Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 301744
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1144 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL DEAL WITH IMPACT OF SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM COMING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS AS AREA SITS
BETWEEN ADVANCING COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH AND EASTWARD TRACK OF
THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LOOK
TO BE THE MAIN AREA TO RECEIVE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP...MAINLY
LIQUID...IN OUR AREA. INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WITH GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MAINLY RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE TEMPS STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH
WHERE DEEPER LAYER OF COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME DUE TO ABOVE
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
NORTH.

CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE SOUTH EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR SINKS DEEPER SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENT
OF SNOWFALL IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHICH WILL PUSH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM EASTWARD. CURRENT MODELS MOVE FEATURE
QUICKLY INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND LIMITS TIME OF MAX SNOWFALL TO
A SHORT PERIOD AROUND MIDNIGHT AS BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SNOWFALL IN 1-2 INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW LINGERS IN THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOWCOVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES UP
AND DOWN AS ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WARM AND COLD ADVECTION MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AROUND WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD
THE END OF THIS CYCLE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH MVFR CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHEAST BEFORE 12Z.
PCPN SHOULD MOVE INTO KLNK FIRST AROUND 13-18Z....WITH KOMA
FOLLWOING AROUND 16-18Z. PCPN TYPE THROUGH 18Z SHOULD MAINLY BE
-RA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN



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