Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 101802
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
102 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

TODAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY ELEVATED SHOWERS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
DRY THIS AFTERNOON.  WINDS LOOK ON TRACK TO BE BREEZY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THIS PERIOD. LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD UNDERGO SOME
CHANGES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION EXPANDS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS CANADA. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE THEN RETROGRADES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE FLOW AMPLIFIES. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD A
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

TODAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. MAIN
AREA OF TSTMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW POPS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO MID MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT...BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 1.50 TO 2.00 RANGE AND
THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS SOME VALUES OVER 2.00 INCHES. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING MOISTURE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO A TSTM COMPLEX
SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION. FOR NOW TENDED TO FAVOR 00Z GFS FOR PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS. SO...THAT KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS FOR ABOUT THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH 85 TO 90 MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER 90S NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS MOSTLY 30 TO 50 PERCENT AS OUR AREA
WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN A FAVORABLE REGIME FOR PCPN...
ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE A
BIT COOLER WITH MID 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS PERIOD...THEN COOL TO WELL BELOW TYPICAL VALUES FOR MID
JULY. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN AIRMASS TO DROP
DOWN INTO THE AREA AS RIDGE AXIS ALOFT BUILDS OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. KEPT SOME MENTION OF PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WENT
WITH POPS 14 OR LESS AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

THERE IS AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH CU WEST OF LNK...FOR NOW HAVE
JUST SCT IN AS THESE SHOULD MIX AND LIFT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAFS. SCT
TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...THERE
IS STRONG H85 WAA AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE. FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED A MENTION AT KOFK AND KOMA. MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORM. WILL NEED TO ASSESS RAIN
CHANCES WITH EACH UPDATE. DID MENTION LLWS AT KOMA AND KLNK AND
MAY NEED TO ADD AT KOFK FROM 07-13Z. SOUTHEAST WIND 15-20KTS
SUSTAINED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 23-28KTS...THESE SHOULD
DECREASE TO 10-15KTS AFTER 01Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY


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