Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KOAX 272000
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TSTM CHANCES WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...WHICH HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO AROUND 60 METERS AT 500 MB AT 122...WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EWD TONIGHT. 12Z KOAX SOUNDING WAS FAIRLY MOIST WITH A PW
OF 1.69 INCHES AND MU CAPE OF AROUND 3200 J/KG. MOST RECENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGEY SHOWED ENERGY STILL MOVING TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA...SO
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KMCK.
A WARM FRONT CURVED S/SE FROM THE LOW DOWN INTO CNTRL KS...WHILE A
COLD FRONT WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM WRN NE INTO WRN KS.
MU CAPE VALUES WERE AROUND 3000 J/KG FROM PARTS OF CNTRL NE INTO
NCNTRL KS. 0-6 KM SHEAR WAS ADEQUATE...MAINLY 30-40 KNOTS.

PW VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE BEST PARAMETERS FOR HEAVY RAIN SEEM TO BE COMING
TOGETHER ACROSS NERN NE/SERN SD/WRN IA/SWRN MN. WILL MENTION AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES.

PCPN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM W TO E LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
KEPT SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT BEST
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO 18Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS WE EXPECTED AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY FOG. DRY OR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

PATTERN AT THE START OF THIS SHOULD HAVE A 500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM NM TO WI AND A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH FROM WRN CANADA DOWN INTO
CNTRL CA. THESE FEATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR PCPN SHOULD STAY TO OUR N AND W.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN WEST OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL 3 SITES STARTING THIS EVNG AT KOFK
AND OVERNIGHT AT KOMA/KLNK FOR THESE. MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THIS ACTIVITY. SFC CDFNT WILL BE MOVING SEWD ACRS THE TAF SITES
LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MRNG SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW AT ALL SITES.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR CIGS...BEHIND THE
FRONT. WILL INCLUDE THIS AT KOFK BUT WILL INCLUDE JUST A SCT DECK
FOR KOMA/KLNK AT THIS TIME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.