Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KTSA 142346
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
546 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST VALID PERIOD ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART AFTER
06Z BUT WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS MAY RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY...MAINLY AT THE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LEADING BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE FAR WRN PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE NOTED NEW DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT OVER
WCNTRL OK DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE FOR
SOME INTENSIFICATION IN LEADING BAND OF STORMS AS WELL AS DRYLINE
ACTIVITY FROM LAST AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE OK WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF MODEST INSTABILITY/GOOD
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS REALIZED. SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING INTO WRN AR THIS EVENING...LIKELY IN A WEAKENED STATE...AND
SHOULD SHIFT E OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z.

MAIN COOL SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH BREEZY WLY/NWLY
WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE IN BY
TUESDAY...WITH EVEN CHILLIER AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH EVOLUTION OF SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST. EXPECT AN
UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A LEAD WAVE EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. ECMWF/CMC KEEP THE NEXT WAVE
OPEN/MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE STRONGER/CLOSED OFF GFS LATE NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL AS A FARTHER S QPF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE CONTINUED POOR
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...WILL GO WITH A BLEND FOR NOW WHICH
MAINTAINS THE GENERAL CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTS ALL LIQUID FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A WINTRY CHANGEOVER FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

EXPECT SEASONALLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.