Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 050541
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1141 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MINOR UPDATES TONIGHT TO TWEAK LOW TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM/NEARLY CALM
WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

IMPRESSIVE JETSTREAM LEVEL WINDS CONTINUED IN A BAND FROM KOAX
AND KTOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NORTHERN MAINE AT 12Z. A
MAX OF AROUND 180 KNOTS WAS NOTED AT 300 MB OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
MESSY SITUATION WILL OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AS ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET LIFTS EASTWARD
AND INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. CLOSER
TO HOME...SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN AREA OF
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
CENTER OF THAT HIGH SHOULD BUILD DOWN INTO WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT.
VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA
WITH DECREASING WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER. LOOK FOR LOWS
MAINLY FROM ABOUT ZERO TO 5 ABOVE. LOWS MAY BE A BIT WARMER TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY A BIT COLDER FROM NORTH OF
NORFOLK TO EAST OF OMAHA.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THURSDAY...BUT DUE TO A COLD
START AND WINDS ONLY SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR MIXING...LOOK FOR
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. WARMEST READINGS WILL OCCUR IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND COOLEST READINGS OVER WESTERN IOWA. BETTER
WARMING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM THE
DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN IOWA ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS. THIS PCPN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST
OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA. IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR DOWN INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IN THE
AFTERNOON...SO LOWERED PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY
DOWNWARD JUST SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SATURDAY...MAYBE A
DEGREE OR SO WARMER SOME SPOTS. BETTER WARMING ARRIVES FOR MONDAY
AS 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE. THIS
MILD AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AND AT LEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS START TO HAVE MORE THAN MINOR
DIFFERENCES BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WILL FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...SINCE IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN MODEL
AND ALSO FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

ALTHOUGH NOT READY TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION...
IT DOES SUGGEST SOME PCPN IS POSSIBLE BY DAY 8 (THURSDAY).

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10-15KTS AFTER 18Z. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
HOLD WINDS UP AT KOMA AFTER 00Z THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



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