922
FXUS64 KAMA 122319
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
619 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Cumulus clouds have developed in northeast New Mexico into southeast
Colorado along a surface trough.  With surface temperatures in the
mid 90`s along this trough, there may be just enough instability to
produce a shower or thunderstorm in our northwest CWA along this
trough late this afternoon and evening.  Storms may produce strong
gusty winds and small hail.

Thunderstorms will be possible again on Thursday, mainly across the
northern CWA.  This is where the best convergence will be along a
surface trough.  Storms will likely be slow moving as the winds
aloft are expected to be light.

Southerly winds will be common in the 10 to 20 mph range with
occasional higher gusts tonight through Thursday night.

Many places may reach 100 degrees or higher on Thursday we may need
to consider heat advisories for Palo Duro Canyon and parts of the
Canadian River Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Friday should have our best chances for showers and thunderstorms
for the Panhandles. The best chances will be for the western and
northern combined Panhandles as an H500 trough moves ENE across
northern NM and southern CO before exiting the northern Panhandles
by Saturday morning. Although a good surface of lift with the
trough is present, overall CAPE and shear is quite anemic. Could
see a strong storm or two with strong wind gusts and small hail,
but a very low chance of severe thunderstorms are expected at this
time. Timing will have to be update with rain chances though,
since the latest 12/12Z model and numerical data are not in an
accord.

Depending on which model data you assess, the main trough axis
will slowly move through the northern Panhandles with the main
amplitude axis near PDC as it moves east. This area of lift could
provide additional diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
(around 20-30% chance) favoring the central and eastern
Panhandles. Some storms could also be strong at times.

We dry out Sunday through early next week before our next rain
chances may come the end of the long term forecast period. High
temperatures throughout the long term forecast period will be
above average for mid June.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail at all TAF sites over the next
24 hours with winds around 10-15kts out of the south. KDHT has a
storm to the north, moving very slowly. Maybe a 10 to 15% chance
of terminal impacts around the 0030-0200z time period. Confidence
not high enough for a mention at this time. Possible storms for
KDHT and KGUY Thursday evening towards the end of the TAF period,
but again, likely will not have high enough confidence to prevail,
and will deal with amendments if necessary.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                67 100  68  96 /   0   0  10  10
Beaver OK                  69 105  67  99 /   0  10  20   0
Boise City OK              64 102  65  96 /  20  10  10  30
Borger TX                  69 105  70 101 /   0  10  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              67 103  68  99 /  10  10  10  10
Canyon TX                  65  99  66  94 /   0   0  10  10
Clarendon TX               64  96  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 63 102  64  97 /  20  10  10  20
Guymon OK                  66 104  66  98 /   0  10  20  10
Hereford TX                66 101  67  95 /   0   0  10  10
Lipscomb TX                67 102  68  98 /   0   0  10   0
Pampa TX                   67 100  67  95 /   0   0  10   0
Shamrock TX                66  97  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              66  97  67  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...89