Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 012329
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE
ENDING OF THE LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AND ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE...
CLOUDS...AND FOG OVERNIGHT...AND IF SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP AS
THREE SUBTLE WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF BUMPY STRATOCU
OVER THE AREA AND THE WSR-88D HAD A FEW ECHOES TOWARD DECATUR AND
LYONS. THE CLOSED H5 CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OVER CENTRAL IOWA.
TONIGHT...WE LOSE OUR LIFT AND HEATING...THUS THE MAIN AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST...HOWEVER A FEW SPRINKLES SHOULD LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE
ALREADY WORKING INTO THE NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
DECREASING CLOUDS. IN ADDITION...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPREADS ARE CLOSER...AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE DUE TO THE WET GROUND...CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS.

MONDAY...THERE IS SOME H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH 100 TO 300
J/KG. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN AND THERE IS A POCKET OF WEAK LIFT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH. INCLUDED LOW POPS IN FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THE
DAY...AND SOME LOW POPS ADJACENT TO LBF/GID OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE AND SOME STRONG H7 WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THE MAIN LIFT TO THE EAST. MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME
POPS IF BETTER MOISTURE IS REALIZED...HOWEVER...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
DRY.

HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY...THEN 60S TO 70 FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
EACH DAY. TYPICAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE AROUND 70. A
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A WEAK
RIPPLE IN THE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MVFR CIGS CONT AT KOMA/KLNK...BUT THESE WILL BE IMPROVING TO VFR
LATE THIS EVNG...BUT A SCT TO BKN DECK AT FL040-060 WILL CONT
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL 3 SITES THROUGH THE DAY
ON MON. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT
BECOME NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THAT`S A WRAP FOR APRIL. APRIL 2016 WAS THE 11TH WETTEST ON RECORD
AT OMAHA, LINCOLN THE 15TH WETTEST, AND NORFOLK THE 10TH WETTEST
WITH 5.40/4.37/5.21 INCHES OF RAINFALL RESPECTIVELY. NORMAL IS
2.96/2.71/2.65 RESPECTIVELY.

FOR THE MONTH, TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE NORMAL WITH A DEPARTURE OF
3.3 DEGREES AT OMAHA...3.5 DEGREE AT LINCOLN...AND 1.3 DEGREES AT
NORFOLK.

IN CASE YOU WERE WONDERING, HERE ARE THE SEASONAL SNOW TOTALS...
27.4 INCHES AT OMAHA (1 INCH ABOVE NORMAL), 20.5 INCHES AT LINCOLN
(5.4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL), AND 53.0 INCHES OF SNOW AT NORFOLK
(22.5 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL).

WOW...THAT IS A LOT OF SNOW AT NORFOLK. OF AVAILABLE DATA...THE
RECORD AT NORFOLK IS 86.1 INCHES IN 1984. THE LAST TIME NORFOLK
HAD OVER 50 INCHES OF SNOW WAS 2010 WITH 55 INCHES AND IN 1960
WITH 59 INCHES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...
CLIMATE...ZAPOTOCNY



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