Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 211138
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
538 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will continue through much of the day with
scattered light rain spreading into KMLC/KFSM sites by early
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop by late afternoon
through mid evening from southeast OK into northwest AR with brief
aviation impacts possible. Overnight widespread rains and lower
ceilings will focus from NE OK into NW AR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 336 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Compact but potent upper low at the nose of strong Pacific jet was
moving across the desert SW this morning, and will be the primary
weather feature in this forecast cycle. Low level flow expected to
increase out of the south today in response to approaching system,
which will begin to draw moisture northward into at least western
AR and far eastern OK, particularly this afternoon. Temperatures
will again be well above normal despite increasing clouds, but
held down a tad compared to yesterday. Instability should be
sufficient for a few thunderstorms to develop from southeast OK
into west central AR by this afternoon, a trend which has been
depicted by last several runs of HRRR/RAP. Main threat for any
severe storms will remain farther east where deeper moisture
resides.

Compact low will continue to move east tonight, taking a track
near the Red River and quickly moving into the Mississippi valley
by Sunday afternoon. Widespread rain along with continues threat
of isolated thunder, should become focused in favored zone of
lift, generally along and north of I-40. Precip will quickly shift
east of the forecast area by afternoon with decreasing clouds and
gusty NW winds, but lack of any cold air will allow temps to
rebound well into the 50s.

Next upper level system will take a more northern track, but as it
does will induce a tight pressure gradient and result in gusty
southwest winds. This track also conducive for punch of much lower
dew points surging east during the day and temperatures warming
to much above normal levels. Fire weather concerns will be
heightened during this period and should dew points mix down as
much as 00z ECMWF suggests, a significant fire weather day could
be setting up across parts of eastern OK.

Upper level flow will amplify in wake of this system for the
latter half of the week with ridge axis along the west coast and
deepening eastern trough. In general, dry conditions should
prevail in northwest flow regime with temperatures cooling back to
near normal levels, with no significant intrusions of cold air
through next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  45  56  33 /  10  80  50   0
FSM   69  48  56  36 /  40  70  70   0
MLC   68  45  58  35 /  20  60  50   0
BVO   62  44  55  30 /  10  80  40   0
FYV   65  45  53  32 /  40  80  80   0
BYV   66  47  51  33 /  30  80  80   0
MKO   66  45  56  34 /  20  70  60   0
MIO   65  45  53  31 /  20  90  60   0
F10   66  45  57  34 /  20  60  50   0
HHW   68  45  60  37 /  40  60  30   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07


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