Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 300842
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
342 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

A mid level shortwave trough currently over southwest Canada is
forecast to close off as it slides southeast into the Northern
Plains over the next 24 hours. In addition, a very weak vort lobe
now over northeast Colorado will slide east/northeast throughout
the day. At the surface, an area of low presure over eastern
Wyoming will strengthen over the Black Hills and slide east across
South Dakota through the day. This will drag a trailing cold front
into the CWA tonight into a moderately unstable airmass. Of note,
the NAM looks too high with boundary layer moisture leading to
overdone instability. To complicate matters, latest runs of CAM`s
develop scattered convection through the morning, most likely in
association with isentropic upglide in warm air advection pattern.
Will carry a low confidence low pop through the morning and early
afternoon hours to account for this. Additional forcing for ascent may
come from weak shortwave moving across Nebraska today as well.

In any event, strongest convection is expected along the cold
front this evening and overnight. This activity should clear the
southeastern counties by mid Tuesday morning. Portions of the
area have been outlooked in a Slight Risk in SWODY1 and also
WPC`s Slight Risk for excessive rainfall.

Surface high pressure will build in behind this Tuesday and
should persist over the region through mid to late week.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Dry conditions expected for the beginning of the long term with
surface high pressure overhead. Region remains in weak, nearly
zonal flow aloft with flow becoming more northwesterly by the
weekend as ridging builds to our west. A cold front is progged to
drop through the region late Friday night which will is our next
chance for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Thunderstorms may affect KOFK 06-08z, but not confident anything
will hold together to affect KLNK/KOMA. Otherwise, VFR conditions
through the period. Additional thunderstorms may develop 22z-06z
as a cold front begins to move into the area.


&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...DeWald


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