Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 221712
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1212 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THEN
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER AT 07Z
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WITH AMOUNT OF DRYING AT THE SURFACE AS
THE WINDS INCREASE AND IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
MOS GUIDANCE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER WITH DEWPOINTS COMPARED TO RAP
MODEL. SINCE MOS HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO OVERDUE THE MOISTURE
DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE RAP AND ALLBLEND. THIS GIVES
RH VALUES JUST ABOVE CRITERIA FOR RFW THIS AFTERNOON AND PLAN
ON ADDRESSING VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER INDEX IN HWO FOR NOW.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVE INTO THE AREA. POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT HELPS
TO ENHANCE CONVECTION. OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL INDICATE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH THE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LINGERING SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT HANG AROUND IN THE EAST INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THEN
CLEAR RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. DRY WEATHER AFTER
THAT INTO FRIDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE COMES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING UP AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
KANSAS. SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE INDICATED BY
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS
THAT THE GFS CLOSES OFF THE SYSTEM SOONER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE EURO. EITHER WAY BOTH MODELS KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

GENERALLY LOOK FOR VFR CONDTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS
MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH -SHRA
ACTIVITY. DID NOT MENTION -TSRA IN TAFS FOR NOW...SINCE COVERAGE
MAY BE LIMITED. DECIDED TO ADD IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR TONIGHT
AS WINDS ALOFT BELOW 2000 FEET INCREASE INTO THE 40 TO 50 KNOT
RANGE OR MORE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER



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