Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 140418
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1118 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WAS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
AS OF LATE EVENING. BACK EDGE OF SNOW WAS WORKING THROUGH WESTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY AS OF 11 PM...AND SNOW HAD ENDED AT THE LINCOLN
AIRPORT. BANDED STRUCTURE OF RADAR RETURNS SUGGESTS SOME POCKETS
OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE WHOLE AREA SHIFTS INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. SPOTTER REPORTS WITHIN THE
BANDS INDICATE SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNDER AN INCH...AND MOSTLY ON
GRASSY AREAS. BUT WEBCAMS SHOW ACCUMULATION ON ROADS UNDER
HEAVIEST BANDS WHICH ARE PRODUCING SLUSHY DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR A
TIME BEFORE MELTING OCCURS. CURRENT TRENDS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN
ON TRACK WITH AREAS EAST OF A MISSOURI VALLEY TO OMAHA AND
LINCOLN LINE EXPERIENCING A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH AN
OCCASIONAL BURST OF MODERATE SNOW. EXPECT ALL THE SNOW TO BE EAST
OF SOUTHWEST IOWA BY ABOUT 4 AM.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST AND ITS VARIETY OF WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

COLDER AIR CONTINUES ITS SLOW ADVANCE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 19Z
WITH SNOW NOW FALLING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEST OF A COLUMBUS
TO SIOUX CITY LINE. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGEST
MAIN ORIENTATION OF THE SNOW BAND WILL GENERALLY SETUP IN AN AREA
BOUNDED BY COLUMBUS TO TEKAMAH ON THE SOUTH AND YANKTON TO NELIGH
ON THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST INTO CENTRAL IOWA. SNOW THEN SPREADS EAST
AND ENDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. EXPECT SNOW TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LIKELY
EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE 00Z
TIME FRAME IN LINE WITH EXPECTED SNOW. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR
1 TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS BY EVENING IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE EVENING.

WILL ALSO EXPAND WIND ADVISORY ACROSS REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTEND THROUGH 03Z.

WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR THE AREA AFTER TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH WARMER AIR RETURNING
TO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

COOL AND WET START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER COLD UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. DAY TO DAY
WARMING FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL
OCCASIONALLY DROP CIGS TO NEAR FL010 AND VSBYS BETWEEN 1SM AND 2SM
IN THE KLNK AND KOMA THROUGH THE 04Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. THAT
PRECIPITATION AND CIGS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA NEAR AND
AFTER 06Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 08Z. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO
35KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 02Z THEN DECREASE INTO THE 15 TO
25KT RANGE. EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN



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