Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 010221
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
921 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS WANED ACROSS OUR CWA AS LINE OF STORMS
HAS PUSHED EAST OF OUR AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OVERRUNNING REGIME UNDER UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE PLAINS. ONE WAVE IN THIS FLOW WAS TRIGGERING STORMS
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA NOW...AND HRRR/RAP MODELS INDICATE THOSE WOULD
APPROACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA NEAR 06Z THEN SWEEP SOUTHEAST. SEVERE
STORMS ARE CERTAINLY NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA MOVES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY 06Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT
SOME CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH BUILDS A BIT TO THE NORTH. SOME SLIGHT POPS IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FAR SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH POPS
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREA AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH.
EXPECT RAIN TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK



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