Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 032331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK...ONLY UPDATE TO THE CURRENT OBS.
WILL ALLOW THE RED FLAG TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ONLY ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS FIRE WEATHER. RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM CDT FOR HUMIDITY 15 TO 20 PERCENT...WINDS
20 TO 35 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION EAST OF A BISMARCK-MINOT LINE.

OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOVE THE FROST CUTOFF WITH MIN TEMPERATURES
38 OR ABOVE. WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TOMORROW AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. WEDNESDAY HIGHS UPPER 60S JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER 80S NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN WITH THE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH TIME THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW
DEEPENS AND MIGRATES INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE WEEKEND WITH
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP THROUGH ON SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPIATION WILL FALL
ACROSS THE SOUTH. A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
AND WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

GUSTY NORTH WINDS REMAINED IN PLACE AT KBIS...KJMS...AND KMOT AS
OF 23Z ON THE 3RD...HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS STATEWIDE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH 01Z OR 8
PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY
BROUGHT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH WILL FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE WINDS CO-LOCATE
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 17-22 PERCENT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEE THE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR SPECIFIC COUNTIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
AND WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN
FALL TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-013-023-
025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...MM
FIRE WEATHER...WAA


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