Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 261723
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1223 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms ongoing and spreading into NE OK may pass
near terminal sites over the next few hours...otherwise widespread
low VFR to MVFR ceilings will prevail. Widespread convection
spreads across the region this evening through early Wed morning
with periodic IFR conditions possible. Expect clearing and VFR
later Wed morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A few thunderstorms have developed this morning over central OK
and they are likely to gradually spread northeastward. Steep lapse
rates will support at least an isolated chance of large hail
potential however these storms are not the primary severe weather
focus for today.

Storms are expected to develop along the dryline from south
central KS into N TX and spread eastward from the evening into the
overnight hours. The preceding environment is strongly unstable
and will become increasingly sheared with time. Severe weather is
expected as the storms pass through eastern OK and eventually into
western AR later tonight. The likelihood of numerous cell mergers
and backed mid level winds may limit the tornadic potential
somewhat...with more favorable winds from late evening into the
overnight hours from SE OK into western AR. By this time more
linear convective segments are likely more typical with sporadic
..yet not zero tornadic...potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  64  80  52 /  30  80  10   0
FSM   83  65  85  55 /  10  80  30  20
MLC   80  64  82  53 /  20  80  10   0
BVO   83  62  79  49 /  30  80  10   0
FYV   81  62  78  49 /  10  80  30  20
BYV   83  64  80  52 /  10  80  50  20
MKO   81  63  81  52 /  20  80  20   0
MIO   83  63  80  51 /  20  80  20  10
F10   80  63  80  53 /  30  80  10   0
HHW   82  65  83  56 /  20  80  20  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07



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