Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 242326

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
626 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Water vapor imagery this aftn showing a well define upper
circulation gradually approaching the wrn Dakotas. Ahead of this
system scattered TSRA has developed right along a cold front with
the leading edge roughly stretching from cntrl KS to the ern
Dakotas. Environmental moisture is quite stout up against the bndry
with PWS around 2". Meanwhile sfc obs are revealing a secondary
surge of upstream CAA over ern MT/ern WY attendant to sfc low
pressure centered in wrn ND. Main issue to contend with is timing
pcpn activity coming to a close tonight. All indications per RAP13
suggest bndry on the wrn periphery will move little thru this
evening...but progs pcpn activity to gradually shift into wrn IA
shortly after midnight as axis of upper level trof enters crosses
the nrn plains...coupled with approach of synoptic cold front. Given
the slow nature of ewd progression...generous rainfall
amounts...particularly over our IA CWA...will likely be realized by
events end early Sunday morning. Otherwise...dry and cooler
conditions will prevail thru mid week with near normal max
temps/slightly below normal lows.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Both GFS/ECM/CMC in pretty good agreement well amplified upper ridge
situated over the cntrl conus will keep conditions dry and
relatively cool heading into next weekend. Small pcpn chances return
Friday late aftn/night as several minor impulses eject from the swrn
states into the cntrl plains. There is some QPF timing
differences...GFS the quicker solution/ECM lagging behind by roughly
12 hrs. Otherwise...near normal temps expected thru the extended


Issued at 625 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Periods of showers or vicinity showers are possible for the next
few hours at all sites. Have kept out a thunder mention as
intensity has waned. Ceilings may flirt with MVFR at KOFK in the
next few hours and at KOMA/KLNK later tonight, but have kept them
in the VFR category for now, with a scattered mention. Otherwise,
conditions will improve in the morning, with increasing northwest
winds beginning late morning or midday and continuing through the
TAF cycle.


.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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