Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 181133
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
533 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MORNING FORECAST FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH SEEMS ON
TRACK...AND HAVE IT ENDING ALL COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF MODERATE SNOW MOSTLY REMAINING IN
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS OF 09Z...WITH LIGHT
SNOW NORTH OF THAT AREA. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD GET BRUSHED BY
THESE HEAVIER BANDS...BUT DURATION SEEMS SHORT ENOUGH TO LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH QUICKLY THIS MORNING. STILL APPEARS
THAT AROUND 1 INCH WILL ACCUMULATE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS.

A LIGHTER BAND ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY WEAK
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM
ALBION TO NORFOLK. WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
MORNING HOURS AS WELL...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THERE.

THE OMAHA METRO AREA AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST CONTINUE TO HANG
ONTO THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WHICH SHOULD PROHIBIT THE SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND AT LEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. AND THEN BY THE TIME
IT DOES SATURATE DOWN THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUT...SO MAINLY
JUST A DUSTING IS EXPECTED IN THE OMAHA METRO AREA.

ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOUNDINGS THAT
SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH A SUPERCOOLED SATURATED LAYER...THE
VERTICAL MOTION NEEDED TO GENERATE DRIZZLE SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH TIME. FURTHERMORE...FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED
YET. WE REMOVED THE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

AFTER TODAY...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW. TEMPERATURES
UNDERGO A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH 40S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THIS PERIOD INVOLVES NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW...EACH ONE HAVING SOME OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL AGREEMENT IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE
DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT MOST OF THE RUNS SHOW A
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY WITH
AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.

ANALOGS OF THIS PATTERN...OR AT LEAST THE GFS SOLUTION FOR
MONDAY-TUESDAY...SUGGEST STRONG 850 WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
ALTHOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WINDY DAYS.

INTERESTING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND PRECIP TYPE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS WELL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP WITH THE TROF.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ARE
FORECAST BELOW FREEZING...SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHER AREAS SHOULD
JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCE
FOR RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. POPS GENERALLY UNDER 50 PERCENT AND ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN AVIATION ISSUES ARE LIGHT PRECIP AND THEN STRATUS. WEAK
SYSTEM IN KS/MO HAS SPREAD -SN TO KOFK/KLNK WITH MVFR VISBY...BUT
DRY AIR CONTS TO LIMIT PRECIP AT KOMA. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FLURRIES/-SN AT KOMA BETWEEN 12-15Z BUT IMPACTS TO
VISBY/CIGS WILL BE MINOR. -SN WILL END AT KOFK/KLNK OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS AS WELL. MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL START
TO ADVANCE NEWD THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR CIGS AT ALL 3 SITES BY
AFTN...THAT WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME
IFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE. WE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG AT ALL 3
SITES TONIGHT WITH HIGH LOW-LVL MOISTURE FM CURRENT -SN AND
MOISTURE INCREASE WITH THE S WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...


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