Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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516
FXUS63 KOAX 181223
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
723 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Surface high pressure over Wisconsin will continue to move
eastward. A warm front extends from central Nebraska into Western
South Dakota. Water vapor imagery indicates a short wave trogh
lifting out of the Colorado into the Central Plains.

Isentropic lift of moisture into central and eastern Nebraska and
forcing aloft, due to short wave lifting into the Plains, has
helped develop an extensive area of showers and thunderstorms
across central and eastern Nebraska. HRR model guidance suggests
that this activity will continue over eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa into the afternoon. After 21-22Z the activity will move out
of the area.

Tuesday should be mainly a warm and dry day. Aloft, a vigorous
shortwave trough is forecast to rotate around large upper low
over Alberta and British Columbia. This will drive a frontal
boundary across the OAX CWA Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Most of the energy from the shortwave trough will be over the
Dakotas and it is not clear how far south thunderstorm activity
will develop in eastern Nebraska. At this time, have oipted only
to put thunderstorms in northeast Nebraska and parts of
northwestern Iowa.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

After cold front moves across area on Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning, high pressure is forecast to build into Kansas and
Nebraska on Wednesdsay. Dry and seasonable weathe is expected to
continue until Friday afternoon when a deeper longwave trough
swings around the upper low. This will cause another northeast-
southwest orientated front to move eastward across Nebraska and
Kansas. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to occur near the
front through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 714 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Scattered showers and thunderstorms with IFR to MVFR cigs and
vsbys are expected at all sites through at least 18Z as upper
trough swings through the area. Conditions improve 18Z-00Z as
primary wave slides east of the area and weak subsidence follows
behind the wave. Potential for IFR cigs and vsbys redeveloping
again after 06Z with areas of fog.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Fobert



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