000
FXUS64 KTSA 180810
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
310 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Currently monitoring a few clusters of strong/severe storms across
north central OK. This activity has developed north of the frontal
boundary along the nose of a 40+ kt low-level jet...and should
continue to drop southeast along the H85-H7 thermal gradient.
Additional showers/thunderstorms continue across southeastern
KS...and expect this activity to eventually sag into a larger
portion of northeast OK through the remainder of the night. Can`t
rule out some sporadic strong/severe wind gusts with any of the
convection.

Ongoing morning storms will serve to sharpen the frontal boundary
across the region...which should slow across southeast OK into the
afternoon. Expect additional storms to develop later this
afternoon...with some severe storms possible given the degree of
instability. Storms may persist well into the night over the far
southeastern portion of the forecast area...before finally sagging
south of the area by Monday morning.

Surface ridging and a drier low-level airmass will prevail into
the early part of the week...with warmer temperatures returning
later in the week as southerly flow develops. Could see some
mainly nocturnal convection Wednesday night across northeast
OK...but will keep PoPs low for now. Potential tropical
development in the Gulf of Mexico will further muddy the forecast
going into the weekend...with the ECMWF bringing the remnants into
southeast OK by next Saturday. Have included broadbrush chance
PoPs for now...and will further refine in later forecasts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  63  87  64 /  40  10   0   0
FSM   85  66  90  66 /  50  30  10   0
MLC   82  66  88  65 /  50  30  10   0
BVO   79  58  87  57 /  40  10   0   0
FYV   78  59  83  57 /  50  10   0   0
BYV   77  59  83  59 /  40  10   0   0
MKO   80  63  87  63 /  40  10   0   0
MIO   80  58  85  59 /  40  10   0   0
F10   79  64  87  64 /  40  10  10   0
HHW   87  68  89  67 /  40  50  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18