000
FXUS63 KOAX 022136
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
336 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY REMAINS THE FOCUS OF
THIS FORECAST.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND ARE
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REST OF OUR AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS IN THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...INDUCED BY STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND BY APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERN STREAM.
RESULTANT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO MOISTENING OF LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LEADING TO MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST WITH
TIME. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED OR WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 40S OVER A GOOD PART OF THE CWA. THIS WARMING COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD
STAY ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
PROMOTE WET BULB COOLING TO BELOW FREEZING SOME AREAS.

OVERALL...TREND OF LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS HAS
CONTINUED GIVEN INFORMATION FROM THIS MORNING AND NOON MODEL RUNS.
BULK OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOW LOOKS TO TRACK FROM NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...CLIPPING PARTS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA...SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
LOOK MOST PROBABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING OF LOW
LEVELS WILL BE ACHIEVED BY LATE EVENING WHEN SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL
BE PRESENT FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF OUR AREA. THEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MOISTENING OF MID LEVELS IN OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL
LEAD TO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW IN
FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS WE
HEAD SOUTH TOWARD INTERSTATE 80 WHERE WARM LAYER OFF THE SURFACE
RESIDES. THIS WILL GRADUALLY COOL TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RACING EAST BY LATE MORNING. MODEL AVERAGE
QPF AMOUNTS ARE QUITE LIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA...AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH A MAINLY DRIZZLE EVENT...PAINTING ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ALONG INTERSTATE 80. UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH QPF IS FORECAST IN OUR FAR NORTH...TRANSLATING TO ABOUT AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW.

GIVEN ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF DRIZZLE...AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING WHERE THAT OCCURS...HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE
HEADLINES HERE. ALSO...SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES THERE WILL ONLY DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A
BRIEF TIME WHEN DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST PROMINENT. THUS WILL KEEP
HEADLINES OUT OF THE FORECAST THERE AS WELL.

IF THERE IS A LITTLE MORE SNOW THAN FORECAST IN THE NORTH...BLOWING
SNOW MAY BE AN ISSUE TUESDAY MORNING AS NORTHWEST WINDS GUST WELL
OVER 30 MPH. OTHERWISE EXPECTING JUST A COLDER AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES FALL MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. AND A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
WEST AND SOUTH AS A WEAK WAVE DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 20S AS NORTH WINDS
CONTINUE. THEN ANOTHER NIGHT OF SINGLE DIGITS LOWS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY MORNING. BUT A WARMING TREND LOOKS TO BEGIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE.
HAVE HIGHS BACK INTO THE 30S THEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND. AS
RETURN FLOW FROM THURSDAY INTENSIFIES FRIDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO
APPROACH 50 IN MOST OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
RULE THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...BUT MAIN STORM TRACK IN FASTEST UPPER
FLOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST. WE COULD SEE GLANCING BLOWS OF FRONTAL
SYSTEMS DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT MAINLY WIND SHIFTS WILL
RESULT KEEPING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD MVFR THROUGH THE 04Z TO 06Z TIME
FRAME WHEN CIGS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 3000 FEET. STILL A
VERY MESSY WEATHER SITUATION SETTING UP FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
KANSAS BORDER REGION PUMPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALL THREE TAF SITES. THERE REMAINS A THREAT OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AND HAVE BROUGHT IN TEMPO GROUPS AT
EACH TAF SITE WITH A START TIME AROUND 06Z TO 07Z. KOFK BEING
FURTHER NORTH MAY ALSO SEE PERIODS OF ICE PELLETS BUT HAVE NOT
ADDED TO THEIR TAF AT THIS TIME. AFTER 12Z A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW.
KOFK AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE WE
ARE EXPECTING AMOUNTS LESS THAN THAT. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
SNOW WILL END AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GUSTS GREATER THAN 30KT AT KOFK POSSIBLY PRODUCING
POOR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MEYER