Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 222141
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
341 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
TONIGHT AND RESULTANT FOG AND LOW CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL?...SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
FLURRIES/CHC LIGHT SNOW WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR FOR MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH WINDS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S WERE COMMON LOCALLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE
BANK OF STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 50S. EVEN 50S WERE NOTED IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA UNDER THE STRATUS.

ONE STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROF IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT WILL PULL DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN AND SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
WINDSHIFT/COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z AND IS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...6.5-7 DEG C/KM WITH OMEGA INCREASING.
SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH AND THE SREF HAS A 5-10% PROB FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND MAY INCLUDE A FEW HOURS FOR THE SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN THUNDER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER IDAHO...SO DID
INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND AND CAN
FURTHER REFINE POPS AS NEEDED. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD ALL
RAIN...HOWEVER COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO HAVE A RAIN SNOW MIX.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. ADDED FLURRIES AND ALSO COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COLDER HIGHS IN THE 30S. FOR NOW
HAVE WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WITH THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS FOR FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF SOMEWHAT FOR SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS OF 18Z. KOFK FINALLY WENT VFR WHILE KOMA AND KLNK STILL IN
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SATELLITE SHOWING SIGNS OF STRATUS DECK
ERODING SLOWLY SO EXPECT KOMA AND KLNK TO GO VFR AROUND 21Z. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP
AFTER 00Z. COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MEYER


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