Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 250445
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF PCPN AROUND THIS EVENING...IT HAS BEEN
MOSTLY VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED. WE DO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN PCPN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF MUCH
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK
WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND THIS WILL THE PRIMARY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS AGAIN MARGINAL TODAY AND THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAP KEEPS THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AS WELL AS
WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL PLAY POPS THAT WAY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR POP MODIFICATIONS...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. FORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT BULK OF ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL BE FOUND WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN WILL STILL EXIST EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD.

BEGINNING MONDAY AFTN...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING
INCREASING BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH VIGOROUS
LITTLE VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ENVIRONMENTAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ENSUES JUST NW OF THE CWA
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL THETA-E CONVG/INVERTED SFC TROF BEFORE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY EXPANDS EWD INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA AS UPPER VORT
MAX TAKES BEST LIFT/MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

TURNING TO WEDNESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE SCALE FLOW PER ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ON TAP THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PDS IN RESPONSE TO PROLONGED MOIST UPGLIDE AND INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT VIA APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

EXPECT THAT CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE BACK DOWN INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT
WIHT SOME RESTRICTION TO VSBY AS WELL. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...
AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS...AND MAINLY AT KLNK AND KOFK. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS POINT. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD/DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER


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