Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 242306

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
606 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

No major changes were needed with this update. Just blended the
latest observations to the current forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Quiet weather continues tonight into Monday but active weather
returns Monday night through Tuesday night.

Currently, sunny skies across western and central ND with Cumulus
just developing. Expect increasing cu field for the next couple
of hours before clouds flatten lift and diminish toward evening.
Overall, an nice Sunday afternoon.

Clear to partly cloudy tonight with lows in the mid 50s to lower

Monday will be another warm day with highs climbing into the mid
80s northeast to the mid 90s southwest. expect mostly sunny skies
for most of the day Monday. Increasing moisture advection begins
tonight, especially southwest and upper level ridging shifts east
allowing for a number of shortwaves to begin traversing the
forecast area, with the initial wave moving into the southwest
late Monday afternoon. Weak to modest instability will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms to the southwest late Monday

A modest low level jet develops over central and eastern ND
Monday night ahead of the aforementioned shortwaves. The SREF
calibrated probability of severe weather has backed off a bit from
previous runs, just nosing the 5% probability into the southwest
Monday evening. The deterministic models are not as strong with
the low level jet either with the GFS probably the strongest, and
thus the most liberal with spreading qpf north and east through
south central and into eastern ND Monday night. The EC is quite a
bit drier with hardly any QPF. With such a spread in solutions we
trended a bit lower than guidance, keeping mainly chance pops
Monday night.

The trend of the large spread in qpf solutions continue through
Tuesday and into Tuesday night. Given the synoptic pattern of
frequent impulses traveling through a quasi-zonal flow this seems
reasonable and continued the trend of lowering pops a bit from
guidance. Perhaps the best agreement is late in the period
(Tuesday night) when the GFS/EC/NAM all show indicate qpf moving
into northwest ND associated with a shortwave trough dropping into
the area from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun
Jul 24 2016

Today`s models continue to depict a northwesterly flow aloft
Wednesday through Friday, with embedded shortwaves moving through
the flow. Chances of showers and thunderstorms each period with
slightly below average highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

By Saturday, the GFS depicts a digging upper level trough
in the Gulf of Alaska/British Columbia coast will induce a
downstream ridge over the Rockies/western Plains. By Sunday the flow
over the Northern Plains becomes southwesterly, which is generally
more conducive to the development of more organized synoptic systems
that promote prolonged low level import of higher dewpoints/moisture
coupled with a higher frequency of upper level energy impulses
resulting in more widespread instability. The ECMWF, however, is
about a day slower with the digging trough, suggesting that North
Dakota would be under the influence of a broad upper ridge through
the weekend. Model consensus would keep chances of thunderstorms
very low, so resulting forecast is for a mainly dry weekend with
seasonable temperatures in the 80s to around 90.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

VFR ceilings and visibilities will prevail through the period.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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