Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 252307
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
607 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Milder and drier conditions continue across the region. Subjective
12Z upper air analysis indicates weak upper-leve ridging over the 4
corners and mid-Atlantic regions, with an upper-level trough over
the Great Lakes and a weak trough just coming into the Pacific
Northwest.  An upper-level jet max extended from IA through the
Great Lakes and toward northern New England, with another upstream
jet max in the Canadian Prairie provinces.  850mb high was centered
right over eastern NE/southeast SD/western IA, with moisture shunted
south and east as drier air filled in.   Surface high at 19z also
was centered in eastern NE/southeast SD/western IA, with
predominantly clear skies.

Main forecast concern revolves around when chances for
showers/storms will return to the region.  Moisture will begin to
return to the High Plains of NE/SD/WY/CO tonight, but the associated
chances for showers/storms should remain well west of the area. Have
continued a dry forecast for tonight and most of Tuesday across the
area.  Did keep a very small area of slight chance pops in far
northeast NE on Tuesday afternoon and evening, but confidence in
that materializing is very, very low. Moisture return does shift
further east on Tuesday night, but upper-level shortwaves remain
west of the CWA through Wednesday morning, and have continued to
lean dry.  By Wednesday afternoon, shortwaves finally approach the
MO River valley, with some moisture in place. Showers and
thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon, especially further west
in central NE, and then are more likely to move across the CWA on
Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Shear profiles look awfully
weak, so severe weather threat would be limited, with some threat of
locally heavy rain.

Evolution on Thursday becomes more uncertain.  Morning convection
would hinder destabilization and later convection, so the best guess
is that chances of showers/storms would decrease through the day.
ECMWF and GFS have large differences in placement of a surface low
that would regenerate convection on Thursday.  Have left in chance
pops through the day for now, with low confidence.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Low confidence continues Thursday night into the weekend.  Upper-
level pattern remains northwesterly through around Saturday night or
Sunday, and any shortwaves in the flow could produce precipitation
provided the low-level environment isn`t already overturned.  Have
kept slight chance to chance pops through Saturday night/Sunday,
with temperatures near normal.  From around Sunday or Monday, an
upper-level ridge is progged to build back into the central US,
bringing rising heights, warming 700-mb temperatures, and of course,
warmer surface temperatures.  The forecast for Sunday through Monday
is dry, with temperatures poking back into the 90s by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

VFR conditions through the TAF forecast. Some patchy fog is
possible toward sunrise and may need to add with next TAF
issuance.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mayes
LONG TERM...Mayes
AVIATION...Zapotocny


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