Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 102122
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
322 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE CWA
DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST OF THE THESE WAS CURRENTLY SEEN
IN NRN BC AND WILL DIVE SEWD TMRW ALNG THE STG THERMAL GRADIENT
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH STATIC STABILITY IS FAIRLY HIGH
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO AN
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE AND A WEAK FRONTAL CIRCULATION DVLPS WITH
SOME -SN BY AFTN OVER THE N STREAKING SEWD INTO WRN IA ON THU EVNG
WITH A HALF INCH OR SO ACCUM. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE MID MO RVR VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT
MRNG WITH BELOW NORMAL TMPS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVES IN FOR SAT AND COULD SPREAD MORE LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY THE NRN CWA DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

PREFER THE EC/GEM TO START THIS PERIOD AS THE GFS APPEARS OVER-
DONE WITH FORCING/QFP FOR SUN WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO
BE TO OUR N/E. AFTER SUN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO
NORTHWEST/WEST AND WE SHOULD SEE WARMING TMPS INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ON HOW WARM AND WILL
STAY CLOSE TO CLIMO WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
TO THE SOUTH AND FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST...SHOULD PULL BACK MVFR
CIGS IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES/SATURATION TEND TO KEEP THE FLURRIES EAST OF THE
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES LATER THURSDAY. VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY


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