Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 061723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1123 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Early morning water vapor imagery shows potent closed low
rotating northeast over eastern North Dakota with trailing trough
extending into western Nebraska. This system has allowed a strong
cold front to drop southeast across the region followed by gusty
northwest winds. A secondary shortwave trough moving across the
Pacific Northwest will continue to dig southeast across the
Rockies and into the central High Plains late today into
Wednesday. Model trends continue to take this system to our south
which provides only small pops for our southern counties. Snowfall
amounts along the Kansas/Nebraska border should be under an inch,
if much at all. A stronger Arctic surge will follow this trough
into the end of the week as a 1040mb surface high builds south
from the Northern Plains. Friday morning looks to be our coldest
under the sfc ridge axis with lows in the single digits.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Strong return flow will set up Friday bringing strong warm air
advection into the region ahead of the next approaching upper
shortwave trough. Model agreement remains poor regarding strength of
this upper trough with the GFS being the strongest. Model blends
continue to come to a middle of the road solution and place small
pops in the forecast Saturday night. Temperatures through the
weekend and into early next week will remain closer to normal with
hints of another arctic surge approaching by mid week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty northwest
winds are expected through the afternoon today with clear skies.
The gusts will tend to diminish toward evening, but may tend to
linger into the night at KOFK. Overnight and into the day on
Wednesday we will see an increase in mid and high level clouds at
all 3 sites, but not preciptiation is expected.





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