Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 301650

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1150 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Issued at 1150 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Fog that developed this morning had mixed out as of mid morning.
Skies are currently generally clear, but expect an increase in low
clouds from the east and an increase in high clouds from the west
later today and tonight. Only made minor tweaks to grids and text
products for the today period.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Little in the way of sensible weather is expected again today for
the CWA with highs very similar to that seen on Thursday. Early
morning water vapor indicated a deep cut-off low over the Ohio
valley. This is expected to slowly lift to the north into the
Great Lakes. As this occurs moisture is likely to wrap back
westward into the mid Missouri River Valley tonight in the form of
some stratus. Timing of this cloud deck, as well as westward
extent significantly impacts overnight lows. Will likely stay in
the 50s where the clouds come in, but drop back into the mid 40s
to the west of the deck. Current feeling is the westward extent
will generally be from YKN-OFK-LNK-FNB by 12Z Sat. We may also
see some fog develop along the western edge of the stratus deck,
but given the uncertainty in placement we will leave it out of the
forecast for now. A good deal of clouds will likely remain over
the eastern 2/3rd of the FA on Saturday as the low-level flow
turns southeast and keeps the moisture in place. We should
generally see a decrease in clouds for Saturday night into Sunday
along with warmer temperatures as a bit better southeasterly flow
develops over the area as the surface ridge axis shifts east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Main weather story in the extended will come in from Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Strong height falls are expected to move into the
western US late in the weekend and develop a closed cyclone over
the Great Basin by Monday. Models seem to have converged on a
solution of additional strong jet energy moving into the base of
the trough, which allows the system to become negatively titled as
it emerges onto the Plains on Tuesday. Strong WAA ahead of this
system on Monday night into Tuesday will likely lead to some
showers developing and will include some pops staring late Monday
night into the day on Tuesday. Quality moisture return ahead of
the Pacific front on Tuesday will be rather limited, but given the
impressive QG forcing that shifts through the CWA late Tuesday
into Tuesday night likely pops appear warranted. Will include
some pops into the day on Wednesday as the Pacific front slowly
moves through, but the CWA should be dry again by Thursday as the
system pushes to the east with cooler weather again settling in.


Issued at 1150 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Expect VFR conditions the rest of the daytime hours with winds
generally under 10 knots. Low clouds should increase from the
east tonight, with potential for visibility restrictions from fog
late tonight into Saturday morning.


.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Boustead
LONG TERM...Boustead
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