Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 281140
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
640 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Water vapor imagery and regional VWP this morning
revealing pair of minor vort maxes...one over ern MT with the other
over srn Neb.

Disturbances were adding support to several areas of elevated
convection from wrn Neb into the wrn Dakotas and ern MT where
MUCAPES were 500-1000J/KG. And at this point,both HRRR and RAP13
indicate wrn CWA should be spared from seeing any pcpn this
morning, so will maintain dry fcst. However HRRR along with the
NAM12 and CMC hint that an area of convection will develop this
aftn over wrn Neb with increasing areal coverage approaching the
SWRN CWA early this evening then slowly expand EWD over portions
of the CWA on Friday. Confidence of this actually taking place is
quite low...thus will stick with small token POPs.

Friday night through Saturday night...feel somewhat compelled to
maintain small POPs in the fcst given series of Pac NW impulses
dropping into the region...any of which could spark off a few TSRAs.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

GFS/ECM/CMC QPF fields continue to be all over the place...making
POP fcst quite problematic. However...there is some agreement a
series of frontal boundaries will drop out of the north and into the
CWA...one Monday night then another Wednesday night. Models indicate
shear will be present to allow for possible severe storm
development. However...far enough out to not be concerned with it at
this time. Otherwise...increasing hgts will allow for max temps to
rebound into the low/mid 90s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

VFR conditions will continue through Friday morning. Scattered to
broken mid level clouds will be the most prominent aspect of this
forecast. However there is a small chance showers or thunderstorms
could approach eastern Nebraska toward 06Z as a system rolls off
the high plains. Expected isolated coverage and low confidence of
occurrence preclude a mention in TAF at this point.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Dergan


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