Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 140900
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
300 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 259 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Most pressing issue is the fog this morning. Satl imagery and
regional obs were showing an extensive shield of stratus/fog
covering most of KS...central/eastern NE...most of IA...and into MN.
Lowest visibilities though are mainly over central NE close to the
back edge of stratus/clear skies. Per latest HRRR-TL ensembles,
conditions should quickly deteriorate over the western periphery of
the CWA the next couple hours within the counties already under a
Fog Advisory this morning.

Moist southerly flow today, ahead of a cold front dropping through
the Dakotas, will provide fuel for possible precip tonight.
Strengthening mid layer ageostrophic forcing is progged to tap into
moisture pooling along the boundary, with precip activity
focused along/south of I-80.

Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail Wednesday through Thursday
evening.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Main issue to contend with in the extended periods is precip chances
Friday/Friday night. Initially, the best chance for rain will be
across the eastern CWA during the morning hours where isentropic
upglide will be most pronounced. Precip chances shift to the
northern CWA during the afternoon hours revolving around Shortwave
trof dragging a cold front through the Dakotas. The surface boundary
is progged to quickly sweep southward through the CWA Friday
evening. Significant timing differences with respect to QPF between
the models. Both the GFS and CMC are quite pretty much similar in
showing precip activity clearing the CWA before 12z Saturday.
Meanwhile, the ECM keeps precip going until 12z Saturday. Dry then
through the rest of the weekend as well as next Monday.

Otherwise, cold air advection associated with the passing front is
progged to be rather weak. As a matter of fact, high temps Saturday
and Sunday will be near normal, topping out in the mid/upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Variable conditions across the area tonight with the stratus
expanding into west central Nebraska and some improving conditions
for the TAF sites early on. The winds have been a little stronger
and are forecast a little stronger overnight. This may help keep
vsbys/cigs more elevated, however low level moist advection
continues...although there is drying aloft. MVFR/IFR conditions
forecast early on to deteriorate to IFR with some LIFR/VLIFR
possible toward morning. Southeast winds 6-12kts tonight becoming
south to southwest 10 to 14kts after 16Z...then northwest Tuesday
evening.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NEZ016-017-
     030>032-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.

IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Zapotocny



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