Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 271129
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
629 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Little change to general forecast trends through the period with
more grey skies than blue.

Short wave trough moving into eastern Kansas early this morning
will reach north central Missouri by late morning and bring an end
to light rain and drizzle currently on radar over southeast
Nebraska. Some decrease in cloud cover is expected during the
afternoon and evening as the system moves off to the east and
short wave ridging moves across the area.

The dry period will be short lived however, as the next system
coming out of the southern Rockies spreads clouds and
precipitation into the western plains on Tuesday and into the
lower Missouri Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. Widespread
rain will expand over the forecast area Tuesday night and persist
into the later part of the week. Area looks to stay on the cool
side of the system during this time with limited instability
indicated, resulting in a low potential for thunderstorms.

Temperatures are also likely to return to a more limited diurnal
range by Wednesday due to the persistent cloudy and rainy
conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Rain chances associated with the central plains storm system will
continue into Thursday before ending Thursday night as the system
moves off to the east. Another brief dry period ensues for Friday
and Friday night as area sits between yet another western storm
system and the departing eastern system. This next western system
will bring a chance of more rain to the area over the weekend
although models show some differences in timing with the GFS a bit
slower and indicating a more cutoff system than the ECMWF
solution.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

MVFR ceilings continue at all 3 site this morning along with some
patchy light rain or drizzle at KOMA/KLNK. The RA/DZ may continue
for another couple of hours and the ceilings are expected to
continue through the morning. By late afternoon though we may see
some VFR conditions develop first at KOFK/KLNk and then
potentially at KOMA. Some short term guidance indicates that MVFR
cigs will continue though through the period at KOMA, but we will
continue to indicate some improvement by late afternoon. VFR
conditions should continue tonight but lower cigs are likely to
move back into the TAF sites just past this forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Boustead



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