Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 210957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDINESS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SHOWERS
DEVELOP AT THIS TIME AND THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE
SOMEWHAT AS SUNRISE APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR EL PASO BY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING EAST
AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX. THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC FRONTAL
PASSAGES CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO BE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER
RIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING EACH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND THEN QUCIKLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN ADVANCE OF
THE SUCCEEDING FRONT. THE FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL PRECLUDE
ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH...THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  54  62  54 /  50  50  70  50
FSM   55  50  62  53 /  50  50  60  70
MLC   61  56  61  54 /  40  60  70  70
BVO   55  51  62  53 /  60  50  60  50
FYV   54  50  59  53 /  50  50  60  70
BYV   50  47  60  52 /  40  40  50  70
MKO   56  52  61  54 /  40  60  80  60
MIO   55  51  61  53 /  40  40  60  60
F10   59  55  61  54 /  40  60  80  60
HHW   62  54  63  55 /  60  70  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





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