339
FXUS64 KFWD 140000
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
700 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening Through Tuesday Night/

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing
and will remain possible through the evening as lingering surface
boundaries move around across the region. So far, storms have more
or less struggled to develop...likely due to large-scale subsidence
behind the cold front that moved through earlier this afternoon.
While it is unlikely for any one location to have a storm move
over, the potential for isolated instances of severe weather
warrants a mention nonetheless. Hail will be the primary threat,
along with the potential for minor flooding issues across
portions of Central Texas. Speaking of that, the Flood Watch will
be allowed to expire as any remaining convection wanes just after
sunset tonight.

Otherwise, a brief period of rain-free conditions with clearing
skies will return to the entire region through the middle of the
week. Afternoon highs will warm into the upper 80s and low 90s on
Tuesday as a result, with lingering cirrus through Tuesday.
Overnight lows on Tuesday night will be mild, hovering around the
low to mid 60s right along with the dew points.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 125 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024/
/Wednesday and Beyond/

Rain-free conditions are expected through at least Wednesday
afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s
across much of the region Wednesday afternoon with a few locations
across the DFW Metroplex and the Big Country exceeding 90 degrees.
Scattered convection is expected to develop along a sharpening
dryline well west of our forecast area late Wednesday
afternoon/evening gradually shifting east toward our western
counties late Wednesday evening/early overnight. We will carry a
low end potential for severe weather primarily west of Highway 281
late Wednesday, however the loss of daytime heating and the
overnight increase in convective inhibition should cause this
activity to weaken as it approaches our forecast area.

Strong warm/moist advection will transport quality low-level
moisture over North and Central Texas by Thursday with persistent
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a mid/upper-level trough
streaming Pacific moisture overhead. A dryline will impinge on
our western zones by Thursday afternoon as a cold front approaches
from the north. Increasing synoptic-scale ascent associated with
the approaching shortwave trough and strong theta-E advection
should set the stage for multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms across the region in the Thursday-Friday timeframe.
Locally heavy rainfall could lead to renewed flooding concerns,
especially across our water-logged Central Texas and Brazos Valley
counties where guidance is highlighting 1.7-1.9" PWATs
(approaching daily climatological maxima). This area currently
contains a 30-40% chance of observing an additional 2+" of
rainfall through Friday. The severe weather potential seems a bit
more uncertain and will largely depend upon the ultimate position
of the surface and upper-level features. It is worth noting that
instability and wind shear look to be sufficient for at least a
low end threat for severe weather in the Thursday-Friday
timeframe, but continue to monitor the forecast over the next few
days as we further refine more specific location/timing details.

Model guidance starts to diverge in solutions regarding how long
the rain will stick around beyond Friday, but there is enough of a
signal to carry at least slight chances for rain into the first
half of the weekend. Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest
mid-/upper-level ridging will develop overhead toward the Day 7-9
time frame, possibly bringing us a break in the rain. On the other
hand, this feature would cause temperatures to increase with
upper 80s to mid-90s possible by early next week (5 to 10 degrees
above-average for this time of year).

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Concerns...Low Chance For Thunderstorm Potential This Evening.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
currently ongoing along several surface boundaries that are
scattered about the region east of the TAF sites. Temporary
impacts to arrivals heading toward the D10 airspace through the
Bonham and Cedar Creek cornerposts will continue through the next
couple of hours, with convective activity waning after sunset.

Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period
with light northerly winds. Southerly flow will return across the
region into Tuesday evening, with a few passing cirrus clouds.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  87  66  90  69 /   5   0   0   0  20
Waco                62  84  64  86  67 /  20   0   0   0  20
Paris               60  82  59  87  66 /  20   0   0   0  10
Denton              59  85  63  89  67 /   5   0   0   0  30
McKinney            60  84  62  88  67 /  10   0   0   0  20
Dallas              63  87  65  90  69 /  10   0   0   0  20
Terrell             62  84  62  88  67 /  20   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           64  87  65  89  68 /  20   0   0   0  20
Temple              62  87  64  88  67 /  20   0   0   0  20
Mineral Wells       59  86  64  90  66 /   0   0   0   0  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ135-146>148-
158>162-174-175.

&&

$$