Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 180437
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1137 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

There will still be some scattered showers and possibly isolated
thunder for a while yet this evening. Surface low was just
northeast of Sioux City at 6 pm and should continue to move off
to the northeast. Low clouds should wrap in from the northwest
this evening and overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

T-Storms will be exiting the area early this evening, but showers
may linger for a while, especially in the northern parts of the
forecast area. Concern after that will switch toward potential for
storms and heavy rain Thursday night into Friday night. Will not
issue a flash flood watch for those periods, but something may be
needed in later forecasts.

Low pressure system will move off toward southeast Minnesota by
midnight, while cold front pushes southeast through the region.
A weak ridge of high pressure should build into the region for
Thursday, with a mainly dry period during the day. That will
quickly change though in the evening as the strong closed mid
level system currently out over southern Idaho tracks southeast.
By Thursday evening, that system should be centered over Colorado
with strong diffluence aloft and moisture increasing in our area.
Instability will be highest across the southern parts of the
forecast area and there will be a marginal risk for severe storms.
Risk appears should be higher from Kansas southward. Precipitable
water values increase Thursday night into the 1.00 to 1.50 inch
range, then decrease a little Friday, before increasing again
Friday night.

Temperatures Thursday should reach the upper 60s to mid 70s
south, ranging to only upper 50s and lower 60s north. Then lows
Thursday night are expected to be 40s north and mostly upper 40s
to lower 50S.

System will lift up into western South Dakota by sunrise Saturday,
then toward northern Minnesota by late Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Conditions should dry out for Saturday into through Sunday, then
the next low pressure system moves in late Sunday night into
Monday with a chance of showers and storms. A trough will move
toward the area from the northwest, in northwest flow. Pattern
looks cool for Tuesday into Thursday, with highs in the mid 60s
to mid 70s.

Model timing differences start to increase by Tuesday, so stayed
fairly close to a blend of all model guidance Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Area will remain under cyclonic circulation through 12Z with gusts
to 25 kts as departing upper low tracks toward the Great Lakes.
MVFR cigs will prevail during this time before improving to VFR by
15Z as surface flow continues to veer toward the northeast. Upper
low over the central Rockies will then begin to impact the area
after 00Z with cigs lowering again to MVFR conditions. Increasing
chance of showers and MVFR vsbys expected to develop through 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Fobert



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