000
FXUS64 KTSA 021741
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1141 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AND OVERTAKE THE MVFR CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY PROB30 GROUPS
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND VCSH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED FROM THE NEARLY
STATIONARY WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CA/NORTHERN BAJA CONTINUED TO SPREAD
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS SHIFTING EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR WINDS
TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. SOME PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE HAD DEVELOPED OVER
PARTS OF CWA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE CWA...WITH THE GREATER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THOUGH...IF THE LATEST IN-HOUSE LOCAL WRF
MODEL VERIFIES THIS AFTERNOON...THE BETTER CHANCES COULD BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS AND
FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA. PRECIP CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA
AND THE WAVE OUT WEST ALL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION.

CLOUDY SKIES AND EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL AID IN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING UPDATE WILL TO BE TWEAK
HOURLY POP/WX/TEMP/WIND AFTERNOON GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND
THE MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  36  59  25 /  20  10  30  80
FSM   42  39  55  38 /  20  20  70  90
MLC   41  39  60  30 /  20  20  40  90
BVO   39  36  54  24 /  20  10  30  50
FYV   40  36  55  24 /  20  30  70  90
BYV   39  35  54  22 /  20  20  60  90
MKO   41  35  59  27 /  20  20  40  90
MIO   39  36  53  21 /  20  10  40  60
F10   40  37  60  26 /  20  20  30  90
HHW   43  40  63  41 /  30  30  60  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20