Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 221123
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
523 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

The region remains in between amplified ridging over the western
states and a trough over the eastern third of the country. A cold surface
high pressure ridge has settled over the forecast area this
morning allowing temperatures to bottom out into the 10-15 degree
range across most areas with some single digit readings across
northeast Nebraska. The surface high will continue to slide
southeast through the day allowing return southwesterly flow to
increase with strong warm air advection to our west signaling the
beginning of our Thanksgiving weekend warm- up.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

By early Friday morning, 850mb temps are forecast around +16C over
the region. Temperatures should be able to mix out quite well as
a fast moving surface cold front dives through the area from late
morning through early afternoon. Behind the front, 850mb winds are
near 45-55kts which could mix winds to near advisory criteria.
Have continued to bump up wind speeds from model blends. Post-
frontal temperatures are not expected to fall too drastically,
with lows on Friday night generally in the mid to upper 30s. Upper
level ridge axis to our west will continue to slide east through
the weekend allowing temps to remain above normal with +18C 850mb
temps again on Monday into Tuesday.

A deepening trough will dig across the western states and into
the High Plains region by Tuesday sending a strong cold front into
the Central Plains. This will allow a cold Canadian airmass to
drop into the region. Main precipitation area associated with the
trough appears to remain across the Dakotas with our northern
counties possibly getting brushed with some light QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 523 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Surface high pressure centered over the mid to lower MO Valley as
of 11z will build southeast today with light and variable winds
increasing from the south from mid morning into afternoon. A weak
front will move through eastern NE tonight with winds gradually
veering to the west with it`s passage. Outside of some high-level
cloudiness, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Mead


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