Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 040933
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AS A RESULT
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW SHOULD BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES ARE BUILDING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BITTERLY COLD AIR
IS ALREADY MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS BELOW. WITH CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH READINGS AROUND
30 BELOW.

ONE MORE COLD NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE A RAPID AND WELCOME
WARM UP ARRIVES THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS WE ENTER A MUCH MILDER PATTERN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FEW HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE LINGERING
WIND CHILLS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WE REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BUT WITH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER AND WEAKER WITH A WAVE JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH
VERY LIGHT QPF FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN BRINGS ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING WAVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE GFS/GEM BRING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
RESULTS IN A LITTLE MORE QPF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HANGING ON OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS/GEM
ARE THEN DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL
UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BASICALLY BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ADDING A MENTION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE THEN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS DOES BRING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD (WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT) WHICH IS
A SWITCH FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT
THE ECMWF REMAINS WARM AND DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS IN SNOW EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ





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