Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 220239

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
939 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Issued at 937 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Cloud cover continues to gradually diminish from west to east.
Over the north central, winds have been a little slower to taper
off, so have increased wind speeds a bit through the late evening.
Remainder of forecast looks good.

UPDATE Issued at 710 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Winds will continue to gradually decrease through the evening so
have allowed the wind advisory over the southwest to expire.
Elsewhere, a few very light rain showers linger over portions of
northwest/north central North Dakota as the trough lifts through,
so have added a mention of isolated showers for a couple of hours.
Only other change was to delay the clearing of cloud cover a bit
this evening as it has been a bit reluctant to clear out.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Wind Advisory remains in effect for the southwest until 6 PM MDT

As a surface low continues on a northeast push into central
Manitoba, showers in the east and gusty westerly winds will continue
to dissipate through the afternoon/early evening. Tonight cool
Canadian air will sag into ND, dropping overnight lows into the 30s.
Southwest areas may dip into the upper 20s.

Sunday afternoon through Monday another cold front is forecast to
move across the state. The preceding warm front will produce highs
in the upper 50s and upper 60s; generally another seasonably warm
day for most of western and central ND on Sunday. Winds will be
breezy Sunday. Northern areas will have a slight chance for rain in
the afternoon, as the front begins to nudge into ND. The strongest
winds are expected on Monday in association with the surface low
digging into the Northern Great Lakes which is a favorable location
for strong winds over western and central ND. BUFKIT soundings are
indicating peak winds at the top of the mixed layer around 50kts.
Momentum transfer is likely as phasing between surface and 850mb
winds are highlighted well within the 12Z GFS/ECMWF. How much energy
will transfer to the surface is questionable at this point. A wind
headline may be needed for Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

A progression of surface lows is projected to march across the
Northern Plains through the extended forecast. Occasional chances
for precipitation and windy conditions will prevail through much of
the period. The 12Z model suite provides good agreement on a
strong surface low advancing into the region Thursday and Friday.
Below average temperatures with highs in the upper 30s and 40s are
expected. A chance for light snow may also be possible with this
system late in the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 710 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected. Gusty northwest winds will diminish
this evening. Gusty southwest winds expected on Sunday.




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