Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271944

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
244 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

The focus in the short term will be the threat for severe
thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening. At 2 PM CDT a
warm front extended through southwest North Dakota followed by a
cold front just entering the far west. This will create a narrow
band of favorable instability and shear across South Central into
Southeast North Dakota this evening. The latest RAP soundings
show the CAP breaking around 6-7 PM over central North Dakota with
the majority of convection moving east of the James River Valley
after 3 or 4 am CDT. Do not see much more than marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms as the latest sounding analogues show
marginal large hail with a low threat for tornadoes. Also the 15Z
SREF focuses the larger threat south of the state tonight. However
will keep the mention of large hail and damaging winds going from
late afternoon through early morning as the threat definately

On Wednesday the cold front will have moved through the region and
showers will be ending by noon east. Cooler and dryer air will
be in place. Minimum relative humidity will still fall into the
lower 20s southwest but the gusty winds will have moved east by

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

In the extended the global models still bring a closed upper low
across North Dakota Thursday and Friday exiting the region
Saturday. This will bring instability showers and isolated
thunderstorms with the the best chances for showers north and
east. This will also herald a cool start to July with high
temperatures Saturday in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Warmer weather
will arrive early next week and by the Fourth highs will return to
the 80s to lower 90s. The best chance for showers will be
Thursday night and Friday with the passage of the upper low
followed by warm and dry weather Sunday through Tuesday, the
Fourth Of July.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

At noon CDT a warm front extended from low pressure in
Saskatchewan south through western North Dakota. An associated
cold front extended through eastern Montana. The frontal system
will move east this afternoon and tonight and will be the focus
for thunderstorm development. The best chance for storms are
expected to be from KBIS-KJMS between 00-06Z. Otherwise VFR




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