Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 131354
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
854 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY. REFINED THE CLOUD COVER BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE FADING A BIT CENTRAL. UPPED
THE WINDS A BIT AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE CDFNT OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH STRATOCU DECK DROPPING SOUTH FROM ALBERTA AND WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. LATEST 10 UTC RAP LOOKS
TO BE A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN BRINGING HIGHER 850 MB MOISTURE INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER ACROSS THE WEST LATER THIS
MORNING AND OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES
TO POPS AT THIS TIME...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY NORTH OF THE
I94 CORRIDOR...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RAP/HRRR
ITERATIONS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE FROST ADVISORY AREA...THUS WILL KEEP IT GOING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WHICH WAS PUSHING A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE STATE. THE UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING A CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS THE WAVE / COLD FRONT PASS. THERE ARE A
WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH DIFFERING PLACEMENT...BUT DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE OPTED TO FAVOR THE MODELS WHICH BRING
THE RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. IN FACT...AM A
BIT CONCERNED WE MAY NOT HAVE TAKEN THE POPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH IF
THE 4.0KM WRF NMM VERIFIES. A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO KEPT THE RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-94.

THE NEXT CONCERN SURROUNDS THE FROST ADVISORY WHICH IS IN PLACE
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE HAVE
HELPED TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT IN SOME
LOCATIONS...BUT READINGS IN THE ADVISORY AREA REMAIN IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S. THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE RATHER THIN ON THEIR SOUTHERN
EDGE...AND WITH GFS LAMP GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTING FALLING
TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCATIONS...WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING SUNDAY LOOKS RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH
MID WEEK. PATCHY MORNING FROST CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW KEEPING SEASONABLY COOL AIR OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL WARM TO THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS...AND 70S FOR HIGHS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN U.S. COAST
ON THURSDAY WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THIS WAVE BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS BUT BOTH BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE EAST EARLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS NORTH. VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CEILINGS AS LOW AS 35
HUNDRED AGL KDIK-KISN-KMOT...5 THOUSAND AGL OR GREATER BIS-KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA





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