000
FXUS63 KOAX 301149
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
549 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KOFK...KLNK.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013/

DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORTER TERM AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL BEFORE THE
PATTERN CHANGES OVER THE U.S. AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES PULLING ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD.

FOR TODAY...MILD CONDITIONS SETTING UP OVER THE FA AS CLEAR SKIES
AND MILD H85 TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW MOST HIGHS TO SURPASS THOSE SEEN
ON FRIDAY. A WEAK WIND SHIFT CROSSES AREA BUT IMMEDIATE COOLING
MINIMAL WITH WIND SHIFT MORE A FUNCTION OF MIXING MILD AIR DOWN
RATHER THAN COOL ADVECTION. WARMER NAM GUIDANCE WAS TOO COOL YDA
AND WOULD SUSPECT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST NAM READINGS
TODAY AND ADJUSTED UPWARD.

MORE CLOUDS AND COOL ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY SHOULD
PROVIDE COOLER READINGS ON SUNDAY...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS...KEPT THEM ON WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE. AS WAVE PASSES MOSTLY
TO THE NE OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY...MILD AIR RETURNS
TO THE FA AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING DOWN WEST COAST. SOME
SLIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA PROVIDING THE WARM
ADVECTION COULD ALSO PROMOTE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST READINGS TO
AT LEAST TO AS WARM AS TODAY IF NOT MORE SO ACROSS SRN 1/2.
SIMILAR TRENDS COULD PREVAIL ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS EVEN WARMER.
BOOSTED A BIT OVER THE SOUTH...BUT WAS A LITTLE HESITANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH SINCE 00Z GFS WAS A BIT AGGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
OUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SHOVING A PIECE OF THE ARCTIC AIR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

EITHER FORCING WAS MINIMAL OVER AREA OR LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
LIMITED SO THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMED UNLIKELY WITH EITHER
THE WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY OR NEAR INCREASING
BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH ON TUESDAY SO NO POPS WERE INCLUDED THRU
THEN.

AFTER THAT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN BOTH HOW QUICKLY WILL COLD
AIR ARRIVE AND HOW SUCCESSFUL WILL ANY DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT
OF UPPER TROUGH BE IN GENERATING PRECIP. GFS REMAINED A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN WED-THU PERIOD AND WAS MAIN INFLUENCE IN SMALL POPS
FORECAST WILL CONTAIN. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE A POST-FRONTAL
PERIOD THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS GENERATED...SO DIDN/T REALLY WANT
TO REMOVE WED NIGHT MOST AREAS OR FAR SE ON THU WHICH WAS
SUGGESTED BY DRIER 00Z ECMWF. TEMPS ON WED...ESPECIALLY SERN
ZONES...COULD GO EITHER WAY WHICH PROBABLY WAS SMOOTHED BY MODEL
BLEND BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CHANGE EITHER DIRECTION
YET. COLDER WEATHER IS PRETTY CERTAIN...HOWEVER...BY LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

CHERMOK

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOBERT