Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 010957
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
457 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ONCE AGAIN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
STRONG WEST WINDS AROUND 40 MPH WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS IS WHERE THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
PAINT A 6 TO 8 MB/6HR PRESSURE RISE AND A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER FAR NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. ELSEWHERE SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. DRY
CONDITIONS...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AROUND 20 PERCENT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE GUSTY WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

RATHER NORMAL EARLY APRIL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

A WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. PERHAPS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MAY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THE 00 UTC NAM AND GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS DO DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
TRANSFER. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL...SUPPORTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND SPORADIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENTS WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 10
PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-
025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ








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