984
FXUS63 KDDC 051659
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1159 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some of the hottest temperatures so far of the young summer
  season are expected Wednesday, as high pressure builds over
  SW KS.

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry Wednesday and Thursday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return Friday, and
  continue through the upcoming weekend.

- A cooling trend is expected Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Midnight infrared satellite imagery revealed a quiet early
summer night across SW KS, with a large ongoing MCS across
Oklahoma. Light NEly winds at midnight will trend light and
variable through sunrise Wednesday, as a weak 1012 mb surface
high settles over SW KS. With the light wind regime and moist
soils/standing water from previous rains, at least some areas of
stratus will develop through Wednesday morning, along with
reduced visibility in BR/patchy fog. Fog is not expected to be
dense or widespread, but with so much standing water/wet soil
available, locally dense radiation fog is possible. Stratus and
areas of reduced visibility will be most favored over the
central CWA, from GCK to DDC.

Any fog/stratus will dissipate rapidly in the early June
sunshine by 10 am. All model guidance continues to show strong
warming Wednesday, with a net increase of 5-7C at 850 mb over
Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures of 90-95 are expected, and
prefer the trend in guidance to shave these values down 1-2
degrees given 1) temperature forecasts have been consistently a
few degrees too warm the past few days and 2) evaporation from
standing water and wet topsoils will have a 1-2 degree cooling
effect. Still, breezy SWly downslope will deliver the hottest
day so far in 2024 for many.

592 dm upper high centered near the Four Corners 7 pm Wednesday
will move little through the short term, centered near Santa Fe
7 pm Thursday. While midlevel heights climb appreciably, a dry
minor cold front will bring an easterly component wind shift
Thursday, and bring 5-7C of cooling at 850 mb in the lower
atmosphere. Afternoon temperatures will be trimmed back to the
upper 80s for most, with areas adjacent to Oklahoma near 90. All
grids are dry for all zones for the short term period,
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Stronger south winds will return Friday, stronger than NBM
guidance, ushering temporarily hotter temperatures back into
SW KS. With the improved southerly mixing, the dryline will
reestablish during the afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and
high instability east of the dryline, and hot temperatures in
the upper 90s to near 100 west of the dryline. Convergence along
this surface boundary will be the trigger for any isolated
thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening, assuming the capping
inversion is not prohibitive. Forcing for initiation is not
obvious, but with the 592 dm high sinking southward into Texas,
NWly midlevel flow will increase to 30-40 kts, atop increasing
SEly winds late, given adequate shear to support organized
convection. With high instability (CAPE > 3000 J/kg) any
sustained supercells will be capable of large hail. Highest
chance category pops favor Friday evening, when 00z EPS shows
30-40% probability of QPF > 0.10 inch across central and eastern
zones.

Over time over the upcoming weekend, flow over North America
will becoming increasingly amplified, with midlevel ridging
building north through the Great Basin by Sunday, and as
troughing and embedded rotating shortwaves remains in place
across the Great Lakes/Midwest. This synoptic evolution will
drive the associated cold front through SW KS Saturday, with
winds becoming light NEly. While cool advection will be modest
to nonexistent Saturday, a reinforcing push of noticeably cooler
and drier air is expected Sunday. Given these trends, NBM
correctly shows a downward cooling trend in its max temperature
grids Sunday and Monday, with high temperatures several degrees
below normal, near 80, Monday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm
coverage appears most favored for Saturday evening - Sunday
morning, as the second, final push of cooler/drier air arrives.
Along those lines, MCS generation is most likely Saturday night
into early Sunday, when locally heavy rainfall is expected
again, and at least marginally severe hail/wind is possible. A
relative minimum in temperatures is expected sunrise Monday, as
northeast flow and dry/cool advection allows for a cool morning
well down into the mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Aviation weather will be good through this TAF period with the
only sensible weather impact being wind direction/speed. The
afternoon winds will be from the west-southwest at 12 to 16
knots, becoming light and variable by early this evening. A cold
front will push south overnight, reaching southwest Kansas
terminals in the 10-14Z time frame when winds will become
northeasterly, increasing back to 14 to 18 knots sustained.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid