Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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379
FXUS63 KBIS 260442
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1142 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Latest satellite imagery continues to show cirrus streaming from
southwest into north central ND. Webcams prior to sunset were
showing a partly to mostly cloudy sky condition. Have held onto
the higher clouds through 09z. Thereafter, the 400-300mb RH per
latest model suites show thinning of high level moisture while
at the same time moving it southbound. Current forecast is on
track.

UPDATE Issued at 936 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Light precipitation continues to hold south of the area, so have
removed chances through the remainder of the night. Have also
increased cloud cover with high clouds spread throughout much of
the far south.

UPDATE Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

A few very light showers continue to try and sneak across the
South Dakota border early this evening. If any do make it across,
they should be short lived. Otherwise, a quiet evening continues.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Post-frontal isolated showers will linger through the afternoon
along the south central and James River Valley near the South
Dakota border. Chances for more substantial precipitation and
thunderstorms will likely remain south and east of the forecast
area this afternoon and evening.

Upper level zonal flow will gradually transition to northwest flow
as ridging builds to the west. Wednesday will be dry with highs in
the lower 80s northeast to the upper 80s southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

The upper ridge continues to build and move east on Thursday, but
begins to break down on Friday with an approaching shortwave
trough. Most of the forcing will remain north of the international
border, but a surface boundary and low pressure should provide
enough lift for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
through Saturday morning. CAPE and shear both still look fairly
marginal, so we are not expecting severe storms at this time.

Ridging once again builds to the west, keeping us in a mostly dry
weather pattern with only slight chances of showers and
thunderstorms here and there.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Light winds this Taf period (around 10kt or less) with vfr
cigs/vsbys and no precipitation.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...KS



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