Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 262332
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
632 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

High pressure will continue to build over the forecast area
tonight. Currently we are still near our max highs for the day,
and it remains breezy along and east of the Highway 83 corridor.
Expect winds to diminish fairly quickly this evening.

No significant changes needed other than a minor increase in
clouds across the west. Will updated latest sensible weather
elements and blend to mid evening temperatures.

Next update we may be able to see how quickly temperatures begin
to fall and thus see if we may need to adjust our current frost
advisory.

Will send updated text products shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Frost tonight highlights the short term forecast.

Issued a Frost Advisory for much of western and central North
Dakota generally east of US Highway 85. Undercut the 12 UTC
guidance consensus for lows tonight given the observed temperature
pattern from this morning which came in cooler than than forecast.
Thus, in a similar setup with good radiational cooling tonight,
widespread lows in the lower to mid 30s are expected for the
aforementioned areas. Across the far west, low level warm air
advection through the night may hold temperatures high enough to
prevent frost. However, this will have to be monitored.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Mild conditions through the period highlight the extended
forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites are in agreement on an upper level ridge
building across the Northern Plains Wednesday and Thursday.
Thereafter, the upper level flow transitions to southwest aloft
across the region on the upstream side of the ridge. This favors
slightly above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 60s and
70s for the period. The chance for showers and thunderstorms
returns Saturday night through Sunday as sufficient moisture may
return to the region coupled with impulses embedded in the upper
level southwest flow potentially ejecting out of the digging west
coast trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

VFR conditions expected through the 00Z TAF period. Winds drop to
less than 10 knots tonight and remain light through the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 8 AM CDT /7 AM
MDT/ Tuesday for NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-
045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
AVIATION...TWH



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