Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 250824

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
324 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Latest model solutions confirm going fcst over the next several days
is in pretty good shape. The feature of interest this morning
remains shortwave trof ejecting out of the central Rockies
with convective development expected later this afternoon.

Good agreement amongst the models increasing DPVA induces leeside
surface low pressure with impressive boundary layer theta-E
advection for this time of the year ensuing. By late this afternoon
the RAP13 progs rapid destabilization with MLCAPEs peaking around
2000 J/KG. However...the RAP13 is also suggesting initiation will
probably be delayed until until late afternoon and occur on the edge
of the cap extending roughly from nern Neb to w-cntrl IA. At this
point it appears to be at least a marginal threat for severe
storm development mainly south of the I-80 corridor along a
lifting warm front where effective shear/instability will be
maximized. Pcpn activity will likely expand then in areal coverage
during the evening hours with onset of llvl jet. In
is quite possible locally heavy rainfall will be realized come
early Wednesday morning given environmental moisture will be
plentiful with well above normal PWS values peaking around 1.5".

Dry and quite pleasant conditions on tap then Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

No significant changes needed in the extended periods as the
medium range models continue to advertise benign weather into next
weekend along with above normal temps.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the day. Ceilings will lower
to mid-levels through the day, but bulk of chances for
showers/storms should hold off until around 22Z or later at TAF
sites. Have included PROB30 mention for thunder at all sites,
along with prevailing of either showers or vicinity showers. MVFR
ceilings could move in behind the precipitation, and through 06Z,
have included at KOFK and KOMA (KLNK may need a mention past the
end of this TAF cycle).




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