Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 272314
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
514 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 142 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Upper trough axis continues to move toward the forecast area with
strongest push of large scale motion for ascent occurring this
afternoon over our forecast area just ahead of the trough axis. A
few lightning strikes have been showing up across the area with
very weak elevated instability moving overhead. Latest surface
analysis shows center of the low over south central Nebraska and
this continues to quickly move northeast. A line of weak thunderstorms
continues to form along the dry slot extending south into central
Kansas. As the dry slot spreads east/northeast toward our CWA, we
should be loosing our daytime heating and any storms that did
fire should continue to diminish. Near-term CAM`s support this and
do indicate some heavier QPF values spreading across northeast
Nebraska through 03Z where strongest large scale lift will reside
as the upper trough continues into the eastern Dakotas. Recent
radar mosaics indicate some stronger storms moving northeast
across central Nebraska and dropping some small hail so will need
to keep an eye on any of that reaching our northwestern counties. Rain
will quickly diminish from west to east through the evening hours
as the system and forcing mechanisms continues to rotate
northeast. Portions of our far northern Nebraska counties could
see some trailing pcpn overnight as the entire system moves into
the eastern Dakotas.

By Monday evening, the system will begin to drop south/southeast
bringing colder Canadian air along with it in addition to gusty
northwest winds. This combination will create quite blustery
conditions that will persist from Wed into Thursday. Our far
northern counties could see some light precipitation before the
system completely exits the area Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 142 PM CST Sun
Nov 27 2016

The region will remain in broad west/northwest flow through the
extended which should keep temperatures overall slightly below
normal for this time of the year. No precipitation is in the
forecast until possibly late Saturday if the EC is right. The GFS
varies greatly from this solution so due to uncertainty, will keep
the forecast dry for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 510 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

IFR cigs are expected for the next couple hours at the TAF sites
along with some continued scattered showers, but then a rapid
improvement is expected between 03-05Z at all 3 sites with VFR
conditions developing. The gusty south winds are expected to
continue overnight becoming southwest and west through the day on
Monday. Toward the end of the period we will see a SCT-BKN mid
level deck move southeast into all the TAF sites with some MVFR
possible just after this TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Boustead



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