Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 301754
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
15 UTC HRRR TRYING TO CONVEY THE ANTICIPATED BREAKS IN ACTIVITY
BETWEEN THE CURRENT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ND
AT THIS TIME...AND THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BY MID AFTERNOON. DID ADD A MENTION OF SEVERE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL 21-00 UTC ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR AND
LOW LEVEL HELICITY. THE LATEST HRRR IS NOT A STRONG WITH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY CONVECTION OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. STRONG STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT INTO NORTH
DAKOTA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY STRONG SHEAR/LOW
LEVEL HELICITY WILL EXIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AROUND 20/21Z
AND LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE FROM AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...DUE TO THE
EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTION...AND WEAK TORNADOES DUE TO THE STRONG
SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY. WILL FRESHEN UP PRODUCTS INCLUDING
THE HWO WITH LATEST THINKING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR RAPID CITY IS LIFTING
NORTH. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS HAVE THE RAIN
ARRIVING IN BISMARCK AROUND 9 AM CDT. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
FOR THIS. ALSO FOG NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THOUGHT. CONFINED
THE FOG MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL BY MID AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTH
NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE LIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DO
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH






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