Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 161128
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
528 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Arctic high pressure was located over the northern and central
plains at 08Z while an upper trough axis stretched from the lower
Great Lakes into southwest Kansas. Subzero temperatures covered
much of the region early this morning with northwest winds
producing wind chills in the -20`s. Will keep current advisory in
place for now and let day shift end early if needed. Winds will
diminish during the day as high center drops into the area by this
afternoon then drifts south tonight. Cold temperatures linger into
Tuesday but wind is less as the direction shifts to the south
behind the departing high.

Temperatures then stay the primary focus for the remainder of the
period, however instead of a question of how cold we revert to
how warm they may get by the end of the period on Thursday. As the
upper trough shifts east Tuesday into Wednesday it is replaced by
strong ridging that moves into the region from the west in
advance of the next system approaching the west coast. This system
will impact the region by late in the extended period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

An upper ridge will be in place over the region to start off the
period and continue the trend of warmer temperatures through
Saturday before a more active pattern arrives for late in the
weekend with the potential development of a classic panhandle
low storm system.

Upper flow will become west to southwest as the west coast trough
moves inland on Saturday with cyclogenesis indicated over the
Colorado New Mexico high plains by late Saturday. This system
begins to move northeast toward the lower Missouri Valley Saturday
night and Sunday bringing the potential for a significant winter
storm to parts of the region. The storm track remains uncertain at
this time because of model differences but significant snow will
be possible for Sunday into Monday somewhere in the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

MVFR ceilings fl015-030 with flurries early this morning. Current
short range models having a tough time with the low clouds.  As
the northeast flow aloft becoming more northwest should see the
cloud conditions improve. Northwest surface winds 10 to 20kts this
morning...decreasing to 7 to 14kts this afternoon will light and
variable winds tonight with the surface high pressure system
building in.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ015-018-031>034-
     042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     Wind Chill Warning until noon CST today for NEZ011-012-016-017-
     030.

IA...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Zapotocny



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