Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 301735
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Combination of RRQ upper divg/minor impulses/moisture rich
environment contributing to scattered TSRA extending from the CWA
swwd into KS and all the way down into the TX panhandle.
Persistent pcpn over the last several hours had prompted issuance
of several Flash Flood Warnings last evening. And with additional
pcpn expected this morning...will maintain Flash Flood Watch along
south of I-80 corridor until early this afternoon . The RAP13 is
showing several boundaries in place in the vicinity of the CWA
this afternoon...any of which could be the focus for TSRA
initiation as environment becomes more unstable...MUCAPEs
2000j/kg. Therefore will opt for high-end chance POPs. Later
tonight...pcpn chances will decrease from north to south rapidly
after midnight as a drier air mass invades from the north. Wed
aftn thru Thursday night...dry conditions continue as best
moisture will be found to the south.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

ECM/GFS/CMC are in general agreement upper level ridge axis will
gradually shift ewd with several impulses ejecting out of the swrn
conus and into the cntrl plains. Influx of low level moisture
return/bndry lyr theta-E advection in the meantime will allow for
increasing precip chances next weekend as well as early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Weak 850MB front is expected to push slowly south during the
period with a chance of thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front
near the southern Nebraska border. MVFR cigs and vsby likely at
KLNK closest to the boundary through around 22z. MVFR cigs in fog
possible at all sites after 06z.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for NEZ066>068-
     078-088>093.

IA...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for IAZ079-080-
     090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Fobert



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