268
FXUS63 KDDC 251536
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1036 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected southeast of Dodge
  City Saturday evening. Only one or two storms are expected,
  but localized high end severe weather is possible.

- Strong southwest winds and blowing dust west of US 283
  Saturday afternoon.

- Sunday and Monday will be dry, with rain chances returning
  Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air
analysis reveals a modestly amplified trough is moving across
the far western CONUS, with associated surface lee cyclogenesis
already beginning across southeast CO. As this feature continues
east during the day Saturday and ejects onto the High Plains by
00Z Sunday, the surface trough will deepen to ~992-mb, with
strengthening low-level flow around it over the southern and
central plains. While there remains considerable uncertainty
surrounding the degree of moisture return, all guidance agrees
at least mid-50s dewpoints will advance northward ahead of a
sharpening N-S oriented dryline that will mix east to around
US-283 by mid-afternoon. As forcing for ascent increases ahead
of the upper level wave, the modest cap that will be in place
(+9-11C at 700-mb) will likely be breached, allowing isolated,
high-based convective initiation along the dryline during the
22-00Z time frame. The environment ahead of the dryline will be
characterized by at least 1000-1500 J/Kg of CAPE and 50-60 kts
of bulk shear, which will support updraft organization into a
primarily supercellular storm mode posing a risk for all severe
hazards. The tornado threat is highly conditional on moisture
quality, which appears likely to be initially insufficient.
However, as supercells reach our eastern zones (mainly along and
east of US-183), continued moist advection on the shoulders of
an intensifying low-level jet may draw low-60s to perhaps
mid-60s dewpoints into our area, fostering an uptick in tornado
potential. Given impressive low-level curvature in forecast
hodographs and the expected discrete storm mode, a strong
tornado cannot be ruled out. Therefore, the Storm Prediction
Center`s Moderate Risk (level 4 of 5) over areas east of US-283
and south of KS-96 appears warranted.

By 04Z Sunday, all convection will clear southwest KS, and a
cold front will begin to move through our area behind the
departing surface low. Northwesterly winds in the wake of the
front will usher in cooler air, although DNVA on the western
periphery of the exiting upper level trough will support clear
skies all day Sunday, and afternoon highs will still reach the
low 80s north to the upper 80s/near 90 south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

At the beginning of the long term period, medium range ensembles
agree weak upper level ridging will begin to take form over the
western CONUS, and move slowly east through Tuesday. This
pattern will support dry, warm conditions across the central
plains, with afternoon highs in the 80s to low 90s Monday and
Tuesday. Precipitation chances return Tuesday evening through
the end of the long term period as weak vorticity lobes crest
the upper level ridge Wednesday and Thursday, followed by an
approaching upper level trough on Friday. The GEFS is the most
bullish in terms of QPF, with probability of QPF > 0.1" at or
above 50-60% through Friday. While the ECMWF EPS is notably
quieter, the probability of QPF > 0.1" still reaches the 50-70%
range on a few occasions, mainly Wednesday evening and Thursday
evening. This more active pattern will also be associated with
temperatures near or just below normal for most areas, with
afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s along and east of
US-83.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1036 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR will continue through this TAF cycle. Intense S/SW winds are
expected at all airports this afternoon through 00z Sun, gusting
35-37 kts. Areas of blowing dust may limit visibility locally
near GCK/LBL/DDC. Any thunderstorms Saturday evening are
expected to remain east of the airports, with no mentions in
this TAF issuance. SW winds will subside some, but remain
elevated and gusty, at sunset, then trend elevated NWly behind a
surface low expected to be in central Kansas at 12z Sun. After
15z Sun, VFR/SKC will continue, with strong NW winds gusting
30-32 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Turner