Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 281510
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
910 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Snow continues to slowly spread west. Warm air over the James
river valley resulting in mainly rain today changing to rain and
snow tonight so accumulations likely to hold off until tonight. IR
satellite imagery shows Dry slot wrapping into the east central so
some decrease in precipitation likely from east to west across
central North dakota temporarily this morning. Updated pops with
HRRR which seemed ok.

UPDATE Issued at 625 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

The only significant change to the going forecast was to update
pops based on latest radar and surface observations. Spread
categorical pops farther west to between Hettinger and
Bowman...and up north extended categorical pops to near Watford
City and Kenmare.

As of 6 AM the official snowfall at the Bismarck office was 4.4
inches. There have been quite a few reports of 3 to 6 inches over
central ND with highest totals so far of 6" at Center and
Underwood via social media. Expect periods of snow to continue
through the day across central ND as low pressure currently over
far northeast SD lifts into southeast ND and pretty much stalls
through Tuesday morning. Snow was reported at Carrington but it
looks like all rain so far with the storm from Jamestown south
through Dickey and Lamoure counties. Looks like we may see rain
for much of the day in the JRV. Uncertainty also remains over the
JRV in how long precipitation will remain as rain tonight, and
if/when it changes to snow. For now will keep all Headlines going
as is. Updated text products will be sent shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Winter Storm Warning continues through the short term period. 06
UTC surface analysis showed a 978MB surface low just northwest of
Sioux Falls SD. This is very similar to the ECMWF/GFS 00 UTC 28
NOV 6 hour forecast position, and a little deeper than the NAM and
Canadian. The latest surface analysis shows a 977MB surface low
between Aberdeen and Eiderdown SD. Latest deterministic models
seem to have a good handle on the initialization of this system.

From the latest satellite imagery, you can see the development of
the TROWAL and deformation zone setting up over North Dakota.
Latest radar imagery shows precipitation has pushed west reaching
all but the far northwest and southwest portions of ND.

There were no significant changes made to the short term portion
of the forecast, only some minor adjustment to PoPS/Wx. Current
surface analysis shows rain continuing at KJMS but precipitation
has changed to snow at Carrington. Critical temperatures aloft
will remain over the James River Valley and although Carrington
has changed to snow, would not be surprised to see a transition
back to rain today from carrington south through the JRV and back
west as far as portions of Logan and Mcintosh counties.

There is a dry slot east of Bismarck that will likely move over
Bismarck and portions south around 12 UTC. Mesoscale models did
pick up on this with a brief period of a lack of ice, thus a
mention of mixed precipitation over portions of the south central
this morning. Evening shift also bumped up the winds in the west
today through tonight and used these winds inherited wind instead
of the blended model guidance which looked a bit low.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Tuesday morning, the surface and upper are still situated in the
vicinity of the ND/SD/MN border. But during the day the surface
reflection begins to lift north and east while the upper low
begins to weaken and starts propagating eastward. Snowfall
accumulations are expected to be pretty light Tuesday and Tuesday
night most areas, but with likely a little enhanced area of snow
wherever the deformation zone lingers. Tuesday will be windier
over central ND as gradient wind increase behind the departing
surface low, and pressure rises build north to south across the
area. Although snow amounts will be lighter, we could see some
areas of blowing and drifting snow with increasing SLR ratios. The
extent of blowing snow is uncertain though, given the wet nature
of the snow that will have fallen beforehand.

Things start to wind down Tuesday night and Wednesday, but do
expect light snow to continue most areas through Tuesday night and
then taper off from west to east on Wednesday.

Overall, snowfall totals from the latest deterministic models
have not changed much the past could of runs. Mesoscale models
have shown a slight shift in the band of highest snow, now mainly
along and west of the Highway 83 corridor, and lesser amounts
along and east of the Highway 3 corridor. Our current WSW is
mentioning a large swath of 8-12 inches across central ND with
some isolated 15 inch amounts possible. See no reason to deviate
from this, based on latest model guidance.

No changes from multi-model guidance in the latter portions of the
extended period. Highs mainly in the 20s Thursday and Friday, and
rising into the lower 30s by the weekend. A few chances of light
snow with a series of quick moving waves traversing the area, but
no big weather systems are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

A winter storm will impact all of western and central North
Dakota through Wednesday. Significant hazards to aviation can be
expected. Flight categories will fall to IFR-LIFR all terminals.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Wednesday for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>036-040>047-050.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for NDZ025-037-
048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH



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