000
FXUS64 KTSA 261704
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1204 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Isolated
thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon and into the
overnight that could affect the NE OK and far NW AR terminals, but
the chance of impacts is too low to mention for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1025 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Partly cloudy skies and below normal afternoon temperatures will
prevail today. The main update to the forecast has been to
afternoon temperatures across parts of northeast Oklahoma, where
current temperatures are only sitting a few degrees below the
inherited forecast values. The low thunderstorm chances this
afternoon near the Kansas and Missouri borders continue to look
appropriate given the instability mesoanalysis and output from the
HRRR. Updates already out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 608 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR cigs to prevail through the period. Bulk of thunderstorm
coverage this evening and overnight likely to remain northeast of
the NE OK and NW AR TAF sites...with coverage low enough to
preclude a mention at those sites. Remaining elements to remain
VFR through the TAF period as well.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Light showers/sprinkles across parts of southeast Oklahoma and
western Arkansas should either dissipate or move out of the area
by sunrise. Will continue low pops this afternoon and tonight
across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a
shortwave passing to our northeast pushes a weak frontal boundary
south into the area.

Warmer and more humid air will make a return as the week
progresses. A frontal boundary will approach the area from the
north late in the week, and will remain in the vicinity through
the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany
this boundary, with the greatest precipitation coverage likely to
be Friday. Storm chances will lessen with time late this weekend
into early next week as upper heights begin to rise. Have leaned
towards the ECMWF at the end of the forecast period as the foot or
more of rain that the GFS dumps on parts of our forecast area
seems just a wee bit excessive.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22