Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 190810
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
310 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Conditions look to be more summer-like for the area leading up to
the first day of fall on Friday.

A very warm and moist airmass will be in place across the lower
Missouri Valley today in advance of a cold front pushing into the
northern and central plains. Strong instability will be in place
this afternoon and early this evening from eastern Kansas into
eastern South Dakota where dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s
are expected. Forecast soundings suggest a capping inversion will
be in place from eastern Nebraska into Kansas and limit the
potential for thunderstorms over the forecast area. Better upper
support will exist to the north across the Dakotas as a strong
short wave lifts into the northern plains with the majority of
convection expected there. SPC currently has the higher risk of
severe weather in the northern plains for this afternoon and
evening with a marginal risk touching the northeast Nebraska
border. Low PoPs are in place for the extreme northern part of the
forecast area for late afternoon into tonight as this system works
its way east into Minnesota and Iowa.

A bit cooler temperatures will be over the area on Wednesday
behind the front with the better instability shunted to the east
and south ahead of the front. The front however is expected to
stall by Wednesday night from eastern Iowa into northeast Kansas
with a chance of storms in the vicinity of the front. Extreme southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa will be close enough to the stalled
front for some low PoPs to be included for that time frame. The
unseasonable heat and humidity returns on Thursday as the stalled
front lifts north as a warm front with strong south winds also
developing over the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

By the beginning of the long term the pattern will be dominated by
high pressure over the eastern part of the country and a deep
trough over the west with the forecast area stuck between the two
features. This pattern then basically remains in place through
the weekend before finally shifting slowly east Sunday night and
Monday. This pattern will result in some forecast challenges as
it splits the area with some chance of rain mentioned from late
Friday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Patchy fog may become dense over portions of the area this
morning. Model guidance continues to point at LIFR visibilities at
KOFK but keeping KOMA and KLNK in IFR to MVFR range. In any case,
will likely need amendments throughout the night for any changes
in this forecast. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
throughout Tuesday daylight hours. Did mention LLWS after 03z Wed
as veered nocturnal low-level jet increases.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Kern



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