Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 262040
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
340 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS OF 2030 UTC...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING....WITH A DIURNAL DOWN
TREND WITH SUNSET. GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES OF 500-700 J/KG AND VERY
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 12 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM AND 16-18 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WASHINGTON AND IDAHO. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS...AGAIN WITH WEAK IMPULSES PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON. 12 UTC
NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RATHER WEAK ML CAPE IN THE 200-500
J/KG RANGE...WITH SEVERE CONVECTION AS A RESULT NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER....PRECIPITABLE  WATER VALUES OF 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
POINTS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 0.30 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FORECAST ISSUES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING AN H500 TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST US INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY. AS THE
H500 TROUGH MERGES INTO A COOL UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA...THE
ASSOCIATED H850 FLOW WITH THIS COLD UPPER FLOW BRINGS IN PRETTY
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WITH EVEN A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. FRIDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S
NORTH AND 60S SOUTH AND BY SATURDAY MORNING WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE FOR TODAY OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. KMOT AND KJMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY
TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT THE KISN TERMINAL TONIGHT AROUND 04-08 UTC. WILL ALSO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING FORMATION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AYD


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