000
FXUS64 KTSA 211528
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1028 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
surface obs show both temps and dew points running 3-5 degrees or
so less compared to same time yesterday. 12z sounding at oun also
showing cooler low level thermal profile. still hot this afternoon
but not as bad as we have seen. overall forecast trending well and
no updates planned at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 630 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Some patchy fog will continue for the first hour or two of the
forecast period. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through
tonight with light winds.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 257 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The good news is that the temperatures will be cooler than those that
were recorded yesterday and that the surface dew points will also be
lower. The bad news is that the high temperatures this afternoon will
generally be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Heat
headlines do not look necessary Today.

The unseasonably warm temperatures will be the main concern for the
remainder of the work week as high pressure at the surface and aloft
prevails. However, temperatures will continue the slow downward trend.

After the hot and dry work week, a wet and cooler weekend looks to be on
tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as an upper level low
currently just off the Oregon coast gains strength as it moves across
the rockies and makes slow progress into the plains as the upper level
pattern becomes much more amplified. A southwesterly flow aloft will persist
across the area over the weekend and into early next week which will
bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the region. Heavy
rain will be the biggest concern during this time as the southwesterly flow
aloft taps into Pacific moisture. 1 to 3 inches of rain will be common
across the area over the weekend with locally higher amounts possible.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  68  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   93  66  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   94  66  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   94  65  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   89  60  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   89  62  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   93  65  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   92  66  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
F10   94  67  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   93  66  93  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14