


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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750 FXUS64 KTSA 280528 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 - Hot and humid conditions will continue for the next week with heat indices of 95-102 F across the area. - Daily scattered showers and storms expected much of the next week with locally heavy rains and downburst winds the primary hazards. && .UPDATE... Issued at 804 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 The overall theme of the previous forecast remains intact, with scattered thunderstorms continuing across much of the area and at least some coverage likely to continue through the evening and into early Saturday morning. The only real change to the going forecast has been to adjust POPs slightly using the short-term blend to indicate a relative minimum in coverage late evening prior to another likely increase after midnight. Strong storms, producing wind gusts 40 to 50 mph, will remain possible, especially along and south of I-40 where the environment is largely undisturbed and downdraft CAPE is highest. Locally heavy rainfall remains a concern as well. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Scattered storms ongoing this afternoon are likely to persist well into the evening. Strong instability is in place along and south of Interstate 44 with steep low level lapse rates and deep moist profiles. Wet downbursts are likely with the strongest storms. Slow storm motions and intense rainfall rates will allow for locally heavy rains. Uncertainty remain in how long into the overnight hours storms can continue to develop but the moist profiles with minimal overnight capping may allow storms to persist into the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Friday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Near persistent pattern continues Saturday and Sunday with the plume of deep moisture remaining across the local area supporting good coverage of afternoon showers and storms. Expect daily heat index values to remain near seasonal normals. Weak cold front may move into the region on Monday and pushing slowly southward through Tuesday. The front would mark a focused corridor of higher showers and storms and may usher in slightly drier air across northern locations but this scenario remains uncertain. The pattern shows no large changes through late next week and the forecast will continue with daily shower and thunderstorm chances with temperatures near seasonal normals. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Mostly VFR conditions will prevail again across all terminals through the period, with the exception of any thunderstorm activity. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop later this morning across NE OK and shift eastward throughout the morning into NW AR by late morning/early afternoon. Otherwise, scattered to broken mid level cloud cover can be expected with some gusty southerly winds around 20 knots possible this afternoon for NE OK sites. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 91 76 94 75 / 40 20 20 40 FSM 91 74 95 75 / 50 10 40 10 MLC 91 75 93 75 / 30 0 20 10 BVO 90 72 93 71 / 40 30 30 50 FYV 87 72 91 72 / 60 20 50 30 BYV 86 71 91 72 / 60 20 60 30 MKO 88 74 92 74 / 50 10 30 30 MIO 88 72 92 72 / 50 30 50 50 F10 90 74 92 73 / 40 10 20 30 HHW 90 73 92 74 / 20 0 20 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...04