Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 180906
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
306 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

A period of pleasant weather will prevail through the short term
with temperatures warming to above seasonal normals each day.

Upper ridge axis stretched from the desert southwest across the
central Rockies and into the Canadian prairies at 08Z with a
developing surface trough over the western high plains. As the
upper ridge drifts east and flattens over the region through
Friday, significantly warmer air will overspread the central
plains with west to southwest flow at the surface.

Parts of the area with deeper snow cover will see a lag in the
return of warmer temperatures today but nonetheless, still climb
above freezing with even greater warming on Friday as temperatures
climb into the 40s and 50s across the area. Slightly cooler air
will drop into the area on Saturday as a frontal boundary begins
to develop over the region ahead of low pressure organizing over
Colorado in advance of a strong shortwave trough approaching the
southern Rockies.

This system will bring widespread winter weather from the central
plains into the upper Midwest from Sunday into early next week.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

As mentioned above, a widespread area of winter weather is
expected to track across the region from late Saturday night into
Tuesday with the potential for a significant winter storm system
to develop. The exact track and timing of the system remains
uncertain however due to differing model solutions.

The GFS remains the faster of the models with the others showing a
slower track into and across the region. Mixed precipitation is
likely for the area initially on Sunday before changing over to
all snow Sunday night with snow continuing into Monday. Strong
north to northwest winds will also accompany this storm with the
potential for near blizzard conditions in some areas by Monday
morning. The storm should be winding down Monday night with
seasonal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1033 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle, with clear
skies and unrestricted visibilities. South to southwest winds of
around 5-10kt are expected, reaching 10-15kt intermittently this
evening at KOFK.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Mayes


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