608
FXUS64 KMAF 062324
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
624 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

- Low to medium rain chances continue today and Monday afternoon
  (10-30% for most locations, with highest chances in the Davis
  Mountains).

- Warmer and drier mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Water vapor imagery depicts low to mid-level high pressure situated
over northern Mexico, southern New Mexico, and west Texas. Another
muggy day (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s) is expected as
easterly to southeasterly winds advect abundant Gulf moisture into
the area. Upslope flow in this moist regime will provide orographic
ascent along the Davis Mountains, providing additional chances (10-
25%) rainfall there. An approaching inverted trough enters the
region from the east this afternoon and will bring low to medium (10-
30%) chances of rain across the eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans
Pecos, and Big Bend this afternoon as well. This afternoon`s highs
are forecasted to be lower than yesterday`s due to upslope flow and
continuous muggy conditions. Expect highs ranging from the low 80s
(in the mountains) to low 90s for most. Locations along the Rio
Grande are still expected to see temperatures soar into the upper
90s to lower triple digits.

Hi-res guidance is again hinting at a developing MCS over northeast
New Mexico before moving into southeast New Mexico/far northwestern
Permian Basin late this evening and dissipating around midnight.
Confidence in the MCS making its way this far south remains low
(<20%). Given this uncertainty, have opted not to increase PoPs
again today.

The aforementioned inverted trough continues over the area Monday,
bringing additional (10-30%) chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Forecast soundings continue to show "inverted-V" profiles up to
700mb, evidence of a wind threat with the strongest storms. Per the
SPC Sounding Climatology data, PWAT values remain between the 75th
to 90th percentiles. This means that heavy rain could occur with
some of these showers and thunderstorms. The greatest chances (20-
30%) for showers and thunderstorms appear to be confined to the
higher terrain as southeasterly upslope flow continues. Low
temperatures remain in the upper 60s to low 70s and drier weather is
in store beyond Monday (more on this in the long term discussion).

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A strengthening upper ridge will limit precipitation chances through
the week with hot tempertures returning. A weak disturbance will
rotate around the ridge Tuesday evening within northerly flow aloft.
This will bring a low chance (20-30%) of storms across the Permian
Basin. Otherwise, temperatures will remain near normal in the low to
mid 90s. Ridging expands over the region Wednesday and Thursday
limiting rain chances to the higher terrain at best. Temperatures
will also be on the rise with highs back in the mid to upper 90s for
most locations.

Ridging breaks down toward the weekend allowing temperatures to
decrease back to near normal with low rain chances (20%)
returning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. Some light rain is
possible at CNM this evening, but confidence was too low to include
mention in the TAF. Otherwise, light easterly/southeasterly winds
expected for all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  92  72  93 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 72  92  72  93 /  10  20  10  10
Dryden                   73  93  73  94 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            72  94  72  93 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           67  86  68  86 /   0  20  10  10
Hobbs                    69  91  69  90 /  10  10   0  10
Marfa                    64  88  64  88 /   0  30   0  20
Midland Intl Airport     72  92  73  92 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                   72  91  72  91 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                     72  93  72  93 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...13