Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 291731
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1231 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Models continue to advertise large scale pattern becoming well
amplified over the next couple days with an upper ridge becoming
established over the central conus by mid week. Meanwhile...influx
of gulf moisture into the central plains will continue until
surface building in from the north advects a drier air mass into
the CWA. POPs in going forecast look reasonable for now as models
persist in showing several impulses undercutting the developing
upper ridge will help maintain potential for precip activity
across the majority of the central plains. Thus...moderate
instability coupled with moisture rich environment will be enough
to pop off mostly scattered TSRA from this afternoon through about
Wednesday afternoon. Dry air mass filtering Wednesday night will
keep any precip activity south of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

ECM/GFS/CMC are in general agreement impulses ejecting out of
the swrn  conus along with surge of low level moisture return/bndry
lyr theta-E advection will increase precip chances through most of
next weekend. Chance POPs already in place look reasonable for
now...so no major changes planned.

Otherwise...near below normal max temps expected through the
extended periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Current water vapor imagery depicts a pronounced moisture plume
originating from the sub-tropical Pacific and stretching through
the mid Missouri Valley. This moisture extends through a deep
layer with the 12z OAX sounding sampling above 90th percentile PW
values when compared to climatology for this date. The upshot is
that we expect this moisture to fuel scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Confidence in a
thunderstorm occurrence at any TAF location remains low, so we
will only include a vicintiy mention in the near term, and use
PROB30 groups for tonight. Expect prevailing VFR conditions
outside of thunderstorm areas with restrictions in visibility and
variably gusty winds possible in and near the stronger storms.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Mead


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