Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 252102
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FIRST PRECIP EVENT IS WINDING DOWN WITH RAIN/SNOW BAND QUICKLY
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST...MOVING EAST OF THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 6 PM. WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
MONONA/HARRISON...BUT LEAVE IN FOR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
SHELBY/POTTAWATTAMIE FOR ONE MORE HOUR.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO A TRANSITION OF SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION. LOW TONIGHT DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH...COULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10
TO 22 BELOW ZERO. THUS...WILL GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT DROP TO CRITERIA AROUND -20 LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SUB ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10 TO 18 BELOW ZERO...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. STILL COLD THOUGH WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT...WITH ECMWF STILL ABOUT 6
HOURS QUICKER WITH THE SNOW DEVELOPMENT THAN GFS/NAM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPER DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY DECENT CONSISTENCY.
50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW STILL SEEMS FINE FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. WHILE WE/RE JUST
WITHIN THE WINDOW OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A PLOWABLE SNOW STILL
SEEMS PROBABLY...WITH MAYBE 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80...SLIGHTLY
LESS FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE THAT STRONG...WITH THE SNOW SPREAD OUT OVER A 24
HOUR PERIOD. ALL IN ALL...NOT LOOKING LIKE A MAJOR SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSHES EAST. THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN.
THERE IS SOME WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS THAT COULD NOSE INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH COULD LEAD TO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES FOR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL
FURTHER REFINE THE FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

WILL OPT FOR DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE FIRST FEW HOURS OF TAF PERIOD...THEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE. KOFK...BAND OF SNOW IS ABOUT THROUGH THE SITE.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE. KOMA...FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO THE SITE AS IS THE
BEGINNING EDGE OF PCPN. RAIN EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A CHANGE OVER
TO RA/SN FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW.
THE SNOW SHOULD BE BRIEF...ONLY AN HOUR...WITH A FEW FLURRIES
LINGERING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND DRYING OUT
THEREAFTER. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. KLNK...FRONT
EDGE OF PCPN BAND IS ALMOST TO THE SITE WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX OF RA/SN MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING THEREAFTER. FOR ALL SITES...GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-
     012-015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ043-
     055-056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ056-
     069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN



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