Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 150818
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
318 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Generally weak surface features in place across the region this
morning. High pressure was located over the upper Midwest at 07Z
while a weak surface boundary stretched from eastern Iowa into
northwest Missouri then across extreme northern Kansas to low
pressure over west central Kansas. Warm advection wing of
convection had developed over northeast Nebraska and additional
area of convection was over north central Nebraska associated with
a mid level trough over western South Dakota and northwest
Nebraska.

Primary weather concerns through Wednesday will be associated
with thunderstorms and potential for severe weather and heavy rain
as energy from upper trough currently approaching the southern
Rockies lifts into the central plains accompanied by a surface
cold front. Latest models fairly similar in developing a cold
front over the western high plains today in advance of the upper
level wave then pushing the front east tonight and Wednesday as
trough tracks slowly into the region.

A period of morning convection is expected for parts of the area
today mainly from northeast Nebraska into west central Iowa before
ending by late morning. Primary focus then shifts to the west this
afternoon and evening and the cold front moving out of western
Nebraska. This western complex will push east tonight with PoPs
increasing across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa after
midnight and remainly in the likely category through much of Wednesday
as the system takes its time moving through the area. Most significant
rain is expected late Tuesday night when greatest moisture transport
is indicated for the area, however the prolonged period of precip
should provide good amounts for much of the area with estimated
rainfall in the 1 to 3 inch range for Tuesday through Wednesday
night.

System moves east of the area late Wednesday night with dry
weather for Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Pattern looks to remain active with additional upper waves moving
through the region. More rain chances are expected Friday and
Friday night with most of the weekend looking dry. Another chance
comes in Sunday night and early Monday then again Monday night.
This may impact viewing conditions for the eclipse on Monday
depending on extent of lingering sky cover.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Added mention of TSRA at KOFK for the overnight. We could also see
some SHRA or TSRA at KOMA, mainly after 10Z. Although surface
based instability is limited, coverage of storms should increase
after midnight, and may last into mid morning in western IA. For
now, left SHRA and TSRA out of the KLNK TAF, but would amend as
needed. MVFR ceilings possible late tonight and into mid morning
Tuesday, especially in precipitation.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Miller



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