Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 212036
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
336 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. ALOFT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NRN TX INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. UPSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE IS A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS CONTINUES TO EJECT LEAD SHORTWAVES OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FRIDAY MORNING BUT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
CLOUDS. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE
AREA WILL COME EARLY TOMORROW AND SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR WESTERN CWA
IN THE MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN MAY MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE
MISSOURI RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
FARTHER EAST.

THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE THEN PASSES LATE ON FRIDAY WHILE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SATURATED
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SATURDAY
IS A COMPLICATED FORECAST BUT HAVE TRIED TO BACK OFF ON POPS JUST A
LITTLE BIT. THE 2ND IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE REGION LATER ON SATURDAY BUT FEEL A MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON
MAY SEE LITTLE IF ANY PCPN. WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF DRIZZLE BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THICK CLOUD COVER. INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY
WEAK SO WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL ROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE ASSOCIATED LEE SIDE SFC LOW DRIFTS INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION OF COLORADO. STRONG/MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF PW`S TO MUCH OF OUR EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF OUR CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH COULD
LEAVE OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA DRY FOR SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW BY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
ANY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BUT THAT IS QUITE A WAYS OFF FOR RIGHT
NOW.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY. ON AND OFF PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE CONTINUOUS PCPN
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THERE HAS BEEN SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IT
HAS NOT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES MUCH SO FAR. LOOK FOR GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO
LEAVE OUT OF THIS SET OF TAFS BUT CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER
FRIDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER


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