Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 090339
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
939 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Patchy clouds along the Missouri river and portions of the Devils
Lake basin. Otherwise mostly clear. This will allow cooler
temperatures. Lowered to -25 below southwest. That will lower wind
chills to -35 to -40 below southwest by morning.

UPDATE Issued at 652 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Now that its dark the satellite FOG/LOW CLOUD channel is
detecting stratus areas well. Of particular note is the lake
effect stratus originating along the Van Hook arm of Lake
Sakakawea southeast through Bismarck and Mandan. Other areas of
clouds are scattered around the northern plains with the majority
of the in-state clouds across north central North Dakota.
Otherwise skies were mostly clear. With new and deep snow cover
and winds subsiding this could be quite a night for temperature
forecasts. Will begin by lowering the min temperatures about 5
degrees southwest to about 18-22 below. Lighter winds and clear
skies should allow temperatures to fall there rapidly. A mix of
clouds and wind north should keep temperatures from falling as
rapidly as the southwest so no change there. Finally the narrow
band of clouds south central should keep Bismarck and Mandan a
bit milder tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Current surface analysis places low to the east of James
Bay...while high builds into the plains. Upper level analysis
places flat ridge over the west coast with northwest flow over
our area. Frigid airmass remains over the area with winds
gradually diminishing as high builds in.

For tonight...high continues to settle over the area with
frigid temperatures expected. Winds will be light...but enough to
produce dangerous wind chills as low as 35 below zero over the
area. Therefore...have put out a wind chill advisory throughout
all of western and central North Dakota including the James River
Valley.

On Friday...frigid wind chills remain into the morning, with highs
maybe pushing to around zero with surface high overhead. Quiet
weather remains through the day before a modest short wave pushing
through west-northwest flow aloft approaches the area, bringing
late night snow chances to the southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Aforementioned short wave pushes through the northern plains
bringing snow chances to the area. Still some question on where
the primary area of snow will go as models are varying from the
middle of North Dakota to southern South Dakota. At any
rate...will go with the average for now put the greatest chances
over our southern locations. Wind chills may also remain a
concern.

For the remainder of the extended...occasional weak disturbances
moving through the area from time to time bringing a few snow
chances. Main concern during this period will be late Monday into
Tuesday when a very cold airmass is expected to settle into the
area. Some models are suggesting some stronger gusty winds behind
this cold front, but a shift east would put us in not such cold
air with lesser winds. Will have to keep a close eye on this
system over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Scattered areas of stratus clouds will make aviation forecasting
challenging tonight. A broad high pressure region remains over the
state tonight. However lake effect clouds will maintain MVFR
conditions across KBIS as long as teh lake effect persists.
KMOT will also be impacted by an area of stratus moving through.
KDIK is more uncertain as models forecast IFR forming in low
clouds and fog above teh new snow cover after 06z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 652 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

The recent cold weather has lowered the water temperature
sufficiently to form ice on the Missouri River in the Bismarck
and Mandan area. Sheets of ice are moving downstream and into
Lake Oahe as there is yet no continuous ice cover on the lake.
Historically, the ice has been known to collect in the river bends
near the University of Mary and create rapidly rising water in the
Bismarck and Mandan area as ice cover encroaches northward.

As the weather forecast calls for continued below normal
temperatures well into the middle of December, ice formation will
also continue. The Missouri River should rise between 4 and 7
feet as it becomes fully covered in ice.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...WAA



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