Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 261509

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1009 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Issued at 1007 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

With visibilities improving will let the advisory expire most of
the area but extended the dense fog advisory in Mountrail county
through noon where persistent visibilities near zero continue.

UPDATE Issued at 845 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The edges of the fog area are eroding but enough reduced
visibility to extend fog advisory through 10 am CDT. Otherwise
as the fog lifts the skies will become partly sunny west but
clouds will linger central and east.

UPDATE Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Dense fog continues over portions of western into central North
Dakota early this morning, though a little improvement is starting
to show up on the western fringes. Expect the majority of the fog
to linger through early morning with a gradual improvement going
into mid-morning. Previous forecast reflected this well so minimal
updates were needed.

UPDATE Issued at 417 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Quick update to add a dense fog advisory over northwestern and
parts of central ND. Reports of 1/4 mile visibility or less has
become more widespread within the past hour. Therefore decided to
raise awareness of rapidly changing visibility for the morning


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Fog and drizzle with stratus clouds - regarding how long they will
persist today - will be the main concern in the short term.

Currently...the exiting upper level shortwave was over eastern
ND/western MN with lingering showers from the Turtle Mountains to
James Valley. The large stratus cloud shield associated with the
departing system extended across much of Alberta and
Saskatchewan...southward to the Dakotas/Minnesota/Iowa. The western
edge of the stratus/fog in ND extended from the Montana border in
northwestern ND to Dickinson and Hettinger. This western edge is
mainly ground-based fog...with fog forming as the stratus began
retreating Tuesday evening and radiational cooling allowed
temperatures to drop into the low-mid 30s. Drizzle was noted in the
stratus deck and will continue to mention patchy light drizzle in
central ND through daybreak. Meanwhile a surface warm front
extended from a low over southern Alberta/Saskatchewan southward
across eastern MT to western SD.

The surface warm front will move east across the region today, and a
dry westerly flow should erode the stratus cloud shield from west to
east throughout the day today. Timing of this erosion of clouds will
be key...especially for temperatures. We expect the southwest to
reach high temperatures in the mid and upper 60s. Meanwhile the
James Valley, where there were reports of 0.50 to over 2 inches of
rainfall from Tuesday...combined with stratus lingering into the
afternoon...may only see highs in the upper 40s today.

A building upper level ridge tonight will set up for more warm
advection from the southwest. Lows tonight should range from the
lower 40s southwest to the mid 30s north.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Warm Thursday, then windy Friday bringing cooler conditions for the
weekend highlight the long term.

Warming continues Thursday with a Pacific airmass building in behind
Wednesday`s warm front. Expecting highs Thursday from the lower/mid
60s Turtle Mountains to the James Valley to the lower 70s in the

On Friday an upper level shortwave riding eastward along the
Canadian border will sweep a cold front southeastward across the
state. Gusty northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph will usher in cooler
air. Highs Friday should be around 50 north and reach the 60s
in the south...but highs Saturday should be only in the 40s across
the state. An upper level shortwave emanating from a storm system in
California/Nevada on Friday will move northeast across the Rockies
into the northern plains states. This will bring some moisture back
into the region with chances of rain...possibly mixed with snow at
times...on Friday night and Saturday.

Another storm system moving east across the Rockies and into the
plains will bring chances of rain...possibly mixed with snow at our area Sunday night and Monday. Seasonal temperatures i
the 40s and 50s are expected Sunday through Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions in fog will continue through mid
morning over much of western and central North Dakota. Conditions
will gradually improve by late this morning. Further east, low
cigs will remain over KJMS through much of the day, with a
gradual improvement this evening.


Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for NDZ010.



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