000
FXUS64 KTSA 251557
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1057 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO KEEP HOURLY GRIDS CURRENT.
GW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS YIELDING PERIODIC MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SE OK / WESTERN AR THIS MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A TREND TOWARD
VFR FOR ALL SITES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HEAT AND HUMIDITY IMPACTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...WORSENING
OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER MUCH ANTICIPATED COOLDOWN
AFFECTS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. FOR TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY NEAR 105
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN
TODAY TO WARRANT CONVERTING THE GOING EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING AT THIS POINT...BUT KNOWING THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WELL
WORTH ENHANCED PUBLIC AWARENESS...WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY WEST
OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO OKMULGEE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR TULSA...OSAGE...AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY...WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY OVER THE
WEEKEND...INCLUDING IN COUNTIES THAT ARE NOT COVERED BY TODAY/S
ADVISORY....AS CONDITIONS WORSEN.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING SUNDAY...AND ALSO NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
PROBABLE FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMEWHERE NEAR TO SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 DURING THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
COULD KEEP PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN EVENTUALLY SETS UP. HAVE
GONE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ON THE COOL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77 100  79 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   93  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   93  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   98  72 101  74 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   89  69  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   90  71  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   94  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   94  74  99  74 /   0   0  10  10
F10   95  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   93  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-
     OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05