Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 180453
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1153 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

After a few active days, quieter and cooler weather is moving into
the area. Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis indicates an upper-level
trough in MB and a weak and broad trough in the southeastern US but
generally zonal flow across the central US. A 140-kt upper-level jet
streak extended from the Pacific Northwest through the Dakotas. An
850mb low was centered in northern ON, and the moisture axis (8C+
dewpoints) had been shunted to east of an axis from central WI
through northwest IA to southesat NE to eastern KS. Surface low at
19Z was centered in the TX panhandle, with a weaker low over
northern ON and a front extending between the two through eastern IA
to northern MO to northeast KS and southwestward.

Main forecast concern is exit of showers this evening/tonight, with
quieter weather to follow. Little instability remains in the area,
as the warm sector of this system has shifted southeast.
Thunderstorm development is expected along the front later this
afternoon, but it does look like that will be south of the area.
Meanwhile, festering showers will continue to move across other
parts of the area; lightning activity has been quiet, but can`t rule
out an isolated storm or two later today. The threat for severe
storms, however, does appear to have shifted southward out of the
area, and chances for rain will end this evening.

A pocket of cooler mid-level air will work across the northern
Plains to upper Midwest on Sunday, keeping temperatures below
normal. May see some afternoon instability showers or isolated
thunderstorms, mainly in northwest Iowa and extreme northeast
Nebraska. These will diminish quickly after peak heating, leaving
quiet weather from Sunday night through Tuesday. Temperatures will
gradually return to near-normal readings for Monday and Tuesday,
with seasonably pleasant temperatures and humidity.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

More active weather returns for at least Wednesday through Friday,
and possibly into the weekend. Upper-level flow remains largely
zonal to slightly northwesterly, with fast-moving ripples. With
return flow bringing mid-level moisture back into the central Plains
on Wednesday, along with possible surface convergence areas with an
approaching surface low, showers and thunderstorms are possible from
Wednesday afternoon into the evening. It`s a little too early to
call the severe weather risk, but it`ll be something to watch. The
surface low and associated front will push further east and closer
to or on top of the area on Thursday, bringing another chance for
afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms - and again, will
need to monitor for severe weather potential.

Picture gets a little murkier for Friday and Saturday, with
different solutions providing different answers on how far south
convection will push as a more prominent upper-level trough moves
across the northern US tier, with marked differences in both
temperatures and thunderstorm chances. For now, will call those days
a period of lower than usual confidence and will let blends ride.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

VFR conditions through the period. There will be scattered showers
that move through the forecast area, but would be south of the TAF
sites at KLNK/KOMA for the next few hours. Northwest winds also
increase to 15 to 25 knots from about 14z-00z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mayes
LONG TERM...Mayes
AVIATION...DeWald



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