Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 232043
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
243 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOLID BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE BETTER LOW-MID
LEVEL COLD FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LIES. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO
DEVELOPS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS FAR NE OK
AND NW AR. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE KS AND MO BORDERS
FOR THIS EVENING. AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES BY...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY. THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW THIS EVENING
WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GET GUSTY ENOUGH TO
FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NE OK. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT A
BREEZY NIGHT AHEAD.

AFTER A WARM DAY TODAY...TEMPS WILL TAIL OFF TO START THE WEEK.
THE COOLEST MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE TUESDAY MORNING. WARMING
TREND THEN KICKS IN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUES INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. POOR MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECMWF. THIS MODEL
HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE DEGREE OF UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS FOR DAYS AND DAYS...LEAVING OUR AREA WITH DRASTICALLY
DIFFERENT FORECASTS FROM DAY TO DAY. AFTER SUGGESTING A FRONT FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...IT HAS NOW FLOPPED BACK TO A WARM...LESS
AMPLIFIED...MORE PROGRESSIVE REGIME. THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT
DROPPING IN BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...SO STAYED WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS TOWARD DAY 7 AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT IT STILL APPEAR
THAT HOLIDAY TRAVEL WILL BE A GO...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR MANY OF
US.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  30  51 /  40   0   0  10
FSM   39  56  31  53 /  20   0   0  10
MLC   37  58  31  54 /  20   0   0  10
BVO   35  55  24  50 /  50   0   0  10
FYV   34  50  25  47 /  50   0   0  10
BYV   35  47  26  46 /  70  10   0  10
MKO   36  57  29  51 /  30   0   0  10
MIO   34  51  26  47 /  80   0   0  10
F10   37  57  31  52 /  30   0   0  10
HHW   39  60  33  58 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





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