Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 282118
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
318 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Powerful stacked low pressure system centered this afternoon over
southeast North Dakota will begin to slowly move southeast
overnight dragging colder air into our region along with a small
chance for light pcpn in our far northern counties. In addition, a
fairly strong pressure gradient behind the system and favorable
mixing with unidirectional northwest flow will create blustery
conditions for the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitation type
will be a mix of rain and snow initially, with a change over to
all rain Tuesday afternoon, before mixing again and finally
changing over to all snow late Tuesday night. The far southern
edge of the precipitation will inch southward into Wednesday but
should remain north of Highway 30. Precipitation amounts look
light with total QPF only a couple hundredths of an inch which
would amount to less than a half inch of snow near the SD/NE
border.

Cold air advection will continue through mid to late week with
highs Wed and Thu only in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

The upper low finally begins to move out of the region Thursday
with another possible push of cold air advection which the models
have yet to agree upon. In any case, a 1030 mb high will build
overhead for Friday into Saturday. Models continue to diverge on
strength of an incoming upper level trough through the weekend
with the EC much more aggressive.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

VFR conditions through most of the period with winds the primary
concerns. West winds at TAF issuance at 11 to 24 knots, diminishing
by 23-00z to less than 12 knots. MVFR clouds do develop at KOFK by
29/14z. Some of the models are also hinting at some light snow at
KOFK 29/16-18z but probability is only 20% at this time.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...DeWald



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