Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 312324
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER FOR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOCAL AREA. TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK...AND HOW
THE CLOUDS AFFECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM FROM 500 MB RIDGE
AXIS THAT STRETCHED ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO UP TOWARD SOUTHERN
ALBERTA. ONE DISTURBANCE WAS TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX WAS NOTED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST. SURFACE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SEVERAL
FACTORS...AND SOME MODEL QPF OUTPUT...SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

THE H5 RIDGE SHIFTS INTO NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY
AS A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING AND SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY...HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN POPS
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY
MORNING WITH THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
68 TO 74.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE STRETCHES FROM NEW MEXICO INTO NEBRASKA.
CONVECTION FOCUSES OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THERE
IS VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...HOWEVER THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
THERE IS ONGOING THETA-E ADVECTION...BUT NOT MUCH LIFT. LIFTED
INDEX VALUES OF 0 TO -1 WORK INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING.

THE NAEFS/GEFS PW/SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ANOMALIES ARE IN THE
97/99/MAX PERCENTILE FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
LOCAL PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE FROM AROUND 1 INCH TO
1.25-1.5 INCHES THRU TUESDAY. AFTER A MILD NIGHT IN THE
50S...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 75 TO 80 DEGREES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE H5 TROF BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE.
WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...MOVES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT DOES NOT MOVE MUCH
AND IS STILL IN WESTERN NEBRASKA.

00Z NAEFS/GEFS PW/SPECIFIC HUMIDITY HIGH PERCENTILE AREAS SHIFT
EAST MORE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH THETA-E
ADVECTION/H85 DEWPOINTS OF 12-16DEG C SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS SUPPORT PROPAGATION
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ROLLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOO...SO THIS
SHOULD RE- INVIGORATE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST OR OVER OUR AREA.
WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS/HIGH PWS/4KM WARM CLOUD DEPTH WILL INCREASE
THE RESIDENCE TIME OF STORMS/INCREASE EFFICIENCY/POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEDNESDAY/S HIGHS COULD
BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUDS...BUT WILL STILL FORECAST READINGS TO
RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 WITH SUCH A WARM START.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE H5 TROF IS STILL TO OUR WEST WITH A RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE PATTERN PRETTY MUCH STAYS IN PLACE THRU THE EXTENDED.

THE FORECAST AREA IS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR SHORTWAVES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ON
AND OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A MAINLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES ARE SPOTTY SATURDAY WITH AN UPTICK LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WEDGE OF REALLY WARM AIR IS TO OUR
WEST OR SOUTH...AND CLOUDS MAY LIMIT HIGHS SOME DAYS. HIGHS MOST
DAYS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 70S TO THE LOWER/MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY MORNING BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN


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