Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 260011
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
711 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT GIVEN GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE 20-22 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS OF A BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WINDS
IN THE FAR EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THIS AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

CURRENTLY...WINDS GUSTING TO 43 MPH AT JAMESTOWN...WITH GUSTS TO
41 MPH AT CARRINGTON LAST HOUR. SOME PEAKS OF SUN PROBABLY ADDING
TO THE INCREASED MIXING. BUT GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLACKEN AND FALL/RISE COUPLET HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THE 5 PM
EXPIRATION AND EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW CRITERIA BY THIS
TIME WITH A QUICK DROP OFF THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

TONIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER THE MONDAY
REGION TONIGHT. A IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL INDUCE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
UTILIZING THE MAXIMUM WET BULB TEMPERATURE ALOFT INDICATES SNOW
TONIGHT AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY. SNOW RATIOS ARE LOW
AND THUS WE ARE GETTING SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS FROM
AROUND TROTTERS SOUTHEAST THROUGH DICKINSON TO HETTINGER. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO END BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. SHOULD BE WARMER THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY 30S EAST TO 40S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITH
SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY:
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF
THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM ADVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A WARM LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE LEADING/AHEAD OF THE
WARMING AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A NARROW BAND ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES
OF FREEZING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY CHANCES OF RAIN BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE TEENS EAST TO THE
LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY FROM AROUND 40 EAST TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.

A WARM DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW THAT ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

GENERALLY MILD AND DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL BRING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CEILINGS IN STRATO-CUMULUS/STRATUS WILL PREVAIL AT
KMOT/KJMS/KBIS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO
MVFR THURSDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND A BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT KISN AND KDIK LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD





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