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000
FXUS64 KMAF 092250
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
550 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front near the Pecos River will pick up speed this evening as
gusty, northerly winds increase to 20-25kt sustained, and gusts
of 35kt or greater will be possible at all area terminals.  Low
clouds may move south into northern reaches of the forecast area
overnight, but think dry air in place will aid in dissipating the
clouds, and will go with VFR conditions tonight and during the
day Tuesday.  Northerly winds will decrease to 10-15kt late
tonight, but may still be gusty through 10/15Z at some terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017/

Not many changes to the current forecast.  WV shows the upper trough
over SW CO/NW NM at 18, but the cold front ended up a little faster
than previously advertised, and fropa`d KMAF right at 17Z, w/little
fanfare other than establishing the high temp for the day.
Fortunately, westerly downslope flow managed to pump the temp up to
86F before the front arrived.

Unfortunately, there is little antecedent moisture in place for the
front to interact with, and rain chances look slim-to-none for the
short term.  12Z KMAF RAOB came in w/a PWAT of 0.37", or only 44% of
normal.  Dry air advection will continue thru at least late Tuesday
night, when surface flow veers and return flow resumes.

The cold front will slow due to diurnal heating this afternoon
somewhere invof the Pecos River, then pick up speed after sunset.
Pressure rises north of the front suggest a windy night ahead,
w/minimal high gap winds thru KGDP.  Model temp progs suggest nrn
Lea will stay well-abv freezing, w/post-frontal winds to keep things
mixed.  Temperatures then begin a slow rebound Tue/Wed,
w/thicknesses/temps topping out abv-normal by Thursday afternoon
under increasingly SW flow aloft.

Next chance of rain looks to be as soon as Friday night, when the
GFS brings a shortwave into the area, under the RR quadrant of a
250mb jet.  Chances continue thru the weekend, w/models bringing in
a strong cold front Sunday.  Models are wildly out of sync by Friday
night, so details will change as the weekend nears.  Temps should
fall blo-normal Sun/Mon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  65  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       44  65  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         56  70  56  73 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  67  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 42  59  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  64  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          44  70  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           46  65  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         46  65  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           47  66  49  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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