Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 220441

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1141 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

A large upper level low continues to move north/northeast across
the MN/Canadian border this afternoon with a weak shortwave moving
east across northern Utah and another upstream shortwave diving
south out of southern Saskatchewan per latest water vapor imagery.
Clouds have diminished across most of the CWA but a few remain
closer to the low across northeast Nebraska and much of western

The northern Utah impulse will drive east through the High Plains
while the Canadian impulse dives south across the Northern High
Plains Monday. The western impulse may produce scattered showers
across southeast Nebraska late tonight into Monday morning. A break
is expected for a bit before the northern High Plains impulse begins
to bring scattered thunderstorms into the area Monday with
steepening mid-level lapse rates. Surface dewpoints are forecast
in the mid 50s south of an afternoon cold front, generally south
of I- 80 where instability will be greatest. SPC continues a
marginal risk for Day 2.

Thunderstorms should exit southeast through Monday evening. Behind
this, the region will remain in strong northwesterly flow both aloft
and at the surface as the upper low continues to move slowly
south/southeast. This will provide continued cold air advection
over the region with some scattered showers possible through the
day Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Dry conditions look likely late Tuesday night through early Thursday
as weak upper level ridging begins to build in overhead. A weak mid-
level impulse will drift through the area Thursday afternoon which
could produce some scattered showers. Otherwise, off and on chances
of precipitation remains through the weekend as continued mid-level
impulses take aim at the region around a large upper low that will
be slowly sliding east across southern Canada.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

VFR conditions are indicated through the TAF cycle. Showers or
thunderstorms may affect all sites Monday afternoon, but
confidence is too low in coverage to indicate thunder this early.
Have included VCSH mention for now as an early indicator of
potential. Should a shower/thunderstorm move over a site, brief
reduction to MVFR visibility/ceiling is possible. Winds will be
light for much of today, with directions shifting tonight into
Monday before becoming consistently westerly to northwesterly in
the late afternoon through evening.




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