000
FXUS64 KTSA 261044
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
544 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
ANY MORNING HAZE/FOG QUICKLY LIFTING AFTER SUNRISE. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE OK/KS STATE LINE TOWARD 12Z WITH LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES NEARING KBVO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HEAT AND HUMIDITY IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
TOMORROW...BEFORE ANOTHER MUCH ANTICIPATED COOLDOWN ARRIVES FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. ONLY CHANGE TO THE GOING HEAT
HEADLINES WILL BE TO EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND ALSO ADD FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH
SOME SPOTS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD 105 PLUS HEAT INDICES
THAN WERE SEEN YESTERDAY. WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO ENTER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHOULD POOL AHEAD OF IT...LIKELY
LEADING TO A FEW SPOTS WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 110 SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL CONTINUING UNTIL IT CLEARS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY. IN TYPICAL MID SUMMER FASHION...AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS WOULD HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS
DUE TO THE HEAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT BEGINNING MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH ALL OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD BE
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
BE...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE EXHIBITED A NORTHWARD
SHIFT...PLACING IT MORE WITHIN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS THAN IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS LIKE LAST
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  78  97  70 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   96  74  98  73 /   0   0  20  20
MLC   98  74  98  72 /   0   0  10  20
BVO  100  75  95  64 /   0  10  20  10
FYV   94  71  93  66 /   0  10  20  20
BYV   95  73  92  66 /   0  10  20  10
MKO   96  74  97  70 /   0  10  20  20
MIO   96  74  92  67 /   0  10  20  10
F10   97  75  97  71 /   0   0  20  20
HHW   96  74  98  75 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...07