Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 250600
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1200 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Made a few changes to temperatures. Lowered min temps south
central and into JRV where skies have cleared, or will shortly,
and temperatures have dropped. Didn`t drop temperatures too low
as a large area of stratus continues to move towards the area.
Otherwise no significant changes to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 853 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

No significant changes with this forecast update. Continued 20-30
PoPs across western North Dakota into the early overnight as the
impulse across northeast Montana as of 0250 UTC will continue to
propagate southeast.

UPDATE Issued at 531 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Quick update to increase PoPs for this evening for radar trends
through 23 UTC across central North Dakota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Latest water vapor imagery shows two distinct shortwaves, one in
the northern branch and the other within the southern branch. Both
branches/shortwave troughs are more or less in phase with each
other as they shift through the Dakotas this afternoon. The first
shortwave can be seen in north central North Dakota with an area
of enhanced radar reflectivities north of Minot. A more widespread
light snow event continues over far south central/James River
Valley associated with a shortwave trough scooting northeast from
South Dakota. Ellendale earlier reported a half inch of snow on
the ground. Light snow across the far north will taper off by
00z/6PM CST Saturday, while the snow in the James River Valley
will exit by midnight tonight.

Farther upstream into Alberta, Saskatchewan, and northern
Montana, a couple more shortwaves will shift into western/central
North Dakota tonight with pockets of light snow, but nothing
significant. Overnight lows will range between 7F and 13F above.

For Sunday, warm air advection shifts from eastern Montana into
western North Dakota. Expect partly to mostly sunny conditions
and dry, with highs 22F to 32F.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Overall, a split flow initially gradually consolidates by
midweek. That being said, a potent southern stream upper low
ejects out from the desert southwest Wednesday and into the Ohio
Valley Thursday. The Canadian Model is the only model indicating
some potential for precipitation extending back into the southern
James River Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. And while the
forecast builder hangs onto this idea, it may begin to dwindle as
the GFS/ECMWF indicate dry weather with the precipitation signal
farther east. Otherwise, despite some ripples within the upper
flow pattern during the upcoming week, nothing of any consequence
in terms of precipitation stands out. Temperatures will moderate
with highs in the 30s, just about where we would expect to be for
this time of year. The next chance of potential widespread
precipitation continues to manifest itself in the Saturday through
Sunday timeframe, as both the GFS/ECMWF have a Northern Rockies
trough advertised with precipitation into western/central ND. The
EMC GEFS QPF Plumes advertise this as well. This could become the
main highlight in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018


Decks of MVFR stratus are expected to impact much of western and
central ND overnight. Those ceilings will likely linger through
Sunday morning from the Turtle Mountain region south to KJMS.
However, confidence in the exact timing that the MVFR cloud decks
move in and out of individual terminals is moderate at best, so
some of the 06 UTC TAFs will likely require later amendments based
on observational trends. Regardless, we do expect VFR conditions
to prevail area-wide by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH



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