Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 230443
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH WRN NEBR PER EARLY AFTN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS KICKING OFF AN INCREASING CONVECTIVE BAND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT 20Z...FM NEAR WAYNE TO JUST WEST THEN SW
OF COLUMBUS. STRONGER ACTIVITY WAS IN ADVANCE OF A COOL FRONT THAT
WAS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES...OR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH...E THROUGH
THE FA TONIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. PER
HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/HRRR CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE SPREAD FROM W
TO EAST THROUGH THE FA THIS EVENING WITH SOME TRAILING
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING NEAR FRONT KEEPING POPS
IN FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER AFTER INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND PASSES.
WITH ALL OF THE PRECIP AND ASSOCD CLOUDS MOVING INTO OR EVEN EAST
OF FAR SERN ZONES BY MORNING...CLEARING SKIES...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND COULD LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND AREAS OF SUCH WERE MAINTAINED.

THE REST OF SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY. A TRAILING WAVE ON THURSDAY
COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND WITH WEAK WINDS...MIXING
COULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD EITHER BE EARLY
...LINGERING BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM SE...OR ARRIVING LATER IN
THE AFTN WITH THIS NEXT WAVE. ALSO AIRMASS SEEMS WARM ENOUGH THAT
HIGHS NEAR 70/LOWER 70S SHOULD AT LEAST BE OBSERVED PER NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIXING ONLY TO NEAR 900 MB AT KOMA.

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES LATE THU INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING
LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH BULK OF SUCH WOULD APPEAR TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS THE FA WHICH COULD LIMIT
MAX TEMPS IF CIRRUS IS THICK ENOUGH...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR FRIDAY BEING QUITE MILD. SWRLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND SOME
MID/LOWER CLOUDS THU NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WITH LITTLE OR NO COOL ADVECTION FRIDAY AS WAVE TRAVELS ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS BETTER MOST AREAS.

WEAK COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE AND N/NERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTN
SHOULD BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE REGION. STILL APPEARS MOST
AREAS WILL REACH AT LEAST LOWER 70S PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS NOT
MUCH MIXING WAS NEEDED TO REACH THAT LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY STRONG...COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE ON
SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AND COULD KEEP HIGHS ON SUNDAY NEAR
SATURDAYS LEVEL. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE FROM EARLIER
FORECAST/MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF FLOW TURNS MORE SWRLY OR EVEN
SRLY COULD SEE NEED FOR BOOSTS IN LATER FORECASTS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WITH NEXT TROUGH CROSSING
THE PLAINS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH 12Z RUNS GENERATED LITTLE
PRECIP ACROSS OUR FA. DID MENTION SLGT CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS APPARENT CURRENT SMALL CHANCE. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE FA...BUT COOL ADVECTION WAS
DELAYED SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A LITTLE WARMER READINGS...SPCLY SE...ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
AS VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SLIDE EAST...AN EXPANDING AREA OF FOG WILL
SPREAD EAST AS WELL. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW
LOW TO GO IN REGARDS TO CIGS/VISIBILITIES AT OUR TAF
SITES...HOWEVER LIGHT WIND AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
EVENING RAIN WILL WARRANT SOME MENTION. WILL LEAVE TO AMENDMENTS IF
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW IFR OR BECOME LIFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...KERN



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