743
FXUS64 KFWD 051115
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
615 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Showers and storms continue to move south across the eastern half
of our forecast area this morning. While some severe wind gusts
were observed earlier, the storms have remained sub-severe. The
bigger concern going into this morning is the increasing flooding
threat across the DFW Metroplex and south, where heavy rain is
and will continue to fall. With the morning commute on the
horizon, make sure to keep updated with road and weather
conditions this morning.

No major changes were made to the short term forecast, aside from
including new model data and observations. I have also broadened
the potential area for patchy fog tomorrow morning further along
the Red River and areas near/east of I-35. Otherwise, the previous
forecast discussion for the short term remains valid.

Prater

Previous Discussion:
/Today through Thursday Afternoon/

Currently, a stout MCS is currently moving south through North
Texas as a shortwave trough transits through the Central Plains.
RAP analysis shows 8-9 degC/km lapse rates and abundant
instability, allowing for a continued threat for strong to severe-
caliber wind and hail threats through this morning. As the
cluster has taken on quite a bowing structure, damaging wind gusts
will remain the primary threat along the leading edge of the
line. Additionally, PWATs > 1.5" will promote a continued flood
threat, especially for areas that have received heavy rain in the
last few days. A Flood Watch remains in effect through this
morning for areas east of I-35 that are expected to receive the
majority of this morning`s rainfall.

Just behind this MCS, a weak cold front will move south across
the region as the base of the shortwave trough continues to swing
into the Deep South. This front will help to make outdoor
conditions a bit more bearable by bringing slightly cooler and
less humid air to North and Central Texas. Expect afternoon highs
to peak in the mid 80s to low 90s. Slightly drier air filtering
into the region, coupled with those cooler temperatures, will help
to keep afternoon heat indices below Heat Advisory criteria for
the majority of the region.

The weak front will eventually stall across southern Central
Texas. Lingering storms near the frontal boundary will be possible
through this afternoon, but with subsident high surface pressure
quickly moving into the region, coverage will be very isolated.
All rain should come to an end by this evening, with most of the
region continuing to experience northeasterly winds behind the
stalled front. The surface high will keep winds light and
conditions fairly clear going into Thursday. Saturated soils and
more efficient radiational processes will allow for patchy
fog/mist overnight into Thursday morning, mainly east of I-35.

Thursday afternoon will be a tad warmer in the 90s region-wide as
southerly winds shift the stalled front back northward as a warm
front.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 409 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024/
Update:

Not much change has been made to the previous long term forecast
aside from incorporating new long term NBM guidance, therefore the
discussion below remains valid. The biggest uncertainty as of
this issuance is the storm potential on Friday afternoon as a
front stalls near the Red River. There still remains a low chance
for precipitation, as some ensemble and cluster guidance shows
slightly wetter solutions during Friday afternoon. The lack of
upper level forcing for Friday atop the stalled front is keeping
exact coverage and intensity a bit ambiguous. With all this in
mind, have kept the previous forecast`s 15-20% PoPs across
portions of North Texas for now.

Prater

Previous Discussion:
/Wednesday Night and Beyond/

Mid-level high pressure will push overhead from the west Wednesday
night into Thursday, allowing for our first day without any rain
chances over our forecast area Thursday. With sunny skies region-
wide and rain-free conditions, expect afternoon highs to peak in
the mid- to upper 90s across much of North and Central Texas
Thursday afternoon.

Surface low pressure transiting east across Ontario and the Great
Lakes region will drag a weak cold front south across the Plains
toward North Texas Thursday night into Friday. Confidence is
highest in the frontal boundary stalling near or just north of the
Red River early Friday. High-resolution guidance over the next
few days will help increase our confidence in a more precise
placement of this boundary. Although mid-level ridging and a
subtle capping inversion will likely inhibit widespread convection
from developing during peak heating Friday afternoon, convergence
in the vicinity of the surface trough may offer enough lift to
get an isolated thunderstorm or two (~15-20% chance) going across
portions of North Texas Friday afternoon/evening. Weak flow aloft
will limit the severe threat, but a strong storm or two capable of
producing small hail and gusty downburst winds remains possible.
If any storms develop, they will quickly diminish late Friday
evening with the loss of daytime heating.

An upper trough looks to dig south over the Northern Great Plains
by the weekend shunting the overhead ridge back to the south and
west. This will put portions of the Southern Plains back under
active northwest flow aloft. Periodic chances for MCS activity
will persist through the remainder of the weekend into early next
week, with the greatest chances for additional rainfall residing
north of the I-20 corridor into Oklahoma. Slightly above-average
temperatures in the low to mid-90s are expected over the weekend.

Long-range guidance is in decent agreement that a stronger cold
front will push into North Texas in the Sunday-Monday time frame,
increasing chances for at least isolated to scattered convection
across the region. North-northeasterly winds, increased
cloudiness, and potential rainfall may help nudge temperatures
back down into the mid- to upper 80s early next week.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Two cluster of storms are currently making their way across the
region this morning. The northern of the two clusters should be
out of the D10 TAF sites within the next hour or two. ACT will be
impacted by the western edge of the storms over the next few
hours, but should be in the clear by mid-morning (~15Z). While
guidance continues to keep MVFR cigs through early afternoon,
upstream observations show that the passing storms have scoured
low-level moisture enough to prevail VFR in their wake. A weak
cold front will move south today, shifting winds out of the
north-northeast through the rest of today.

There is potential for patchy mist at the D10 TAF sites tomorrow
morning as winds become light and skies are mostly clear.
Additionally, while guidance is hinting at MVFR cigs returning to
ACT tomorrow morning, better probabilities remain to the south.
Winds will eventually return to south flow after midnight tonight.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  71  94  74  94 /  30   0   0   0  20
Waco                91  71  93  72  93 /  40   0   0   0   5
Paris               87  64  91  69  89 /  30   0   0   0  20
Denton              90  68  93  70  93 /  20   0   0   0  20
McKinney            89  67  93  71  92 /  40   0   0   0  20
Dallas              91  71  95  74  94 /  40   0   0   0  20
Terrell             89  67  91  71  92 /  50   0   0   0  20
Corsicana           91  72  93  73  94 /  70   0   0   0  10
Temple              93  73  93  72  95 /  30   5   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       92  69  96  71  95 /  10   0   0   0  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ093>095-104>107-
120>123-135-148.

&&

$$