000
FXUS64 KTSA 230221
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
921 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S REMAINED COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. HEAT INDICES HAVE
ALSO COME DOWN SOME WITH VALUES IN THE RANGE FORM THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S STILL BEING REPORTED OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. TO THE NORTH
OF THE CWA...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINED POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST RUNS OF THE LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL AS
WELL AS THE HRRR TRY TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND PUSH THEM INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT. THE HRRR RUNS SAYS THAT
THERE SHOULD ALREADY BE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THROUGH LOOKING AT LATEST SATELLITE DATA...THERE SEEMS BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. THE CAP OVER THE REGION LOOKS TO
BE NOT QUITE AS STRONG COMPARED TO OVER KANSAS THIS EVENING AND
THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CWA. THUS...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT ENTERS THE CWA AND INTERACTS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY. EVENING UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK POPS/WX A BIT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

EVEN WITH THE WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES AS IS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  98  72  94 /  10  30  10   0
FSM   73  96  72  93 /  20  50  20  10
MLC   71  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10
BVO   71  95  68  94 /  10  30  10   0
FYV   68  90  67  88 /  20  50  20  10
BYV   69  90  65  86 /  20  50  10  10
MKO   72  96  71  94 /  20  30  10  10
MIO   72  92  68  91 /  20  50  10  10
F10   73  96  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
HHW   71  95  74  96 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-
     OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ074.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....07