Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 191107

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
607 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Weak upper level ridging continues to build east across the Central
Plains while a weak mid-level shortwave trough slides northeast
across the desert southwest. This shortwave trough will slide
northeast into the Southern Plains by Friday with strong low-
level warm/moist advection ahead of it. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms remain possible Friday evening in strong warm air
advection regime with 45-50kt low-level jet which will persist
into Saturday morning when PW`s increase to over 200% of normal.
A sharp cold front will drop southeast into northeast Nebraska
shortly after sunrise Saturday and continue to move southeast
through the CWA through the daylight hours. Despite modest
instability axis ahead of the boundary, capping inversion may keep
thunderstorms at bay initially with best chance for a few
marginally severe storms in a narrow window of time late Saturday
afternoon, mainly along and south of I- 80. This activity should
be quick to clear from west to east Saturday evening as the front
quickly moves east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Near to slightly above normal temperatures and dry weather
expected Sunday into the early part of the work/school week. We do
continue a very small mention of showers Tuesday but newer
guidance suggesting area could remain dry. A deep trough will
extend over the eastern half of the country by mid week which
should bring in much cooler temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

A weak surface boundary which was stalled over northwest MO and
northeast KS as of 11z will wash out today with light and variable
winds increasing from the south. Scattered high cloudiness will
prevail through much of the forecast period. Tonight, a low-level
jet will develop over the Great Plains with LLWS expected at all
three TAF sites generally after 04z.




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