA REMAINS
TO BE SEEN.  AFTER IT DOES MOVE NORTH, OR EAST, OF THE REGION THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL MAKE A COMEBACK.  DID NOT WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TOO HOT YET SINCE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON WHERE
THE NEW UA RIDGE WILL DEVELOP.  SOME PUT US BACK INTO A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT REGIME, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN NOT AS HOT TEMPERATURES,
BUT ALSO MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 95  67  95  69  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              98  70  99  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               101  67 100  68  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  99  74  97  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           95  69  95  72  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          95  66  94  68  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   94  63  93  65  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   90  56  90  60  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    95  68  95  70  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  94  70  94  72  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    99  70  99  73  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/67