Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 190520
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION...WHICH MAY BE HARD TO GET RID OF AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ALMOST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM/HRRR/RAP SEEM
OVERDONE ON GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT. WHILE WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT CONTINUES...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN VERY LARGE.
WITHOUT ICE CRYSTALS PRESENT DUE TO THE SHALLOW MOISTURE
DEPTH...ANY PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL WE GET A CLEARER PICTURE ON ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXIST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCRUB OUT...RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES.
MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AGAIN FEEL THIS MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT AGAIN IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP IT COULD BE PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS COULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A VERY WEAK CLIPPER
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HAVE ADDED FOG AND WILL HOLD
OFF ANY DRIZZLE MENTION THAT FAR OUT.

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING PRECIP JUST
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES IN THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH THEN
EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...AND EVENTUALLY SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ON NORTHWEST FLOW. THAT PROBABLY WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER... THEN THE NEXT TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD GIVE US A
SHOT OF SNOW FOR CHRISTMAS...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE ALSO TRENDING
SOUTH WITH THIS WITH MORE IMPACT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
JUST GIVING US A GLANCING BLOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS INTO MID
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY LATER IN
THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS. LOW CEILINGS
MAY RETURN AGAIN THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER


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