Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 122035
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
235 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Temperatures will provide the primary forecast challenges in this
period.

Large scale pattern at 500 mb features a trough in the western US
and another trough that extends from Hudson Bay toward the
Great Lakes. At the surface, cold high pressure was building east
across MN, IA and MO with low pressure over the high Plains. Warm
advection pattern and some isentropic lift around 700 mb may be
enough to generate some light snow or snow flurries this evening,
mainly across northeast NE. Previous forecast had that mention,
and expanded areal coverage a bit.

Otherwise, will maintain a dry forecast from Tuesday through
Thursday morning. We will be in east to southeast low level flow
tonight, then south or southwest flow Tuesday into Wednesday. This
should allow daytime highs to moderate, but just how much warming
there will be in areas with heavier snowcover is uncertain. MOS
guidances seemed generally within reason for Tuesday, ranging from
lower 30s near the SD border to lower and mid 40s and the KS
border. Temperatures Wednesday will be interesting with a warmer
airmass in place and deeper mixing with west/southwest low level
flow. For now, have highs mainly from the mid 40s to mid 50s
across the area, but we should be able to fine tune that more
tomorrow with better input from satellite pics.

A colder airmass will start to move in from the north Wednesday
night but Arctic air is not expected to move in until Thursday and
Thursday night. For now, only went with a 20 percent chance of
snow in our far northern counties Thursday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

As that colder airmass moves into the area, pattern would normally
suggest some flurries but model guidance does not have much of a
signal for that.

There will generally remain a tendency for a mid tropospheric
trough from Hudson Bay back toward the Four Corners region through
the rest of the forecast period, with some variance as shortwaves
move through the flow. General model consensus is that our next
chance of snow would be Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1049 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will
increase slightly today, but remain south/southeasterly with a
deck of high clouds in place. Some light snow or flurries may be
possible at or around KOFK between 00Z-05Z this evening, but
confidence in it`s occurrence remains too low to mention in the
TAF at this time. LLWS will also be possible at all three TAF
sites between 06Z-14Z Tuesday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...KG



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