000
FXUS64 KTSA 051141
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
541 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE AS
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
LATER THIS MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION BANDS. SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST CENTRAL
AR...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SLEET AND SNOW LIKELY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WELL ADVERTISED  WINTER EVENT UNFOLDING ABOUT AS
EXPECTED. A FEW SURPRISES CERTAIN TO UNFOLD ALSO.

CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST INCLUDE:
START TIME OF THE  WSW  FOR AREAS FROM I44 NORTHWEST
CHANGES TO 11 AM FROM 6 AM. FIRST PRECIP EXPECTED TO
REACH TULSA ABOUT NOON.

INCLUDED  PITTSBURG  LATIMER  AND HASKELL IN THE ICE
STORM WARNING  SINCE  SOUTHEAST PITTSBURG  SOUTHEAST
HASKELL AND MUCH OF LATIMER EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 0.25
UP TO 0.50 FREEZING RAIN BEFORE MAJOR SLEET ARRIVES.
ALSO MATCHES BETTER WITH DOWNSTREAM WFO.

MAX SNOW TOTALS DIMINISHED SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR SLEET.

COMPLEX FORECAST  WITH NUMEROUS VARIABLES WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DECIDE HEAVY SNOW...HEAVY SLEET AREAS AND
ICE ACCUMULATION. USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH SLANTED
TOWARD A BROAD SLEET SOLUTION... DUE TO NEAR PERFECT
TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR SLEET. ARRIVED AT HEAVY SNOW
BAND AROUND SIX INCHES FROM OKFUSKEE - BENTON COUNTY.
THIS BAND MAY CONTAIN AN INCH OR TWO OF SLEET. HEAVY
SLEET OF UPWARDS OF AN INCH AND A HALF FROM NORTHERN
PITTSBURG COUNTY TO CARROL COUNTY ARKANSAS.  MAXIMUM
FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION...UPWARDS OF AN INCH FROM
CENTRAL CHOCTAW ACROSS SOUTHEAST  PUSHMATAHA THROUGH
SOUTHERN MOST LEFLORE.  GET THE GENERATORS READY FOR
LONG TERM POWER OUTAGES.

SOUTHEAST AREAS RECEIVE GOOD PORTION OF TOTAL PRECIP
TODAY WHILE NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. PRECIP ENDS
WEST-EAST FRIDAY.  HEADLINES MAY BE DROPPED FOR MUCH
OF EASTERN OK BEFORE 00Z EXPIRATION TIME.

AFTER A QUIET..COLD SATURDAY UPPER LOW BRINGS CHANCE
OF MORE WINTRY PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD RESTRICT IMPACT TO NUISANCE RANGE.

JUST COLD MOST OF NEXT WEEK. IDEAL CLEAR CALM NIGHT
WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO ZERO TO 10 DEGREE
RANGE BY DAWN TUESDAY.  A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PLACES THAT RECEIVE SNOW IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  18  24   7 /  70  90  70   0
FSM   36  24  27   9 / 100 100  80  10
MLC   32  21  25   8 / 100 100  70   0
BVO   27  17  24   8 /  40  70  50   0
FYV   29  19  23   5 / 100 100  70   0
BYV   29  18  22   4 / 100 100  80   0
MKO   30  20  24   6 / 100 100  70   0
MIO   27  18  23   7 /  70  80  70   0
F10   29  19  24   7 /  90 100  70   0
HHW   37  25  29  14 /  90 100  70  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ064.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18