Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 171829
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
129 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 18 UTC AS THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
AND BENEFICIAL RAINS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. STILL A LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE
VARIOUS MEMBERS OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AGAIN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE
OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC WITH WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS
TO LOAD CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE EVERYTHING IS RIGHT ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN COMMENCES
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER
THE CONUS SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND IS
PROJECTED TO EVENTUALLY COMBINE WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW...EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN COMING
TO AN END THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN STREAM COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN UPPER LOW...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHERN UPPER LOW STARTS TO LIFT TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING OVER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP IN THE MORNING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES PUSHING NORTHWARD IN THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND AFFILIATED COLD FRONT QUICKLY
APPROACH IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE WEST...WITH CHANCES INCREASING IN THE
EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL BECOME A CONCERN AS THE FRONT
PUSHES IN AS SOUNDING ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONGER WINDS MIXING
DOWN AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH...REMAINING GUSTY OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INCREASED WINDS QUITE A BIT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

ON SUNDAY SOME PRECIP WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA AS SYSTEM CLOSES
OFF OVER MANITOBA AND WORKS TOWARDS MINNESOTA KEEPING SOME WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE GOING. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH
THE NORTHERLY FLOW. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS INTO MONDAY
AS LOW SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OFF TO THE EAST.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE GREATEST
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE KMOT/KBIS/KJMS TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD






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