Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 101131
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THIS PERIOD. LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD UNDERGO SOME
CHANGES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION EXPANDS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS CANADA. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE THEN RETROGRADES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE FLOW AMPLIFIES. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD A
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

TODAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. MAIN
AREA OF TSTMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW POPS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO MID MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT...BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 1.50 TO 2.00 RANGE AND
THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS SOME VALUES OVER 2.00 INCHES. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING MOISTURE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO A TSTM COMPLEX
SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION. FOR NOW TENDED TO FAVOR 00Z GFS FOR PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS. SO...THAT KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS FOR ABOUT THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH 85 TO 90 MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER 90S NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS MOSTLY 30 TO 50 PERCENT AS OUR AREA
WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN A FAVORABLE REGIME FOR PCPN...
ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE A
BIT COOLER WITH MID 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS PERIOD...THEN COOL TO WELL BELOW TYPICAL VALUES FOR MID
JULY. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN AIRMASS TO DROP
DOWN INTO THE AREA AS RIDGE AXIS ALOFT BUILDS OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. KEPT SOME MENTION OF PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WENT
WITH POPS 14 OR LESS AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT
PRECIP MENTION OUT FOR NOW. THOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE MENTION THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...AT AROUND 15-20KT
GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30KT...WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND
10-14KT AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MAYES



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