000
FXUS64 KTSA 130232
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
932 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING...LATEST LOCAL WRF
...INCLUDING 00Z NAM HOLD OFF ON INITIAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. DID INCREASE WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND FROPA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

NO MAJOR TIMING CHANGES ON UPCOMING SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.  STILL
EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP JUST WEST OF PNC
NEAR TRIPLE POINT AROUND MID AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE MODESTLY INCREASED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...
IN INSTABILITY AXIS AND JUST NORTH OF UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX.
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED INTO
SUNDAY INCLUDING SPECIFIC TIMING/THREATS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAIN POSSIBLE.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12