Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KOAX 261810
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
110 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT TERM UPDATES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
AND TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION...WINDS WITH FAST-MOVING
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...ALONG
WITH THE WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTH WILL LIMIT HIGHS IN THE NORTH
TO THE LOWER 40S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF COOL AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH WARM AIR IN THE LOWEST 2KFT. LOOK FOR COOLING TO
TAKE PLACE AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW ALOFT WITH A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW OR LIGHT RAIN AS IT FALLS. ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT...TRACE TO 0.05 AND THE MIX SHOULD MELT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEAL WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION COMES INTO PLAY IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT
WAVE. SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
FRIDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW. WARMER AIR RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GFS AND
EURO DIFFER ON TIMING OF FEATURE THIS RUN SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS
POSSIBLE. TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES DURING THE
PERIOD AS MORE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS LESS ENERGY. MAIN RESULT IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP SOLUTIONS WITH TREND TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOOK FOR THICKENING CLOUDS FL050-100 AND SOME -RASN OR -RA AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-02Z. SOME PATCHY MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ONCE THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT 4-11KTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.