Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 292312
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
612 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
DEPICTING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN
RESPONSE TO LIFTING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE TROF. IMPRESSIVE 500MB HGT
FALLS AROUND 100M ARE PROGGED TONIGHT AHEAD OF VERY POTENT VORT MAX
AS IT EJECTS OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
BEFORE TIGHT CIRCULATION AND SFC REFLECTION REACHES SD ON TUESDAY.

WARM SECTOR PCPN IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INVOF THE NEB
PANHANDLE THEN EXPAND EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIRES ARW/NMM
ADVERTISE ACTIVITY REACHING OUTSKIRTS OF THE WRN CWA SOMETIME
SHORTLY AFT 12Z.

MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE NRN CWA INVOF TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC LOW IN SD...AND SHOULD BE PRIME LOCATION FOR SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TUES AFTN. THUS AREA INCLUDED IN SPC DAY2 SLGT
OUTLOOK. BY WED AFTN...REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN EXPECTED AS COLD
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CWA. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL
BNDRY SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE OMAHA METRO SOMETIME LATE
WED EVENING. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
BNDRY TO TAP INTO...AND APPEARS THAT GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE REALIZED MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA BY THUR MORNING.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEN THUR AFTN WHEN SECONDARY SHOT
OF CAA FILTERING IN SHOVES COLD FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

PCPN CHANCES THRU THE EXTENDED PDS APPEAR TO BE RATHER SMALL AT
BEST THUS ONLY ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS TEMPS. GENERAL AGREEMENT
UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL NUDGE CNTRL
CONUS TROF EWD TO INTO THE ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THUS WARMING TREND
ON TAP GOING FROM LOW/MID 60S ON FRI TO LOW/MID 70S NEXT SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A DISTURBANCE OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD SEND A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME
WEAKENING POSSIBLY BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THUS THE PREVAILING TSTM MENTION WITH THE
00Z TAFS AT KOFK AND KLNK AND THE TEMPO GROUP FOR KOMA.
REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH WAS HANDLED WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK



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