Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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104
FXUS63 KOAX 261123
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
623 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Weak wave moving through the central Plains now could still bring
a slight chance of isolated lingering showers or sprinkles this
morning. There is another weak wave moving out of eastern WY, and
the HRRR/Rap suggest isolated showers could still develop in north
central NE moving into northeast NE, but all other models are dry
in that area. Otherwise, highs today in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

The next weak trough moving out of the Rockies should generate an
MCS across the western High Plains, which roll eastward tonight
toward our area. A little unsure how far east this MCS makes, as
some model solutions actually don`t move this in until Saturday
morning. For now, at least have some 20-30% pops into eastern NE
after midnight, with 40-60% pops into Saturday morning. Cooler
temps in the upper 60s/upper 70s on Saturday. Really unsure about
any additional convective development Saturday afternoon, as the
area will be in the wake of the subsidence from the departing
wave. Suppose a spotty shower chance can`t be ruled out.

Better convective development appears likely Saturday evening
across eastern KS and central MO just south of our area, where
severe weather threat should exist. Will still have small chances
of thunderstorms Saturday evening, but really feel best chance is
south.

Awesome weather develops Sunday with dry weather and temps in the
mid 70s, but with breezy northwesterly winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Great weather continues through Memorial Day with highs again in
the 70s. There is a weak front passing through the region, which
could trigger isolated storms Monday night, but the risk of small.
Additional rain chances Tuesday night through Thursday as a few
impulses move through the Plains, although GFS and ECMWF are not
in great agreement on the details of timing right now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF cycle. A few
sprinkles are possible for the first two hours at KOMA but
otherwise, skies should begin to clear out throughout the day.
KOFK has already had a wind shift to the northwest and KOMA and
KLNK will see a change in wind direction to the northwest in the
first couple hours of the TAF as a cool front drops into the
region. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms overnight
should hold off until the last couple hours of the TAF period so
did not include at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Kern



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